Empirical Falsification Of the CAGW meme.

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Billy_Bob, Sep 27, 2017.

  1. Billy_Bob
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    Billy_Bob Platinum Member

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    With the rash of articles that are coming out and the Gavin Schmidt Twitter Trick now clearly evident as a blatant attempt at covering up the total failure of all modeling, I think its time to expose the modeling failure and how bad it really is..

    If we post up the current crop of Global Climate Models that were projections starting back in 1990 and then overlay the reality we find that all the modeling of the day has failed.

    SO lets show you how modeling is falsified by empirical review.

    cmip5-73-models-vs-obs-20n-20s-mt-5-yr-means11 Dr Roy Spencer.png

    When you create a model it is understood that empirical review after specified duration of time will confirm or falsify the model. If the system modeled and the empirical evidence diverge then the model is proven falsified and useless. At this point you start over and reassess why your modeling failed.

    In the above image all of the models fail because they diverged from reality. This means the perceived understanding of system has failed and must be redone. Any policy or actions taken are therefore based on a failed hypothesis.
     
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  2. Billy_Bob
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    Billy_Bob Platinum Member

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    upload_2017-9-27_20-24-45.png
    The divergence from reality is massive.. The hypothesis is therefore falsified.
     
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  3. Two Thumbs
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    So billions if not trillions of dollars dumped and it got .05C warmer since '95.


    awesome..
     
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  4. Billy_Bob
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    Now comes along Gavin Schmidt and Thomas Karl with their fantasy derived fiction.

    The first thing they did was to cool the past making the slope of warming double. (Karl Et Al)
    [​IMG]
    When that wasn't enough...

    The second thing they tried is to update the models and change the hind cast moving the point of convergence to 2010 (from 1990) erasing the massive divergence.
    upload_2017-9-27_21-34-17.png
    When that wasn't enough....

    The next thing they tried was to increase the size of the 95% confidence range to almost +/- 4.0 deg C. This is an error bar of 8 deg C.. Are the models so bad that they increased the target point because they don't know or is it an attempt to make it appear that the modeling has not failed and keep the meme alive. I say its the later..

    Everything they are doing is to keep the lie alive and NEVER address that their hypothesis was wrong and their understanding of the system they attempted to model is poor to nonexistent.
     
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    Last edited: Sep 27, 2017
  5. Two Thumbs
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    Trillions of dollars can make for some fuzzy math.
     
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  6. Manonthestreet
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    Manonthestreet Platinum Member Supporting Member

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  7. Fort Fun Indiana
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    Mods: Please move this thread to the "Conspiracy Theory" section.
     
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  8. Billy_Bob
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  9. Billy_Bob
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    Why? Its factually based. I provided you empirical evidence. Is your position so weak that you have to scream like a little child throwing a tantrum because you disagree? Common practice from the left wing cry babies who cant stand seeing their lies smashed to a pile of sand.

    Refute the empirical evidence or admit you want a pacifier and your safe space...
     
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  10. Billy_Bob
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    Can someone justify the intentional deception that is going on? Clearly I have shown that the CAGW meme is shown nothing short of total deception.
     
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