2014 US Senate predictions

[Machaut]

I live next door to North Carolina and have family there. The State narrowly went for Romney. Kay Hagen repeated the "if you like your plan, you can keep your plan," over and over. She is seen in the State as an Obama rubber stamp. She will not win re-election. Bank on it.

The other two States, I cannot comment on because I do not know them politically.

I agree, though it will be more complex an issue than "if you like your plan, you can keep it" by my measure. Hagen will be outspent 2 or 3 to one in the end and therein will be the ballgame.

The Hagan election is going to be decided by casual voters.

NC SBE Election Results

Primaries have a much lower turnout that general elections, and the number of votes cast in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate seat (488,554) only barely surpassed the votes in the Democratic primary (482,369) for the same race. It will come down to swaying the casuals, the undecideds, the "I usually don't vote because who cares" crowd--not necessarily Unaffiliateds (NC's version of being registered as Independent), but people of any affiliation who either don't normally vote or who only vote in general elections. Personally, I don't think that Thom Tillis (the Republican nominee for the Senate seat) will pick up that many more guaranteed votes than he got in the primary, and I also think that a sizeable chunk (in the tens of thousands) will refuse to vote for him. Libertarian candidates always gets roughly 2% of the vote, despite not representing 2% of registered voters, and those who voted for candidates like Greg Brannon and Heather Grant (the second and third place candidates, respectively) in the primary will be far less likely to set differences aside and vote for Tillis.

I suspect that we will be heading into a close race that will be decided by the lowest common denominator. Tillis will paint Hagan as Obama's mouthpiece (the line "Kay Hagan votes with Obama 96% of the time" has already been floating around for a while), while Hagan will paint Tillis as a crooked politician (e.g. Tillis supporting legislation to allow natural gas companies to claim eminent domain to steal a person's land for the purpose of exploiting natural gas resources on that land, and Tillis then suddenly getting contributions from PACs representing gas companies, their executives, etc.). Sean Haugh, the Libertarian candidate, will likely pick up a large number of Republican votes and could wind up becoming a spoiler in the election, i.e. he may siphon just enough votes away from Tillis to ensure that Hagan gets re-elected by a narrow margin.

 

[UJANGTEUING]

I am here just listened to add insight and knowledge as I am still learning in this

 

[midcan5]

This from the same people who predicted a Romney Ryan landslide. Sure thing.

 

[PeoplePower]

I feel like NC will be the Senate race most indicative of the national mood. Hagan, of the other democratic incumbents facing challenges, is the only one who doesn't seem to have an independent brand and most represents the national Democratic Party. Plus she current holds that seat, just as Democrats currently hold that senate and the presidency. Tillis is an "establishment" candidate who has advanced the agenda of the Tea Party in the state legislature, which sort of represents where the national Republican Party is at.


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[HenryBHough]

Brave (albeit stupid) Democrats will invite Our Kenyan Prexy to come to their state and campaign on their behalf.

Those who really want to get re-elected will ask him, pretty please with sugar on it, to go to Hawaii and golf instead.

Except in Illinois, New York, and California which are already beyond redemption.

 

[BreezeWood]

Georgia - Kentucky - Mississippi: 2014 pick-ups for the Democrats ...

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[PeoplePower]

Those are all possibilities. Mississippi depends on the GOP primary. The other two are anyone's game.


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[WelfareQueen]

Georgia - Kentucky - Mississippi: 2014 pick-ups for the Democrats ...

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Gonna archive this one. Should be great for some laughs in a few months.

 

[candycorn]

Georgia - Kentucky - Mississippi: 2014 pick-ups for the Democrats ...

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No way.

The GOP takes the Senate and Obama becomes known as Vet-O-Bama

 

[Bush92]

Mary Landrieu is toast.

 

[PeoplePower]

Nunn and Grimes are both great candidates, and in Mississippi, McDaniel is terrible.

Landrieu is a pretty strong candidate who had been polling well considering the climate, and Cassidy is much weaker than expected. It'll be close, but I expect Landrieu to pull it out, especially is Moon and Mitch give her some help.


