A Tale of Two Economies: Growth for Now, Recession in the Near Future

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Doc7505, Sep 1, 2018.

  1. Doc7505
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    Doc7505 Gold Member

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    A Tale of Two Economies: Growth for Now, Recession in the Near Future


    http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/a...e-near-future/
    The U.S. economy grew even faster during the second quarter than what was initially reported. New numbers reveal a larger bump in corporate spending. The Trump/GOP tax cuts helped jumpstart the economy from April to June this year as investment and growth are accelerating 19 months into President Trump’s first term in office. Gross Domestic Product increased at an annual rate of 4.2 percent in the second quarter, revised up from 4.1 percent. This is the fastest growth in almost four years and was almost twice as much as the first quarter’s growth. We will see if this spike in
    in economic activity is a blip from the tax cuts and the rush of exports in anticipation of more tariffs or a sign of sustained economic growth for the last six months of the year.
    The economy is doing well enough for Republicans to hold onto their majorities in DC. But the warning signs are getting harder to ignore. The recession is likely coming in the next two years. We all must take the proper precautions for when that day finally comes.


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    Hmm...., it’s called “the business cycle.” You’d think an “economist” would know about such things. Typically Chuck Schumer has called for other metrics than GDP to be used for determining whether the average voter is benefiting from the economic upsurge. One can infer from such Democrat “muddy water” tactics that the economic upsurge poses a threat to their election outcome. They appear to believe the GDP will likely post excellent results for the third quarter, and estimates will be very good for the year as a whole.Using the same metrics for measuring unemployment as used during Obama’s administrations, if unemployment continues the current downward trend, it will become apparent that the methodology was manipulated to misrepresent the true depth of economic depression experienced.
    I’m no economist, but I figure that at some point an upturn will happen, followed by a downturn, but a downturn could continue for a long time, such as when Obama was in charge. If the economy isn’t “messed with” too much it could remain fairly stable overall without outside influences. Just my theory.
    Meanwhile Bob Shanahan's
    prediction of a recession sometime within 2 years is about as useful as a newspaper description of a criminal being a man wearing a dark clothing and sneakers.
     
  2. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    The big problem is that Trump is taking the lowest hanging fruit in order and betting that he doesn't run out of easy harvests until after his reelection. If so then the 4th qtr of 2019 and the 1st qtr of 2020 will a great reduction of GDP growth increases.

    NY, CA and IL will be basket cases from under funded non-bond liabilities and smaller tax base.
     
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  3. Crepitus
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    Crepitus Gold Member

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    It's a bump.

    Fully 25% of it was China stocking up on soybeans before the tariffs hit. Throw in the rest if the stocking up and panic purchases and I bet that accounts for most if not all of it.
     
  4. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    The methodology for measuring unemployment doesn't change from President to President: there have been no major changes since 1994, only minor tweaks in collection and processing. For all practical purposes, it is impossible to manipulate the unemployment rate. The conspiracy would involve thousands of people and there's just no point to it.
     
  5. Oldstyle
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    Oldstyle Gold Member

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    LOL...it KILLS you that Trump is doing far better with the economy than you were told he would by your liberal talking heads...doesn't it, Crepitus? It's all because of "panic purchases"? Didn't go near an economics class when you were in school...did ya'!
     
  6. Crepitus
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    Crepitus Gold Member

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    Use your head man. Numbers don't lie. This has been all over the real news.

    Probably not so much in the tRump-o-sphere.
     
  7. Oldstyle
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    Oldstyle Gold Member

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    The "real news"? Let me guess...CNN...CNBC...The New York Times? I'm amused by your declaration that YOU listen to the "real news", Crepitus!

    As for numbers not lying? Statistics have been used to deceive since they were invented. Jobs created or saved was a "number" but it was a total bullshit number who's only real purpose was to hide the reality of what happened. I know it KILLS you to hear this but even the The New York Times (hater of all things Trump!) has had to admit that the economy is doing incredibly under Trump!
     
  8. Crepitus
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    Crepitus Gold Member

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    The economy is continuing the trajectory set under President Obama. In fact many indications say it's at the top of it's arc and about to start back down.
     
  9. Oldstyle
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    Oldstyle Gold Member

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    Seriously? Barack Obama oversaw the worst recovery from a recession since The Great Depression!

    What "indication" says that Trump's economy is at the top of it's arc? Your fervent prayers that it can't keep on the way it has been? Because the talking heads at CNN keep telling you that it can't keep on this way? I hate to break this to you but lower taxes create economic growth. Kennedy understood that. So does Trump. Getting rid of burdensome regulations helps create economic growth. Trump understood that as well. Barack Obama never seemed to grasp that concept! What Trump is doing is based on sound economic principles. It's the difference between a President who never took an economics class in his life and one who majored in economics!
     
  10. Crepitus
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    Crepitus Gold Member

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    A big part of the slowness of the recovery was republican opposition. Also, a lot of the indicators you kids said we're bad are the same. Remember the old U6 vs U3 argument? Those number have barely changed. In fact employment growth has slowed. Wages are still stagnant, and our buying power is actually less now because of inflation. Wallstreet looks good but it's badly really just badly overvalued. The only people who are actually profiting in this economy are the already Uber rich and the big corporations. Your 4% GDP is a one quarter flash in the pan.
     

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