Do you think Democrats will take the House in 2018?

[Wyatt earp]

In this thread, we discuss the likelihood that Donald Trump's unpopularity will help Democrats win a majority in 2018, in the House of Representatives. Thanks.

They can possibly win the Senate by a slim majority, the House? Not a chance.

Say what..look at this map 24 Democrats are up for election compared to just 8 Republicans..


Tell me what states you think a Democrat will win in a red state for Senate

 

[Ted Frazier]

The Democrats cannot win on Trump's alleged unpopularity. They must win on their own popularity, and outside of a couple of select clubs, they have none.

Should the econ perform as widely predicted, they will sink entirely.

For the record, Billy, you just predicted Democrats will not win a majority. Correct?

 

[william the wie]

In this thread, we discuss the likelihood that Donald Trump's unpopularity will help Democrats win a majority in 2018, in the House of Representatives. Thanks.

They can possibly win the Senate by a slim majority, the House? Not a chance.

Say what..look at this map 24 Democrats are up for election compared to just 8 Republicans..


Tell me what states you think a Democrat will win




View attachment 171651

While the math is against the Ds in the senate the question is have the Ds screwed the pooch so bad that they will lose the house?

 

[Wyatt earp]

In this thread, we discuss the likelihood that Donald Trump's unpopularity will help Democrats win a majority in 2018, in the House of Representatives. Thanks.

They can possibly win the Senate by a slim majority, the House? Not a chance.

Say what..look at this map 24 Democrats are up for election compared to just 8 Republicans..


Tell me what states you think a Democrat will win




View attachment 171651

While the math is against the Ds in the senate the question is have the Ds screwed the pooch so bad that they will lose the house?

I don't predict over all senate and house races anymore, I thought for sure the senate was a lock for the Democrats in 2016, Republicans had way more seats up for grabs.

 

[cutter]

Normally the political party in power loses seats in mid-term elections. At least it does when you are dealing with normal democrat and republicans and Trump is anything but normal. Trump doesn’t represent Republicans or democrats, he represents the American people, thats why both parties fought against him, and still do. The American people will do whatever it takes to make America great again. With a great economy, low unemployment and pride in being American again the party that Trump chose to represent will win a super majority. The democrat party is going to find out you can fool the voters some of the time but not all of the time. The democrats will find out paybacks a bitch.

 

[william the wie]

The Democrats cannot win on Trump's alleged unpopularity. They must win on their own popularity, and outside of a couple of select clubs, they have none.

Should the econ perform as widely predicted, they will sink entirely.

For the record, Billy, you just predicted Democrats will not win a majority. Correct?

It's more complicated than that. In the senate Ds will almost certainly lose seats because the D incumbents were mostly dragged across the finish line by Obama in 2012. In the house if Trump campaigns for black, Hispanic and Asian R house candidates and/or one or more D states have epic financial problems then the odds favor the Rs, if either of those conditions are not met then it becomes a near coin flip. If neither condition is met then the Ds will win in the house.

 

[william the wie]

Normally the political party in power loses seats in mid-term elections. At least it does when you are dealing with normal democrat and republicans and Trump is anything but normal. Trump doesn’t represent Republicans or democrats, he represents the American people, thats why both parties fought against him, and still do. The American people will do whatever it takes to make America great again. With a great economy, low unemployment and pride in being American again the party that Trump chose to represent will win a super majority. The democrat party is going to find out you can fool the voters some of the time but not all of the time. The democrats will find out paybacks a bitch.

That is not a given. CA, IL, MA, NY & NJ state finances have been running on empty for decades. Out reach to minority R candidates has been effectively non-existent one or both of those changing is needed to win the mid-terms.

 

[Wry Catcher]

In this thread, we discuss the likelihood that Donald Trump's unpopularity will help Democrats win a majority in 2018, in the House of Representatives. Thanks.

The vote will be a referendum on the Republican Party and in particular the total lack of transparency by the R Leaders in the H. of Rep., the Senate and the White House. There should be no doubt in the mind of anyone who pays attention that McConnell and Ryan each engaged in Misfeasance and Non-feasance in the last years of the Obama Administration and during Trump's first year in office.

It will also tell us if the United States can survive as a House Divided.

The abject hate expressed by those above for Democrats and liberal leaning Americans is what prevents civil dialogue and discussions on solutions to problems.

 

[Toro]

The Democrats are going to pick up seats. Whether or not they win the House, I don't know.

But in almost every single election since Trump was elected, the Democrats have been gaining in votes, often by a lot.

 

[Toro]

Unpopular with who? Leftists. Black unemployment is the lowest in decades. They won't be voting against results like that.

except the economy was just fine in midterms in 2006, when the house flipped.

Or in 1986, when the Senate flipped.

Trump is massively unpopular, that's why the house will flip. Maybe the Senate, if we are lucky

You dumbasses still believe in polls, how funny.

In most of the elections since 2016, the polls have underestimated Democrats' actual votes while the Republicans have underperformed the polls.

 

[percysunshine]

In this thread, we discuss the likelihood that Donald Trump's unpopularity will help Democrats win a majority in 2018, in the House of Representatives. Thanks.

