2016: Sober Analysis, Please

[jwoodie]

It seems to me that Jeb Bush has the inside track for the GOP nomination. He seems to project both the experience and temperament to be President. Any family "dynasty" issue would be canceled by Hillary's nomination, and Bush 43's foreign policy is looking better and better. His potential appeal to Hispanic voters is an added bonus and, by election time, conservatives will realize that, for them, any GOP President would be better than Hillary.

Hillary's once certain prospects for the Democratic nomination are showing cracks in that edifice. The steady drip of "Emailgate" will eventually create electability doubts among her supporters and cement negative perceptions of her character among the undecided. Her greatest strength at this point is the lack of serious challengers. (Bernie Sanders could only be nominated if the Democrats give up like they did with Dukakis in 1984.)

Sorry if this sounds partisan, but it is not intended to be. At this point, I think both Jeb and Hillary have 60/40 chances of being nominated, and an even shot at being elected. Time will tell...

How do you handicap these races?

 

[JakeStarkey]

Good analysis.

I am hoping his the JEB neo-con bias will become more evidence.

 

[Nyvin]

Hillary has more like a 80/20 chance of being nominated, it was like 95/5 until about a month ago when Sanders started to get going.

Jeb is probably like 50/50. The GOP nomination seems to be coming down to a regional battle, with each candidate having strongholds in certain parts of the country. Jeb probably has the widest reach of any candidate, but no real particular strength in any of them.

He basically has to build up the idea that he's the most electable against Hillary to win the primary. He's been busy doing just that also....touring big states like Ohio and North Carolina and states that are more important in the General than the primary.

 

[jwoodie]

10% outlier: Biden nomination after Obama resigns for UN post?

 

[Nyvin]

10% outlier: Biden nomination after Obama resigns for UN post?

0% chance

 

[Judicial review]

Bush's name will prevent him from winning Period. If Kasich gets to the first debate in August, then Bush is finished, because when Bush drops out when it becomes clear his name is scaring people Kasich is the next Rhino to step in and all support will flow to him. Kasich can without question win. He has more experience than all the candidates combined. Foreign and domestic and Governors experience at all levels.

 

[auditor0007]

Hillary versus the field. The Republican side is going to be fun to watch. Jeb or someone else may pull away with it in the end. On the other hand, if a number of Republicans are each able to pull in a significant number of delegates through the first half of the primaries, then I really think we might see a brokered convention with no candidate winning on the first ballot. Just from a political and historical prospective, I really would love to see that happen.

 

[jwoodie]

Hillary versus the field. The Republican side is going to be fun to watch. Jeb or someone else may pull away with it in the end. On the other hand, if a number of Republicans are each able to pull in a significant number of delegates through the first half of the primaries, then I really think we might see a brokered convention with no candidate winning on the first ballot. Just from a political and historical prospective, I really would love to see that happen.

Don't count Mitt out. His age would be a nonfactor against Hillary, and her association with Obama would give voters a chance to atone for 2012.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Hillary should step aside for Biden

 

[candycorn]

At the risk of actually providing a sober analysis...

The GOP needs to ask itself a question. After the last debacle and the ensuing autopsies, it was determined that there needed to be an outreach to blacks, women and Hispanics. What has happened since 2012? Blacks are just as firmly entrenched with the Democratic party. Hispanic media is being sued by one of the GOP front runners and the immigration bill that was passed by a bi-partisan Senate sits lonely on John Boehner's desk.

Given that Obama won 332-206 (have I mentioned that?), the GOP needs to swing 64 votes to get to 270. There doesn't seem to be much reason for them to switch on such a grand scale.

 

[jwoodie]

Given that Obama won 332-206 (have I mentioned that?), the GOP needs to swing 64 votes to get to 270. There doesn't seem to be much reason for them to switch on such a grand scale.

More than enough votes available: Blue States that voted Red in 2004.

United States 2012 Presidential Electoral Votes Per State - iWeblists

 

[Nyvin]

Given that Obama won 332-206 (have I mentioned that?), the GOP needs to swing 64 votes to get to 270. There doesn't seem to be much reason for them to switch on such a grand scale.

More than enough votes available: Blue States that voted Red in 2004.

United States 2012 Presidential Electoral Votes Per State - iWeblists

The four states that voted for Bush that I believe have definitely trended left since then are Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Florida.

 

[jwoodie]

Given that Obama won 332-206 (have I mentioned that?), the GOP needs to swing 64 votes to get to 270. There doesn't seem to be much reason for them to switch on such a grand scale.

More than enough votes available: Blue States that voted Red in 2004.

United States 2012 Presidential Electoral Votes Per State - iWeblists

The four states that voted for Bush that I believe have definitely trended left since then are Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Florida.

Florida (29) is a lock for Bush. If he wins Virginia (13), he will only need Indiana (11), Colorado (9) and one of the others to be elected.

 

[Nyvin]

Given that Obama won 332-206 (have I mentioned that?), the GOP needs to swing 64 votes to get to 270. There doesn't seem to be much reason for them to switch on such a grand scale.

More than enough votes available: Blue States that voted Red in 2004.

United States 2012 Presidential Electoral Votes Per State - iWeblists

The four states that voted for Bush that I believe have definitely trended left since then are Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Florida.

