Battleground states, 1May12

[Old Rocks]

North Carolina Romney +2

Ohio Obama +5.3

Florida Obama +3.3

Virginia Obama +0.7

New Hampshire Obama +3.5

Pennsylvania Obama +6.0

Michigan Obama +11.3

Wisconsin Obama +11.8

Iowa Obama +3.0

Missouri Romney +3.0

Colorado Obama +13.0

Nevada Obama +6.7

Arizona Romney +3.2

Realclearpolitics.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

The polls are averages and are obscure b/c many polls come during the tenuous Republican primaries. For instance, a Santorum Ohio or Penn Republican who might not have been for Romney at the time would be for him now.

Obama won't win Nevada by any margin let alone 6.7. He'll more likely lose it by 6.7 (if the SEIU doesn't rig it).

 

[Old Rocks]

Well, May is really early in the election cycle but it looks like a trend may be in action. That is a lot of electorial votes leaning toward President Obama at present.

 

[Ed Spacer]

Florida one is a pile ofcrap.
I travel there almost daily...see the antiobama billboards.

 

[Old Rocks]

Ever think Floridians may feel the same about you

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

This is how I think it really is:

North Carolina - The state hadn't went blue for like 40 years til 08. They just got swept up in the Obama mania. Natural order will be restored in 12. This is an easy win for Romney.

Ohio - A toss-up. Both candidates will be all over Ohioans nuts.

Florida - No way Romney loses it. The demographics are way in his favor and many of those that did vote for Obama in 08 have lost confidence in him.

Virginia - Obamacare is a huge loser for him there. Doubtful that Romney will not win this state.

New Hampshire - Romney is putting a lot of time and energy into NH; an inordinate amount of energy. He won't lose that state. Republicans will be getting out the vote and the independents there lean Romney as well.

Pennsylvania - I do believe that Obama likely has a lead there currently. How slim of a lead though really? This is a state that Romney can win and that Obama can't lose (b/c Romney won't lose Florida).

Michigan - Romney's so-called home state. I think when the smoke clears and Paulians and other factions start falling for Romney that this state may very well be in contention. Obama has successfully pounded the narrative that he saved the auto industry. Romney will need to show people he is full of it. He has not done that so far. Plan B would be to focus on how bad places like Detroit really are doing. But that's not going to be enough probably. There's a strong entitlement culture that Obama has working for him there.

Wisconsin - Union politics are front and center. Will Wisconsiners hold to their notion that unions are ruining their state? This state is close. The current poll average is bunk.

Iowa - I think the urbanization of Iowa has helped Dems in recent years. But Iowans still are simple people largely and Romney can pound the message that Obama has failed them. I think many Iowans have a strange fascination with Obama though. I think if he has a lead then that is why. I think his recent assault on family farms will go against him. I just don't know where Iowa sits right now. It could lean Obama or Romney. I'm sure it does too; I just don't think the polls are adequate to say right now.

Missouri - Easy win for Romney. Missouri for whatever reason did not like Obama from the start. Seventy percent of the state voted for a resolution condemning Obamacare. And this state somewhat easily went for McCain. I think the idea that it's only plus three for Romney tells me that someone is not conducting realistic polling.

Colorado - It may be strong for Obama. I doubt 13 points strong. It might be 4 to 7 points and then Romney will have to decide how hard he wants to hit it. I think they split their electoral votes, so even if Romney's winning just 40 percent of it then he can live with that.

Nevada - Like Missouri, they hate Obama. Not to mention the Mormon population. Again the 6.7 margin for Obama tells me that someones doctoring polls. Romney is going to crush Obama there. He could not campaign there and still win. I'm sure he'll make stops though in the name of prudence.

Arizona - They love Romney too. Arizonans think Obama has given them the finger with big brothering them to death. Again, the 3.2 is bunk. Don't be surprised to see Romney win the state by 10 to 20 points.

 

[Old Rocks]

OK. I think that there will be enough of the swing states going to Obama to put him comfortably over 270. I would say 290 to 310 for Obama in November.

