Are tariffs to blame?

[ThisIsMe]

I'm not looking for ideological arguments here. Im not interested in who's to blame or any of that, but what i am looking at is, is this tariff war the cause of the market slide?

Will it recover? If so, how long of a lull are we in for?

Just trying to understand what is happening.

 

[Oddball]

Can't say....But there's little doubt that the several Fed interest rate increases haven't been any help.

 

[Mac1958]

Just trying to understand what is happening.

A few things:

1. Yes, uncertainty caused by the tariff and trade situation. You'll notice the other day the Dow was up 600 when the trade talks looked good. Then back down when that Chinese CFO was arrested.

2. The Fed has to signal it's going to at least stretch out, if not stop, this regular increase of interest rates.

3. Real estate is cooling off significantly on the coasts and other major areas. That would normally be a concern anyway, but I think it might be more concerning now given the 2008 meltdown. People might be a little more sensitive than usual to that.

The two things the industry is looking at now are tariffs and interest rates. If those work out well, and soon, we could see a turnaround. The real estate picture is still concerning, though.
.

 

[Cellblock2429]

I'm not looking for ideological arguments here. Im not interested in who's to blame or any of that, but what i am looking at is, is this tariff war the cause of the market slide?

Will it recover? If so, how long of a lull are we in for?

Just trying to understand what is happening.

/----/ It's a combination of the tariff war, the Fed rate hikes and the new Dem congress. Three things drive the market, Fear, Greed, and Uncertainty. Fear and Uncertainty seem to be driving the market right now.

 

[rightwinger]

Absolutely

 

[eagle1462010]

Everyone one was doing fine at Wallstreet.........one guy was trying to talk to a friend about his mother.........His friend couldn't hear him........

He kept shouting .........she's DOING WELL............others in the room heard it.........and thought it said SELL...........started a panic and everyone sold their stocks and lost their shit..........

Was a disaster caused by mom.

 

[MarathonMike]

Tariffs are part of the volatility but rising interest rates are more the issue. Also the market typically self corrects after years of above average gains so highly priced stocks and the EXPECTATION of a correction are part of the volatility as well.

 

[Rambunctious]

Tariffs are a tool...a means to an end of the United States being ripped off....the Tariffs will be pulled back as China and other nations change their trade ways....there is no reason that the American people should be slighted in the search for financial stability by China or Mexico or Canada or France or Germany or anyone else...its not just your life...its your children and grand children and great grand children's lives....think ahead....

 

[ThisIsMe]

Just trying to understand what is happening.

A few things:

1. Yes, uncertainty caused by the tariff and trade situation. You'll notice the other day the Dow was up 600 when the trade talks looked good. Then back down when that Chinese CFO was arrested.

2. The Fed has to signal it's going to at least stretch out, if not stop, this regular increase of interest rates.

3. Real estate is cooling off significantly on the coasts and other major areas. That would normally be a concern anyway, but I think it might be more concerning now given the 2008 meltdown. People might be a little more sensitive than usual to that.

The two things the industry is looking at now are tariffs and interest rates. If those work out well, and soon, we could see a turnaround. The real estate picture is still concerning, though.
.

The turnaround is something I've wondered about. Are the tariffs, while causing a dip now, going to be something that will ultimately put us in a better place down the line?

 

[ThisIsMe]

Tariffs are part of the volatility but rising interest rates are more the issue. Also the market typically self corrects after years of above average gains so highly priced stocks and the EXPECTATION of a correction are part of the volatility as well.

So, at the end of the day, what were seeing is actually normal...or at least expected?

How long do corrections usually take?

 

[MarathonMike]

Tariffs are part of the volatility but rising interest rates are more the issue. Also the market typically self corrects after years of above average gains so highly priced stocks and the EXPECTATION of a correction are part of the volatility as well.

So, at the end of the day, what were seeing is actually normal...or at least expected?

How long do corrections usually take?

The generally agreed upon definition of a correction is a 10% drop of a stock or an index like the S&P 500, from a recent high. We hit a high on the S&P at the beginning of October and we're very close to a 10% drop from that level now. Corrections usually last a few weeks to a few months. There are worse things than corrections that last longer but the good news is those don't happen often.

If you are new to the market I suggest looking at the annual return for each year since 2000 of the S&P 500. You will see that the annual returns are all over the place but in general the returns are higher than you get with fixed interest rate investments like bonds, CDs etc. That is why people always come back to the market even after crashes like 2000 and 2008.

 

[Mac1958]

Just trying to understand what is happening.