Florida (29) is a lock for Bush. If he wins Virginia (13), he will only need Indiana (11), Colorado (9) and one of the others to be elected.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Florida Bush vs. Clinton

Florida is most definitely not a lock for either party, it's guaranteed to be a close race regardless of the candidates since it's less than 5% of the population that decides presidential elections in the state.

There hasn't been that much polling in Florida for the General, but the little that's out there still shows a pretty close election. The Florida that elected Jeb governor is not the same as the Florida in 2016.

I don't know why you'd include Indiana, but the states you listed (of the common swing states) wouldn't be enough to get a Republican elected, unless you mean winning Ohio including the others.


windows screenshot

 

[ScienceRocks]

Given that Obama won 332-206 (have I mentioned that?), the GOP needs to swing 64 votes to get to 270. There doesn't seem to be much reason for them to switch on such a grand scale.

More than enough votes available: Blue States that voted Red in 2004.

United States 2012 Presidential Electoral Votes Per State - iWeblists

The four states that voted for Bush that I believe have definitely trended left since then are Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Florida.

Florida (29) is a lock for Bush. If he wins Virginia (13), he will only need Indiana (11), Colorado (9) and one of the others to be elected.

He'll have to win at least 35% of the Hispanic vote to get Florida or a higher percentage of whites. Demographically Florida is about 3-4% less white then it was in 2004.
-Virginia has been drifting left the past decade and is becoming less white as Hispanics and Asians move into the state(73-75% democratic demographics). I'd give Jeb maybe a 30% chance of winning it if Hillary has a bad campaign.
-Colorado hasn't been won since Jebs brother won it in 2004 at the presidential level. Lost a couple percent in the white category and has become more liberal as more people move their from California...Pretty much the Oregon of the Rockies!
North Carolina could go both ways.

Looking at the state by state polling I'd say Hillary will have to seriously fucked up for a republican to win.

 

[candycorn]

Given that Obama won 332-206 (have I mentioned that?), the GOP needs to swing 64 votes to get to 270. There doesn't seem to be much reason for them to switch on such a grand scale.

More than enough votes available: Blue States that voted Red in 2004.

United States 2012 Presidential Electoral Votes Per State - iWeblists

The four states that voted for Bush that I believe have definitely trended left since then are Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Florida.

Florida (29) is a lock for Bush. If he wins Virginia (13), he will only need Indiana (11), Colorado (9) and one of the others to be elected.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Florida Bush vs. Clinton

Florida is most definitely not a lock for either party, it's guaranteed to be a close race regardless of the candidates since it's less than 5% of the population that decides presidential elections in the state.

There hasn't been that much polling in Florida for the General, but the little that's out there still shows a pretty close election. The Florida that elected Jeb governor is not the same as the Florida in 2016.

I don't know why you'd include Indiana, but the states you listed (of the common swing states) wouldn't be enough to get a Republican elected, unless you mean winning Ohio including the others.


windows screenshot

Virginia is a blue state for the foreseeable future.

 

[HenryBHough]

I believe that neither the ultimate Democrat Party nor the Republican Party's candidate is even in the race at this time.

I really don't know what the Republicans might want but Democrats? Look for a person of colour, male or transgendered, who is articulate and who cleans up nice. So far none such on tap but, then, there were also none such at this point in 2007.

 

[candycorn]

Given that Obama won 332-206 (have I mentioned that?), the GOP needs to swing 64 votes to get to 270. There doesn't seem to be much reason for them to switch on such a grand scale.

More than enough votes available: Blue States that voted Red in 2004.

United States 2012 Presidential Electoral Votes Per State - iWeblists

We had a war going on and a President who never missed a chance to amplify the threat. The Democrats also had a disappointing campaigner.

 

[Vigilante]

Then you have, Old, Ugly, Fat and a DRUNK... these are the choices?...Oh did I mention a murderer?

 

[jwoodie]

Given that Obama won 332-206 (have I mentioned that?), the GOP needs to swing 64 votes to get to 270. There doesn't seem to be much reason for them to switch on such a grand scale.

More than enough votes available: Blue States that voted Red in 2004.

United States 2012 Presidential Electoral Votes Per State - iWeblists

The four states that voted for Bush that I believe have definitely trended left since then are Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Florida.

Florida (29) is a lock for Bush. If he wins Virginia (13), he will only need Indiana (11), Colorado (9) and one of the others to be elected.

He'll have to win at least 35% of the Hispanic vote to get Florida or a higher percentage of whites. Demographically Florida is about 3-4% less white then it was in 2004.
-Virginia has been drifting left the past decade and is becoming less white as Hispanics and Asians move into the state(73-75% democratic demographics). I'd give Jeb maybe a 30% chance of winning it if Hillary has a bad campaign.
-Colorado hasn't been won since Jebs brother won it in 2004 at the presidential level. Lost a couple percent in the white category and has become more liberal as more people move their from California...Pretty much the Oregon of the Rockies!
North Carolina could go both ways.

Looking at the state by state polling I'd say Hillary will have to seriously fucked up for a republican to win.

Good analysis, but polling is too early and external events do not bode well for Hillary. Also, there are some other dynamics (gay rights, employment) which could affect the Black and Hispanic vote.