 

[sealybobo]

North Carolina Romney +2

Ohio Obama +5.3

Florida Obama +3.3

Virginia Obama +0.7

New Hampshire Obama +3.5

Pennsylvania Obama +6.0

Michigan Obama +11.3

Wisconsin Obama +11.8

Iowa Obama +3.0

Missouri Romney +3.0

Colorado Obama +13.0

Nevada Obama +6.7

Arizona Romney +3.2

Realclearpolitics.

In December we will look back and laugh at the right wingers on USMB for saying Romney would beat Obama. Or how he wasn't conservative enough. Fact is, he's a bad liar. Its like he thinks it doesn't matter what he said yesterday, today he will say whatever he thinks the crowd wants to hear. Actually I take that back. He had balls to say that he would let GM fail or that he was with Governor Kasich in Ohio on ending collective bargaining. But he had to say that to win the GOP primaries. The other day the GOP suggested bailing out GM was Romney's idea. Like anyone is going to believe or buy that? Wait till we run our commercials. Romney is worse than Palin. But he was the GOP's only choice. And I have even heard moderate Republicans on USMB say so. They think Romney will be a moderate once in the White House. It worked. Bachmann, Cain, Pawlenty, Perry, Newt & Santorum did make Romney look like a moderate. He's more conservative than Bush. Google 8 ways Romney is more conservative than Bush for examples.

 

[Caroljo]

This is how I think it really is:

North Carolina - The state hadn't went blue for like 40 years til 08. They just got swept up in the Obama mania. Natural order will be restored in 12. This is an easy win for Romney.

Ohio - A toss-up. Both candidates will be all over Ohioans nuts.

Florida - No way Romney loses it. The demographics are way in his favor and many of those that did vote for Obama in 08 have lost confidence in him.

Virginia - Obamacare is a huge loser for him there. Doubtful that Romney will not win this state.

New Hampshire - Romney is putting a lot of time and energy into NH; an inordinate amount of energy. He won't lose that state. Republicans will be getting out the vote and the independents there lean Romney as well.

Pennsylvania - I do believe that Obama likely has a lead there currently. How slim of a lead though really? This is a state that Romney can win and that Obama can't lose (b/c Romney won't lose Florida).

Michigan - Romney's so-called home state. I think when the smoke clears and Paulians and other factions start falling for Romney that this state may very well be in contention. Obama has successfully pounded the narrative that he saved the auto industry. Romney will need to show people he is full of it. He has not done that so far. Plan B would be to focus on how bad places like Detroit really are doing. But that's not going to be enough probably. There's a strong entitlement culture that Obama has working for him there.
Wisconsin - Union politics are front and center. Will Wisconsiners hold to their notion that unions are ruining their state? This state is close. The current poll average is bunk.

Iowa - I think the urbanization of Iowa has helped Dems in recent years. But Iowans still are simple people largely and Romney can pound the message that Obama has failed them. I think many Iowans have a strange fascination with Obama though. I think if he has a lead then that is why. I think his recent assault on family farms will go against him. I just don't know where Iowa sits right now. It could lean Obama or Romney. I'm sure it does too; I just don't think the polls are adequate to say right now.

Missouri - Easy win for Romney. Missouri for whatever reason did not like Obama from the start. Seventy percent of the state voted for a resolution condemning Obamacare. And this state somewhat easily went for McCain. I think the idea that it's only plus three for Romney tells me that someone is not conducting realistic polling.

Colorado - It may be strong for Obama. I doubt 13 points strong. It might be 4 to 7 points and then Romney will have to decide how hard he wants to hit it. I think they split their electoral votes, so even if Romney's winning just 40 percent of it then he can live with that.

Nevada - Like Missouri, they hate Obama. Not to mention the Mormon population. Again the 6.7 margin for Obama tells me that someones doctoring polls. Romney is going to crush Obama there. He could not campaign there and still win. I'm sure he'll make stops though in the name of prudence.

