2014 US Senate predictions

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by Hoosier4Liberty, Feb 14, 2014.

  1. Hoosier4Liberty
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    Hoosier4Liberty Libertarian Republican

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    United States Senate elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    For the specific Senate predictions per state, post here.

    Based on current evidence, here are the winners for the competitive states in my projection:
    -Kentucky-McConnell barely. The state's nearly 30 points more GOP in its spread than the national average, but McConnell's approval ratings stink and Grimes could manage to win statewide.
    -Georgia-Whoever wins the GOP primary, most likely Phil Gingrey. I wouldn't be surprised if Michelle Nunn wins in November, but she won't get the 50% needed to avoid a runoff, and Dem turnout always tanks in December elections in this state.
    -Alaska: Sullivan should win this one fairly easily so long as Joe Miller doesn't decided to be a retard and run as an independent.
    -Arkansas: Pryor's done with Cotton. Polling confirms this, and the state has moved far to the right. Should be safe.
    -North Carolina: Thom Tillis. He's leading in the primary and general polling. Hagan is down against everyone and it's hard to see her recover.
    -Louisiana: This is a true tossup, but I might give Landrieu the tiniest of edges on this one. This election will be guaranteed to be a runoff(Jungle primary system in LA) between Cassidy and Landrieu. Unless this state is to decide control of the Senate, I think Landrieu's shown with her durability she can barely eke it out.
    -Michigan: Terry Land. The GOP does very well in Michigan during midterm elections as shown by 2010. She's a popular secretary of state and should win this one.
    -South Dakota/Montana/West Virginia: These should all be safe GOP pickups, though Montana is a bit shaky thanks to the Walsh appointment to the Senate. But Walsh is corrupt enough that he should go down in flames in Novebmer.
    -Iowa: Barely Braley. I think Matt Whittaker's a decent candidate, and Iowa could very well go down in a GOP wave. I have the same feelings about Oregon, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.
    -Virginia: Mark Warner. Despite the buzz about this race, Mark Warner's very popular and it would take a true GOP crush day to see him lose.
    -Colorado: This should be a GOP pickup as Udall is quite vulnerable. But Ken ****ing Buck decides that he has to run again. Owen Hill, Amy Stephens, and other candidates would all likely win, but Ken Buck appears poised to win the primary and thus Udall is favored to win. This race deeply annoys me.

    All the other races not mentioned are safe. My calculations give the GOP a 7 seat gain for control of the Senate with 52 seats.

    What are your predictions?
     
  2. Nyvin
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    Nyvin Gold Member

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    Terri Land is going through a lawsuit with cooperating with Super PACs right now. She has to survive that before the race can be called.

    Also the only real reason she's polling ahead is she has better name recognition then Peters. Once the public becomes more aware of her hardcore conservative rhetoric it will probably turn off Michigan voters who are actually on the moderate side. There isn't much of a "hardcore conservative" base in Michigan. She does have skeletons in the closet that will haunt her from her 8 years as Sec of State and the RNC stuff she ran.

    I still see North Carolina, Alaska, and Kentucky as toss-ups. Georgia still depends on the GOP primary which isn't really decided yet, it will be funny if Paul Broun wins it and slips up the race to Nunn.

    I'll admit Montana most likely will go to Steve Daines. He's a tough match honestly.
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2014
  3. Nyvin
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    Nyvin Gold Member

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    The way I see it...the GOP gains seats in the Senate, the Democrats gain Governorships. I don't see it as a very significant election.
     
  4. HenryBHough
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    HenryBHough Gold Member Supporting Member

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    Ah the sweet smell of impeachment..........

    Coming soon to a country that used to be free.
     
  5. Interpol
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    Interpol Radical Centrist

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    When you take away the 36 senate races being contended in November, it leaves 34 Democrats (including those Independents that caucus with them) and 30 Republicans.

    Republicans need to win 21 of 36 for the Senate majority. 20 will not do, because Biden is the tiebreaker.

    I just don't see a pathway to 51 for the GOP this year, particularly when we get to know at least a couple of the really strange characters we have yet to meet who will be running as Teabagger Republicans, and who will say crazy shit that will turn people off who are moderates.

    I too think Udall and Warner will hang on. Landrieu I'm not sure.

    If McConnell can't hang on in Kentucky (there seems to be some Mitch-fatigue out that way) then fuggedaboudit, that means the Democrats will have had a good election night.

    I'm not sure the Democrats can turn the House, but they can probably pick off another half dozen seats.
     
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  6. SayMyName
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    SayMyName Live, Love, Laugh.

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    Americans are so resigned to the conduct of the status quo, that I think they will vote the same way they normally do out of apathy. The House and Senate will remain roughly the same as now, with perhaps one or two wild cards coming in from parties out side the main two, meaning Libertarian or Independents.
     
  7. birddog
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    birddog Silver Member

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    It should be a landslide for the Republicans! There is a good chance of a 51-52 R senate, and the House will gain R seats. This should be obvious to anyone!
     
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  8. WelfareQueen
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    WelfareQueen Platinum Member

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    The oodsmakers are saying a 60% chance the Republicans take the Senate. That sounds about right to me.
     
  9. Zander
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    Zander Platinum Member

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    Republicans will win 6-9 Senate seats and take control of the Senate.

    Republicans will add to their House majority.

    Obamacare will be a yoke around the neck of every Democrat in the country.

    It's like 2010 all over again..
     
  10. Synthaholic
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    Synthaholic Platinum Member

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    I think Yurtle The Turtle finally becomes a highly paid lobbyist come November, with Grimes beating him, thanks to an assist from teabagger Bevins.

    Pryor over Cotton, mainly because Cotton comes off as a real dope, and even Arkansans can see it. Plus, Billary are planning on campaigning for Pryor, and they are still hugely popular in the state.

    Nunn in Georgia. It's very close to becoming a Blue state right now, and the teabaggers will seriously damage each other in the primary.

    Udall in Colorado.

    Landrieu in Louisiana.

    Warner in Virginia.
     

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