The vote will be a referendum on the Republican Party and in particular the total lack of transparency by the R Leaders in the H. of Rep., the Senate and the White House. There should be no doubt in the mind of anyone who pays attention that McConnell and Ryan each engaged in Misfeasance and Non-feasance in the last years of the Obama Administration and during Trump's first year in office.

It will also tell us if the United States can survive as a House Divided.

The abject hate expressed by those above for Democrats and liberal leaning Americans is what prevents civil dialogue and discussions on solutions to problems.

Yeah, yeah...but which team is going to win?

What is your prediction, and are you willing to lay money on it?

 

[Toro]

In all federal elections since Trump won, the average swing to the Democrats has been 16%.

In 2016, there were 38 districts that the Republicans won by 15% or less.

The Democrats have to pick up 24 seats to gain control of the House.

 

[dcbl]

In this thread, we discuss the likelihood that Donald Trump's unpopularity will help Democrats win a majority in 2018, in the House of Representatives. Thanks.

2 things

1 - Trump is not really unpopular, and certainly not as much as the media would have you believe.
2 - the map is very favorable towards republicans and has been for the better part of a decade

republicans made a concerted and successful effort to grab power in State Legislatures before the last census

so when districts were drawn; republicans had much more influence

also; one of the most important measures of "popularity" for a president is the small business confidence index

that number is higher than it has been since the early 1980's

the real signs point towards republican gains in the Senate & holding court in the House

and if things stay as they are now; Trump is very likely to win a 2nd term

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

The Democrats are likely to take the House. The problem will be suburban districts. Republicans were routed in the Virginia house of Delegates. Even in Alabama, Republicans only won the suburbs by 4 points. The Democrats have done a good job of recruiting decent candidates to run. They don't have to stand for anything. Republicans didn't run on anything but opposition to Obama. That didn't hurt them in taking the House. Republicans have constantly appealed to the 30% and sometimes even less support for what Republicans have done or tried to do.

1. Republicans tried to kick poor people off of health insurance and force premiums much higher for older Americans and people with pre-existing conditions.
2. The tax bill left intact numerous loopholes for the rich including 1 that enriches Paul Ryan, Bob Corker, and Donald Trump.
3. Republicans have lurched too far to the right in repealing regulations. Something like net neutrality will be easy to explain. Treat all data equally.
.

The tax bill left intact numerous loopholes for the rich including 1 that enriches Paul Ryan, Bob Corker, and Donald Trump.

Between all the middle class tax cuts, the loopholes for the rich and the business tax cuts, the Republicans
covered all the bases.

While Americans support middle class tax cuts, they opposed the tax cuts for the rich and businesses.

Baloney.

 

[ChrisL]

Sure...guessing Hillary is still available.

 

[ChrisL]

Trump is not on the ballot,,,a bunch of white guys are,,thats why the GOP will win

They will probably run Liz Warren. Lol. She is a woman AND a minority.

 

[Billy_Kinetta]

The Democrats cannot win on Trump's alleged unpopularity. They must win on their own popularity, and outside of a couple of select clubs, they have none.

Should the econ perform as widely predicted, they will sink entirely.

For the record, Billy, you just predicted Democrats will not win a majority. Correct?

Very good. (Billy pats you on the head.)

 

[william the wie]

In this thread, we discuss the likelihood that Donald Trump's unpopularity will help Democrats win a majority in 2018, in the House of Representatives. Thanks.

2 things

1 - Trump is not really unpopular, and certainly not as much as the media would have you believe.
2 - the map is very favorable towards republicans and has been for the better part of a decade

republicans made a concerted and successful effort to grab power in State Legislatures before the last census

so when districts were drawn; republicans had much more influence

also; one of the most important measures of "popularity" for a president is the small business confidence index

that number is higher than it has been since the early 1980's

the real signs point towards republican gains in the Senate & holding court in the House

and if things stay as they are now; Trump is very likely to win a 2nd term

Still Trump is not yet doing all he can to recruit and fund minority conservatives, if that continues he is giving up on the real possibility of knocking the Ds down and getting his agenda passed prior to 2020.

 

[Rexx Taylor]

Trump is not on the ballot,,,a bunch of white guys are,,thats why the GOP will win

They will probably run Liz Warren. Lol. She is a woman AND a minority.

i thought elizabeth was a man,,,she has the same high cheek bones as a male gopher

 

[mudwhistle]

In this thread, we discuss the likelihood that Donald Trump's unpopularity will help Democrats win a majority in 2018, in the House of Representatives. Thanks.

Democrats made up this lie about shitholes so they wouldn't have to pass a DACA bill. Everyone had hope last week and now they have none......that is why Dick Durbin made up the lie. The media made it all possible.
Republicans, according to the media, lied about their support for repealing Obamacare. Instead they removed the mandate thru the tax cut bill effectively cutting it off at the knees.
So on one hand you have Democrats backing down from their promises and Republicans finding another way to fulfill their promise.
Who do you think will come out smelling like a rose in this?