Arizona - They love Romney too. Arizonans think Obama has given them the finger with big brothering them to death. Again, the 3.2 is bunk. Don't be surprised to see Romney win the state by 10 to 20 points.

It's hard for me to believe Obama will win Michigan. Of course i only live in one area, but by all the talk i hear, there's quite a few people i know voted for him in '08 that definately aren't going to this time. People have started seeing through him....and they don't like what they've seen.

 

[Chris]

Romney lost the election when he said, "Let Detroit go bankrupt."

You can't win without the auto workers in Michigan and Ohio.

 

[Old Rocks]

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Michigan: Romney vs. Obama

Polling Data



Poll

Date

Sample

Obama (D)

Romney (R)

Spread



RCP Average

2/10 - 4/3

--

50.3

39.0

Obama +11.3



EPIC-MRA

3/31 - 4/3

600 LV

47

43

Obama +4



MRG

3/14 - 3/19

600 LV

49

42

Obama +7



NBC News/Marist

2/19 - 2/20

1546 RV

51

33

Obama +18



PPP (D)

2/10 - 2/12

560 RV

54

38

Obama +16

 

[auditor0007]

This is how I think it really is:

North Carolina - The state hadn't went blue for like 40 years til 08. They just got swept up in the Obama mania. Natural order will be restored in 12. This is an easy win for Romney.

Ohio - A toss-up. Both candidates will be all over Ohioans nuts.

Florida - No way Romney loses it. The demographics are way in his favor and many of those that did vote for Obama in 08 have lost confidence in him.

Virginia - Obamacare is a huge loser for him there. Doubtful that Romney will not win this state.

New Hampshire - Romney is putting a lot of time and energy into NH; an inordinate amount of energy. He won't lose that state. Republicans will be getting out the vote and the independents there lean Romney as well.

Pennsylvania - I do believe that Obama likely has a lead there currently. How slim of a lead though really? This is a state that Romney can win and that Obama can't lose (b/c Romney won't lose Florida).

Michigan - Romney's so-called home state. I think when the smoke clears and Paulians and other factions start falling for Romney that this state may very well be in contention. Obama has successfully pounded the narrative that he saved the auto industry. Romney will need to show people he is full of it. He has not done that so far. Plan B would be to focus on how bad places like Detroit really are doing. But that's not going to be enough probably. There's a strong entitlement culture that Obama has working for him there.

Wisconsin - Union politics are front and center. Will Wisconsiners hold to their notion that unions are ruining their state? This state is close. The current poll average is bunk.

Iowa - I think the urbanization of Iowa has helped Dems in recent years. But Iowans still are simple people largely and Romney can pound the message that Obama has failed them. I think many Iowans have a strange fascination with Obama though. I think if he has a lead then that is why. I think his recent assault on family farms will go against him. I just don't know where Iowa sits right now. It could lean Obama or Romney. I'm sure it does too; I just don't think the polls are adequate to say right now.

Missouri - Easy win for Romney. Missouri for whatever reason did not like Obama from the start. Seventy percent of the state voted for a resolution condemning Obamacare. And this state somewhat easily went for McCain. I think the idea that it's only plus three for Romney tells me that someone is not conducting realistic polling.

Colorado - It may be strong for Obama. I doubt 13 points strong. It might be 4 to 7 points and then Romney will have to decide how hard he wants to hit it. I think they split their electoral votes, so even if Romney's winning just 40 percent of it then he can live with that.

Nevada - Like Missouri, they hate Obama. Not to mention the Mormon population. Again the 6.7 margin for Obama tells me that someones doctoring polls. Romney is going to crush Obama there. He could not campaign there and still win. I'm sure he'll make stops though in the name of prudence.

Arizona - They love Romney too. Arizonans think Obama has given them the finger with big brothering them to death. Again, the 3.2 is bunk. Don't be surprised to see Romney win the state by 10 to 20 points.