A few things:

1. Yes, uncertainty caused by the tariff and trade situation. You'll notice the other day the Dow was up 600 when the trade talks looked good. Then back down when that Chinese CFO was arrested.

2. The Fed has to signal it's going to at least stretch out, if not stop, this regular increase of interest rates.

3. Real estate is cooling off significantly on the coasts and other major areas. That would normally be a concern anyway, but I think it might be more concerning now given the 2008 meltdown. People might be a little more sensitive than usual to that.

The two things the industry is looking at now are tariffs and interest rates. If those work out well, and soon, we could see a turnaround. The real estate picture is still concerning, though.
.

The turnaround is something I've wondered about. Are the tariffs, while causing a dip now, going to be something that will ultimately put us in a better place down the line?

Theoretically, yes. Of course, that depends on the nature of the tariffs and how well they're adhered to. It's no secret that the Chinese have not only held an advantage in trade, they don't play fair either.

Shorter term, the stock market would love it. But the market ain't the economy.
.

 

[McRocket]

Just trying to understand what is happening.

A few things:

1. Yes, uncertainty caused by the tariff and trade situation. You'll notice the other day the Dow was up 600 when the trade talks looked good. Then back down when that Chinese CFO was arrested.

2. The Fed has to signal it's going to at least stretch out, if not stop, this regular increase of interest rates.

3. Real estate is cooling off significantly on the coasts and other major areas. That would normally be a concern anyway, but I think it might be more concerning now given the 2008 meltdown. People might be a little more sensitive than usual to that.

The two things the industry is looking at now are tariffs and interest rates. If those work out well, and soon, we could see a turnaround. The real estate picture is still concerning, though.
.

The turnaround is something I've wondered about. Are the tariffs, while causing a dip now, going to be something that will ultimately put us in a better place down the line?

Theoretically, yes. Of course, that depends on the nature of the tariffs and how well they're adhered to. It's no secret that the Chinese have not only held an advantage in trade, they don't play fair either.

Shorter term, the stock market would love it. But the market ain't the economy.
.

No offense but 100% wrong (though I generally agree with your post above your last one)...theoretically AND historically. NO.

The Trump tariffs have near-ZERO chance of putting America in a better place down the line.

Or are you saying you know more about business than the entire U.S. Chamber of Commerce? Surely you cannot be that arrogant.

Tariffs are the Wrong Approach

Import tariffs are NOTHING but a tax. They make things more expensive for consumers...that hurts the economy. They cause exports to drop - that hurts the economy. And they do create some new jobs, but they almost always cost more than they create. Look at steel? Many American manufacturers depend on cheap, Chinese steel to make their products cheaper. Take away that cheap steel, and those manufacturers might have to lay off workers.

So far, all these ridiculous Trump tariffs have done are raise prices, hurt the equity markets, send America's trade deficit with China to a record high and caused more layoffs than they have averted.

US Trade Deficit Soars To Record High As Exports Tumble

US Manufacturers Warn Trump Tariffs Will Bring Higher Prices, Not More Jobs: Survey

Large tariffs DO NOT HELP AMERICA.

 

[The Banker]

Tariffs are very bad for the markets. We want our goods and raw materials to be as cheap as possible, not more expensive, cheap steel from china, cheap lower quality goods like furniture Air Conditioners, auto parts, etc etc overall benefit the economy more than they hurt it.

With regards to the economy, there's always a give and take of course some people/jobs will be hurt by globalization, but more will be helped. Pretty much if you are a skilled and educated worker you are better off, if you are a very low skilled worker you are worse off because they will find some illiterate moron in a 3rd world country to do your job for $1/hour. Get jobs skills and you will be fine.

If Trump ramps up his tariffs again, causing China to escalate it would be very bad for the markets and the economy. Powell's aggressive FED is not helping either Yellen was much better at "dovish" hikes and using dovish language to keep markets calm. Trump screwed up big time when he got rid of Yellen.

 

[Marion Morrison]

Don't even try it, bitches. It's the Fed raising interest rates and incoming Democrat Congress.

 

[Marion Morrison]

Tariffs are very bad for the markets. We want our goods and raw materials to be as cheap as possible, not more expensive, cheap steel from china, cheap lower quality goods like furniture Air Conditioners, auto parts, etc etc overall benefit the economy more than they hurt it.

With regards to the economy, there's always a give and take of course some people/jobs will be hurt by globalization, but more will be helped. Pretty much if you are a skilled and educated worker you are better off, if you are a very low skilled worker you are worse off because they will find some illiterate moron in a 3rd world country to do your job for $1/hour. Get jobs skills and you will be fine.

