Nyvin
Gold Member
- Sep 23, 2013
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Given that Obama won 332-206 (have I mentioned that?), the GOP needs to swing 64 votes to get to 270. There doesn't seem to be much reason for them to switch on such a grand scale.
More than enough votes available: Blue States that voted Red in 2004.
United States 2012 Presidential Electoral Votes Per State - iWeblists
The four states that voted for Bush that I believe have definitely trended left since then are Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Florida.
Florida (29) is a lock for Bush. If he wins Virginia (13), he will only need Indiana (11), Colorado (9) and one of the others to be elected.
He'll have to win at least 35% of the Hispanic vote to get Florida or a higher percentage of whites. Demographically Florida is about 3-4% less white then it was in 2004.
-Virginia has been drifting left the past decade and is becoming less white as Hispanics and Asians move into the state(73-75% democratic demographics). I'd give Jeb maybe a 30% chance of winning it if Hillary has a bad campaign.
-Colorado hasn't been won since Jebs brother won it in 2004 at the presidential level. Lost a couple percent in the white category and has become more liberal as more people move their from California...Pretty much the Oregon of the Rockies!
North Carolina could go both ways.
Looking at the state by state polling I'd say Hillary will have to seriously fucked up for a republican to win.
Good analysis, but polling is too early and external events do not bode well for Hillary. Also, there are some other dynamics (gay rights, employment) which could affect the Black and Hispanic vote.
Employment was worse in 2012 and Obama openly supported gay marriage in 2012 and he still won the election and the Hispanic and Black vote by more than almost any other Democratic candidate ever.
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