The biggest problem for Romney is that he needs to win almost every one of these swing states that he currently trails in. While I do think it will be fairly close, it's going to take a pretty substantial shift to swing all these states to Romney. It could happen if something drastic happens, such as gasoline going well over $4.00 per gallon. But barring anything drastic happening, I think Obama holds on to most of these states with Romney squeaking out a couple of them. In the end, Obama will likely win by a substantial margin.

 

[Caroljo]

Romney lost the election when he said, "Let Detroit go bankrupt."

You can't win without the auto workers in Michigan and Ohio.

There are MANY people here that thought GM should have gone bankrupt...they were NOT for the taxpayers bailing them out. I even know a few workers at GM that said this! I also know a lot of people here that has said they'll never buy a GM or Chrysler car again...only Ford. You may be surprised come election time!

 

[Chris]

Romney lost the election when he said, "Let Detroit go bankrupt."

You can't win without the auto workers in Michigan and Ohio.

There are MANY people here that thought GM should have gone bankrupt...they were NOT for the taxpayers bailing them out. I even know a few workers at GM that said this! I also know a lot of people here that has said they'll never buy a GM or Chrysler car again...only Ford. You may be surprised come election time!

I will be surprised.

By the Obama landslide.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

North Carolina Romney +2

Ohio Obama +5.3

Florida Obama +3.3

Virginia Obama +0.7

New Hampshire Obama +3.5

Pennsylvania Obama +6.0

Michigan Obama +11.3

Wisconsin Obama +11.8

Iowa Obama +3.0

Missouri Romney +3.0

Colorado Obama +13.0

Nevada Obama +6.7

Arizona Romney +3.2

Realclearpolitics.

In December we will look back and laugh at the right wingers on USMB for saying Romney would beat Obama. Or how he wasn't conservative enough. Fact is, he's a bad liar. Its like he thinks it doesn't matter what he said yesterday, today he will say whatever he thinks the crowd wants to hear. Actually I take that back. He had balls to say that he would let GM fail or that he was with Governor Kasich in Ohio on ending collective bargaining. But he had to say that to win the GOP primaries. The other day the GOP suggested bailing out GM was Romney's idea. Like anyone is going to believe or buy that? Wait till we run our commercials. Romney is worse than Palin. But he was the GOP's only choice. And I have even heard moderate Republicans on USMB say so. They think Romney will be a moderate once in the White House. It worked. Bachmann, Cain, Pawlenty, Perry, Newt & Santorum did make Romney look like a moderate. He's more conservative than Bush. Google 8 ways Romney is more conservative than Bush for examples.

Well Bush wasn't all that conservative for all libs bitching. He big brothered us to death. So I'm not sure why I should care if Romney is more conservative than him. Good for him if he is. I hope so.

And I have no idea why Obama jockers are so confident he'll win. I don't think ya'll get the fact that America is pissed off at Obama's lies and manipulations. He's been under 50 percent job approval for almost all of his presidency.

 

[PredFan]

If the polls are correct and Obama wins in november, it will be very bad news for the United States of America and especially for our children, grandchildren, great Grand Children and on and on.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

This is how I think it really is:

North Carolina - The state hadn't went blue for like 40 years til 08. They just got swept up in the Obama mania. Natural order will be restored in 12. This is an easy win for Romney.

Ohio - A toss-up. Both candidates will be all over Ohioans nuts.

Florida - No way Romney loses it. The demographics are way in his favor and many of those that did vote for Obama in 08 have lost confidence in him.

Virginia - Obamacare is a huge loser for him there. Doubtful that Romney will not win this state.

New Hampshire - Romney is putting a lot of time and energy into NH; an inordinate amount of energy. He won't lose that state. Republicans will be getting out the vote and the independents there lean Romney as well.

Pennsylvania - I do believe that Obama likely has a lead there currently. How slim of a lead though really? This is a state that Romney can win and that Obama can't lose (b/c Romney won't lose Florida).