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[GHook93]

2014 Senate Elections: Polls, Projections, Results - Election Projection

These predictions are based on the polls.

They have the GOP picking up LS, MT, NC, SD and WV (5 seats) for a 50/50 split. I think the GOP is going to also take AK and AR for a 52-48 split. Far cry from the 60 filibustering busting amount, but good enough.

 

[candycorn]

2014 Senate Elections: Polls, Projections, Results - Election Projection

These predictions are based on the polls.

They have the GOP picking up LS, MT, NC, SD and WV (5 seats) for a 50/50 split. I think the GOP is going to also take AK and AR for a 52-48 split. Far cry from the 60 filibustering busting amount, but good enough.

Once they get a majority, the GOP has every right to do away with the filibuster; the Dems foolishly did the same thing for some issues.

 

[william the wie]

2014 Senate Elections: Polls, Projections, Results - Election Projection

These predictions are based on the polls.

They have the GOP picking up LS, MT, NC, SD and WV (5 seats) for a 50/50 split. I think the GOP is going to also take AK and AR for a 52-48 split. Far cry from the 60 filibustering busting amount, but good enough.

Once they get a majority, the GOP has every right to do away with the filibuster; the Dems foolishly did the same thing for some issues.

Since the Ds hold the White House they are the current scapegoat party. Expect a lot of fallout due to the war on air pollution in China, Putin's screw ups in the Ukraine, Brazil's overspending on the world cup and legitimate domestic complaints as well. This could be blowout year for the Rs mostly but not entirely due to politicians in other countries.

 

[PeoplePower]

2014 Senate Elections: Polls, Projections, Results - Election Projection



These predictions are based on the polls.



They have the GOP picking up LS, MT, NC, SD and WV (5 seats) for a 50/50 split. I think the GOP is going to also take AK and AR for a 52-48 split. Far cry from the 60 filibustering busting amount, but good enough.

Once they get a majority, the GOP has every right to do away with the filibuster; the Dems foolishly did the same thing for some issues.

They got rid of it for appointees, not legislation.


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[Big Black Dog]

2014 US Senate predictions

I predict that when the elections are over there will be 100 Senators. Some Democrats, some Republicans and a couple Independents. NONE of them will be worth a shit.

 

[Nyvin]

2014 Senate Elections: Polls, Projections, Results - Election Projection

These predictions are based on the polls.

They have the GOP picking up LS, MT, NC, SD and WV (5 seats) for a 50/50 split. I think the GOP is going to also take AK and AR for a 52-48 split. Far cry from the 60 filibustering busting amount, but good enough.

Once they get a majority, the GOP has every right to do away with the filibuster; the Dems foolishly did the same thing for some issues.

Since the Ds hold the White House they are the current scapegoat party. Expect a lot of fallout due to the war on air pollution in China, Putin's screw ups in the Ukraine, Brazil's overspending on the world cup and legitimate domestic complaints as well. This could be blowout year for the Rs mostly but not entirely due to politicians in other countries.

At this stage there is absolutely nothing suggesting a blowout year.

 

[Old Rocks]

Georgia - Kentucky - Mississippi: 2014 pick-ups for the Democrats ...

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Gonna archive this one. Should be great for some laughs in a few months.

Well, that's fair, we surely had some fun after 6Nov12. Of course, should those states go Dem, then we will remind you of your statement. Fair is fair

 

[WelfareQueen]

I think the Senate goes narrowly Republican. I have always said the Dems will lose North Carolina. If I am wrong I will eat my crow as needed.

 

[JoeB131]

Here's the underlying problem.

This is the GOP's "Special Olympics" election.

Even if they win, they are still retarded.

Of the 12 states in play, 11 of them are states that Republicans carried in 2012 and 10 of them they carried in 2008. I would honestly hope they could win at least half of them.

The problem I see is that if they do retake the senate, they aren't going to fix the problems that caused them to lose in 2012. - That they've completely alienated women, working folks, minorities and the young.

Nope, they'll take a look at these off-year elections in states they shouldn't really be contesting at this point and think people love them again.