If Trump ramps up his tariffs again, causing China to escalate it would be very bad for the markets and the economy. Powell's aggressive FED is not helping either Yellen was much better at "dovish" hikes and using dovish language to keep markets calm. Trump screwed up big time when he got rid of Yellen.

Fuck you and globalization. I hope you're not in America.

 

[The Banker]

Tariffs are very bad for the markets. We want our goods and raw materials to be as cheap as possible, not more expensive, cheap steel from china, cheap lower quality goods like furniture Air Conditioners, auto parts, etc etc overall benefit the economy more than they hurt it.

With regards to the economy, there's always a give and take of course some people/jobs will be hurt by globalization, but more will be helped. Pretty much if you are a skilled and educated worker you are better off, if you are a very low skilled worker you are worse off because they will find some illiterate moron in a 3rd world country to do your job for $1/hour. Get jobs skills and you will be fine.

If Trump ramps up his tariffs again, causing China to escalate it would be very bad for the markets and the economy. Powell's aggressive FED is not helping either Yellen was much better at "dovish" hikes and using dovish language to keep markets calm. Trump screwed up big time when he got rid of Yellen.

Fuck you and globalization. I hope you're not in America.

Spoken like a true uneducated unskilled fool. When you have the same job skills as an illiterate laborer in the slums of Bangladesh you are going to have employment problems. Stop being lazy and get some real job skills.

 

[Marion Morrison]

Tariffs are very bad for the markets. We want our goods and raw materials to be as cheap as possible, not more expensive, cheap steel from china, cheap lower quality goods like furniture Air Conditioners, auto parts, etc etc overall benefit the economy more than they hurt it.

With regards to the economy, there's always a give and take of course some people/jobs will be hurt by globalization, but more will be helped. Pretty much if you are a skilled and educated worker you are better off, if you are a very low skilled worker you are worse off because they will find some illiterate moron in a 3rd world country to do your job for $1/hour. Get jobs skills and you will be fine.

If Trump ramps up his tariffs again, causing China to escalate it would be very bad for the markets and the economy. Powell's aggressive FED is not helping either Yellen was much better at "dovish" hikes and using dovish language to keep markets calm. Trump screwed up big time when he got rid of Yellen.

Fuck you and globalization. I hope you're not in America.

Spoken like a true uneducated unskilled fool. When you have the same job skills as an illiterate laborer in the slums of Bangladesh you are going to have employment problems. Stop being lazy and get some real job skills.

I got job skills wtf.. I can't say that because USMB rules..that's bullshit.

Bitch I got hella job skills. Know several different trades, how to develop property. How to rent property.

I can drive equipment, play the banjo..it don't matter to me.

People in America are not helped by globalization, go fuck yourself you leftist turd. People in America do not benefit from globalization.

You may not realize the amount of people I've seen hurt due to NAFTA, but it's in the hundreds, and that shit pisses me off.

Yeah, I still made it and all, but damn, a lot of decent people did not, and that's fucked up.

I'm not very appreciative of seeing my neighbors and friends being hurt by globalization, so you can go fuck yourself with a cactus, k?

Here's to ya, brother Clark.

 

[Marion Morrison]

Just trying to understand what is happening.

A few things:

1. Yes, uncertainty caused by the tariff and trade situation. You'll notice the other day the Dow was up 600 when the trade talks looked good. Then back down when that Chinese CFO was arrested.

2. The Fed has to signal it's going to at least stretch out, if not stop, this regular increase of interest rates.

3. Real estate is cooling off significantly on the coasts and other major areas. That would normally be a concern anyway, but I think it might be more concerning now given the 2008 meltdown. People might be a little more sensitive than usual to that.

The two things the industry is looking at now are tariffs and interest rates. If those work out well, and soon, we could see a turnaround. The real estate picture is still concerning, though.
.

The turnaround is something I've wondered about. Are the tariffs, while causing a dip now, going to be something that will ultimately put us in a better place down the line?

Yes. Tariffs used to do what income tax does today. For over a century.

 

[kiwiman127]

Trump and some of followers like to blame interest rates. However, the US has had higher interest rates during booming economies.
The current Fed Interest rates are lower than the average rates. Check out the historical rates.

Here's a link to historical rates interest rates for the last 62 years.
Federal Funds Rate - 62 Year Historical Chart
Entirely blames the interest rates makes absolutely wrong. The tariffs effects on inflation play a big part.