Michigan - Romney's so-called home state. I think when the smoke clears and Paulians and other factions start falling for Romney that this state may very well be in contention. Obama has successfully pounded the narrative that he saved the auto industry. Romney will need to show people he is full of it. He has not done that so far. Plan B would be to focus on how bad places like Detroit really are doing. But that's not going to be enough probably. There's a strong entitlement culture that Obama has working for him there.

Wisconsin - Union politics are front and center. Will Wisconsiners hold to their notion that unions are ruining their state? This state is close. The current poll average is bunk.

Iowa - I think the urbanization of Iowa has helped Dems in recent years. But Iowans still are simple people largely and Romney can pound the message that Obama has failed them. I think many Iowans have a strange fascination with Obama though. I think if he has a lead then that is why. I think his recent assault on family farms will go against him. I just don't know where Iowa sits right now. It could lean Obama or Romney. I'm sure it does too; I just don't think the polls are adequate to say right now.

Missouri - Easy win for Romney. Missouri for whatever reason did not like Obama from the start. Seventy percent of the state voted for a resolution condemning Obamacare. And this state somewhat easily went for McCain. I think the idea that it's only plus three for Romney tells me that someone is not conducting realistic polling.

Colorado - It may be strong for Obama. I doubt 13 points strong. It might be 4 to 7 points and then Romney will have to decide how hard he wants to hit it. I think they split their electoral votes, so even if Romney's winning just 40 percent of it then he can live with that.

Nevada - Like Missouri, they hate Obama. Not to mention the Mormon population. Again the 6.7 margin for Obama tells me that someones doctoring polls. Romney is going to crush Obama there. He could not campaign there and still win. I'm sure he'll make stops though in the name of prudence.

Arizona - They love Romney too. Arizonans think Obama has given them the finger with big brothering them to death. Again, the 3.2 is bunk. Don't be surprised to see Romney win the state by 10 to 20 points.

The biggest problem for Romney is that he needs to win almost every one of these swing states that he currently trails in. While I do think it will be fairly close, it's going to take a pretty substantial shift to swing all these states to Romney. It could happen if something drastic happens, such as gasoline going well over $4.00 per gallon. But barring anything drastic happening, I think Obama holds on to most of these states with Romney squeaking out a couple of them. In the end, Obama will likely win by a substantial margin.

Dems on USMB want us to think it's dire. Only weeks ago during the so-called bitter Republican primary, one of them posted a RCP Electoral map with Obama at 297. Of course he was going to be up in the midst of that. Now look at it. It's at 227 and falling.

Let's just go off the gray states there (swing states); to say nothing of states that could tilt in his favor more by November.

Romney starts at 170. He will win AZ (11), NV (6), get a portion of CO (4 of 9), win MO (10), win FL (29), win VA (13), win NC (15). That puts him at 258.

That gives him lots of ways that he could win. He could win Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4) and turn another smaller state in his favor and actually win without winning Penn or Ohio.

But that said, that's risky and one state expected to go his way could fall through. I do think Romney will need to win Penn or Ohio most likely. And I do think that if he wins either of them then he will win the election.

 

[candycorn]

North Carolina Romney +2

Ohio Obama +5.3

Florida Obama +3.3

Virginia Obama +0.7

New Hampshire Obama +3.5

Pennsylvania Obama +6.0

Michigan Obama +11.3

Wisconsin Obama +11.8

Iowa Obama +3.0

Missouri Romney +3.0

Colorado Obama +13.0

Nevada Obama +6.7

Arizona Romney +3.2

Realclearpolitics.

Game Over. 4 more years if you go by the Polls. 13 points in Colorado? That sounds a bit fishy. By the same token Romney being up in Arizona seems strange too; it's almost as if there is no campaign out here.

What about North Carolina?

 

[candycorn]

If the polls are correct and Obama wins in november, it will be very bad news for the United States of America and especially for our children, grandchildren, great Grand Children and on and on.

Shut the fuck up.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

If the polls are correct and Obama wins in november, it will be very bad news for the United States of America and especially for our children, grandchildren, great Grand Children and on and on.

Shut the fuck up.