ENSO may affect the current hurricane season:

[bobgnote]

ENSO will control the path, of hurricanes and tropical storms. This cane season is predicted, to be milder than usual, but we shall see what actually happens, as an El Nino is expected to take over, at the end of Summer 2012.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

During the last several decades the number of El Niño events increased, and the number of La Niña events decreased.[51] The question is whether this is a random fluctuation or a normal instance of variation for that phenomenon or the result of global climate changes toward global warming.

The studies of historical data show that the recent El Niño variation is most likely linked to global warming. For example, one of the most recent results is that, even after subtracting the positive influence of decadal variation, shown to be possibly present in the ENSO trend,[52] the amplitude of the ENSO variability in the observed data still increases, by as much as 60% in the last 50 years.[53]

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Solar cycle 24 is predicted to max out, at 90 flares, which is the mildest cycle, since the one, which peaked in 1928.

The Earth is heating up, cool solar cycle or not.

Warming lands and waters are out-gassing CH4 and more CO2.

Not only are we suffering through WARMING, but also CLIMATE CHANGE. The climate change is a function of the warming.

What all this global warming means is climate will change. Since El Nino conditions are likely to prevail, the jet stream will tend to fend off Atlantic storms, during El Nino. But Sacramento, Ca. will tend to suffer warmer El Nino storms, their funky levees will fail, and Sacto will flood, with outlying communities. A Gulf hurricane, like Katrina may get forced right into NOLA or Houston.

The El Nino effect is not a bane, against canes. Studies found only one quarter of El Nino seasons had more storms, than normal. That is not complete protection, but if global warming intensifies this, the East Coast could be free.

But then along comes some La Nina. 2/3 of La Nina-affected seasons saw more Atlantic hurricanes make US landfall. Since storms will generally be more powerful, when an African hurricane does make US landfall, it will be on the order of Andrew.


El Niño could spell quick end to hurricane season - Houston Chronicle


Fewer storms forecast for 2012 Atlantic hurricane season - Chicago Tribune


Hurricanes May Increase in Gulf as El Nino Shifts in Pacific - Bloomberg


ENSO Information


Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion