2.5 Trillion barrels of Oil Shale Oil

[JiggsCasey]

Too bad the oil markets don't agree with your doom-and-gloomery.

Actually, they do. Again, dude... I'll ask you once more.... why is the IEA, the Pentagon, the DoE, the EIA and the men in this video somehow lying? For what purpose:

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUVY2qrEfd8]YouTube - ASPO.TV News: Peak Oil Reality - Production & Depletion Issues[/ame]

Perhaps you'll venture a guess at some point. You know, something a bit more convincing than punting to "it's a big conspiracy!!"

 

[Oddball]

Whoop-de-do.

If what they were saying is true, then the market price for crude and RBOB gasoline would be going through the roof, as the demand increases and supply dwindles.

But it's not and prices remain relatively stable.

I'll take the information coming from thousands upon thousands of traders and consumers over the yammerings of a few bureaucrats any day of the week.

 

[KissMy]

I just checked the EIA charts for the last 3 years & other than (Other OECD) Crude Oil production is rising in every sector of the globe.

United States ........ Production is Rising
Other OECD .......... Production is Declining
Total OECD............ Production is Rising
Non-OECD ............. Production is Rising
OPEC5 .................. Production is Rising
Former U.S.S.R ..... Production is Rising
Other Non-OECD .... Production is Rising
Total Non-OECD ..... Production is Rising
Total World Supply . Production is Rising

 

[Old Rocks]

Peak oil was defined by Dr. Hubbert.

M. King Hubbert • Hubbert Peak of Oil Production

The late Dr. M. King Hubbert, geophysicist, is well known as a world authority on the estimation of energy resources and on the prediction of their patterns of discovery and depletion.

He was probably the best known geophysicist in the world to the general public because of his startling prediction, first made public in 1949, that the fossil fuel era would be of very short duration. "Energy from Fossil Fuels, Science" [scanned, 260 kb] [Printing aids] [February 4, 1949]

His prediction in 1956 that U.S.oil production would peak in about 1970 and decline thereafter was scoffed at then but his analysis has since proved to be remarkably accurate. See Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels by M. King Hubbert, Chief Consultant (General Geology), Exploration and Production Research Division, Shell Development Company, Publication Number 95, Houston, Texas, June 1956, Presented before the Spring Meeting of the Southern District, American Petroleum Institute, Plaza Hotel, San Antonio, Texas, March 7-8-9, 1956

 

[JiggsCasey]

I just checked the EIA charts for the last 3 years & other than (Other OECD) Crude Oil production is rising in every sector of the globe.

United States ........ Production is Rising
Other OECD .......... Production is Declining
Total OECD............ Production is Rising
Non-OECD ............. Production is Rising
OPEC5 .................. Production is Rising
Former U.S.S.R ..... Production is Rising
Other Non-OECD .... Production is Rising
Total Non-OECD ..... Production is Rising
Total World Supply . Production is Rising

is linking beyond your intrawebz skill level, or are you purposely not linking and hoping no one asks you for context?

 

[Oddball]

Markets don't lie, Mr. Malthus.

 

[JiggsCasey]

Markets don't lie, Mr. Malthus.

i see a very sick market, and getting sicker. so, no, they don't lie...

 

[KissMy]

I just checked the EIA charts for the last 3 years & other than (Other OECD) Crude Oil production is rising in every sector of the globe.

United States ........ Production is Rising
Other OECD .......... Production is Declining
Total OECD............ Production is Rising
Non-OECD ............. Production is Rising
OPEC5 .................. Production is Rising
Former U.S.S.R ..... Production is Rising
Other Non-OECD .... Production is Rising
Total Non-OECD ..... Production is Rising
Total World Supply . Production is Rising

is linking beyond your intrawebz skill level, or are you purposely not linking and hoping no one asks you for context?

I gave you the source. I said it was from the EIA. It is a Excel spreadsheet. Here is the link. They always manage to keep production in line with demand so it is hard to tell what is really going on. If a pipeline gets blown up in Nigeria it drops their sector & others rise to compensate. There is always spare capacity. As the charts below show, when demand dropped because of the recession then so did supply. Now that demand is rising so is supply. We are currently way over supplied. There is a oil glut in "Floating Storage" Oil producers running out of storage space.

 

[Oddball]

Markets don't lie, Mr. Malthus.

i see a very sick market, and getting sicker. so, no, they don't lie...

You see doom and gloom behind every bush.

 

[KissMy]

One of the Great Secrets of Commodity Investing

Earlier this decade, people were worried the U.S. was running out of natural gas... a vital commodity we use to produce chemicals, heat our homes, and generate electricity. From 1980 to 1999, domestic natural gas reserves fell 18%. Production only grew 1% a year on average. In short, we were pumping out more than we were finding... for nearly two decades.

Then, about 10 years ago, two incredible technologies entered the industry in a big way: Hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. Through the use of these technologies, we've learned that the U.S. sits on top of an incredible amount of natural gas. We've gone from dwindling reserves and plans to import gas... to boasting the world's second-largest hoard of the stuff, just behind Russia. You want energy security? You want natural gas.

Shale rock is thin layers of fine-grain sediment, stacked like pages in a book. There is nearly no "conductivity" in shale, which means fluids like oil and gas can't move through it. But shales are typically full of organic material and hold enormous amounts of oil and gas locked up inside.

In my college days, we learned shale was the oil and gas "kitchen," the source of the black gold we wanted to find. Some of the good stuff would migrate out into sand stones, where we could get it out. Other than thinking about them as source rocks, we ignored shale... until hydraulic fracturing opened our eyes.

Fracking is a process that uses high-pressure fluids to force the layers of shale apart. Carried in the fluid are tiny grains of "proppant" – sand or ceramic spheres – that hold the layers of shale open after the pressure from the fluid fades.

 

[JiggsCasey]

One of the Great Secrets of Commodity Investing

Earlier this decade, people were worried the U.S. was running out of natural gas... a vital commodity we use to produce chemicals, heat our homes, and generate electricity. From 1980 to 1999, domestic natural gas reserves fell 18%. Production only grew 1% a year on average. In short, we were pumping out more than we were finding... for nearly two decades.

Then, about 10 years ago, two incredible technologies entered the industry in a big way: Hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. Through the use of these technologies, we've learned that the U.S. sits on top of an incredible amount of natural gas. We've gone from dwindling reserves and plans to import gas... to boasting the world's second-largest hoard of the stuff, just behind Russia. You want energy security? You want natural gas.

Shale rock is thin layers of fine-grain sediment, stacked like pages in a book. There is nearly no "conductivity" in shale, which means fluids like oil and gas can't move through it. But shales are typically full of organic material and hold enormous amounts of oil and gas locked up inside.

In my college days, we learned shale was the oil and gas "kitchen," the source of the black gold we wanted to find. Some of the good stuff would migrate out into sand stones, where we could get it out. Other than thinking about them as source rocks, we ignored shale... until hydraulic fracturing opened our eyes.

Fracking is a process that uses high-pressure fluids to force the layers of shale apart. Carried in the fluid are tiny grains of "proppant" – sand or ceramic spheres – that hold the layers of shale open after the pressure from the fluid fades.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZe1AeH0Qz8]YouTube - GASLAND Trailer 2010[/ame]

Ah yes... The shale gas silver bullet, trotted out by "nothing to see here" denialists who Google-spam anything they can find in a desperate attempt to minimize the realities of global oil depletion. ... It's like the default fallback position.

Vastly overestimated reserve totals, and devastating to the environment... Not that cons ever include environmental costs into EROEI...

Again, however, you seem to be arguing both sides of the coin... If we were "way over supplied" with crude sitting offshore, why in God's name would we "need" to embark on expanded hydraulic fracturing for dirtier, heavier oils and poorer-grade gas? Further, what is a bit more gas going to do for rubber, plastic, pesticides, fertilizer, etc. industries?

Which is it? Is there plenty of oil, or isn't there? And if so, where is it? You continue to REFUSE to show the forum where this hope-based belief system comes from. Where is the oil? In what amount? And, even if they DID miraculously find the 4-5 Saudi Arabia's worth of new oil to offset existing dying capacity, it will take 8-10 years to get that energy to the market. Collapse is starting now.

At some point, you'll actually begin to get it. But probably not until you lose your job and/or your municipality starts cut way back on basic civil services. And even then, you'll probably blame liberals for it all. It's what you guys do.

One last time... Where IS the oil?

 

[JiggsCasey]

I just checked the EIA charts for the last 3 years & other than (Other OECD) Crude Oil production is rising in every sector of the globe.

United States ........ Production is Rising
Other OECD .......... Production is Declining
Total OECD............ Production is Rising
Non-OECD ............. Production is Rising
OPEC5 .................. Production is Rising
Former U.S.S.R ..... Production is Rising
Other Non-OECD .... Production is Rising
Total Non-OECD ..... Production is Rising
Total World Supply . Production is Rising

is linking beyond your intrawebz skill level, or are you purposely not linking and hoping no one asks you for context?

I gave you the source. I said it was from the EIA. It is a Excel spreadsheet. Here is the link. They always manage to keep production in line with demand so it is hard to tell what is really going on. If a pipeline gets blown up in Nigeria it drops their sector & others rise to compensate. There is always spare capacity. As the charts below show, when demand dropped because of the recession then so did supply. Now that demand is rising so is supply. We are currently way over supplied. There is a oil glut in "Floating Storage" Oil producers running out of storage space.

LOL... You need to take a much closer look at what you're trying to present with your EIA spreadsheet, hopey.

Look at the 2006 total world supply average vs. 2009 total world supply average... That's a DOWNWARD slope, chap.... Not up. ... Demand went up til 2008, and then DOWN after the crash and recession of 2008. ... Supply affects the economy, which affects demand, not the other way around.

I can see why you didn't wanna link it at first, and just wrote "is rising," and hoped no one followed up. ... Your premise just fell on its ass.

Again, WHERE is the new oil going forward that will satisfy 85 million - 95 million barrels per day of demand consumption? You won't answer because you can't find it. You can't find it because it doesn't exist. Period, end of story.

 

[KissMy]

I just checked the EIA charts for the last 3 years & other than (Other OECD) Crude Oil production is rising in every sector of the globe.

United States ........ 2007 8.46mbpd - 2010 9.46mbpd - Production is Rising
Other OECD .......... 2007 13.0mbpd - 2010 11.95mbpd - Production is Declining
Non-OECD ............. 2007 63.04mbpd - 2010 64.54mbpd - Production is Rising
OPEC5 .................. 2007 34.37mbpd - 2010 34.51mbpd - Production is Rising
Former U.S.S.R ..... 2007 12.61mbpd - 2010 13.11mbpd - Production is Rising
Other Non-OECD .... 2007 16.07mbpd - 2010 16.92mbpd - Production is Rising
Total Non-OECD ..... 2007 63.04mbpd - 2010 64.54mbpd - Production is Rising
Total World Supply . 2007 84.5mbpd - 2010 85.95mbpd - Production is Rising

 

[JiggsCasey]

I just checked the EIA charts for the last 3 years & other than (Other OECD) Crude Oil production is rising in every sector of the globe.

United States ........ 2007 8.46mbpd - 2010 9.46mbpd - Production is Rising
Other OECD .......... 2007 13.0mbpd - 2010 11.95mbpd - Production is Declining
Non-OECD ............. 2007 63.04mbpd - 2010 64.54mbpd - Production is Rising
OPEC5 .................. 2007 34.37mbpd - 2010 34.51mbpd - Production is Rising
Former U.S.S.R ..... 2007 12.61mbpd - 2010 13.11mbpd - Production is Rising
Other Non-OECD .... 2007 16.07mbpd - 2010 16.92mbpd - Production is Rising
Total Non-OECD ..... 2007 63.04mbpd - 2010 64.54mbpd - Production is Rising
Total World Supply . 2007 84.5mbpd - 2010 85.95mbpd - Production is Rising

Dude, you're comparing one quarter of 2010 to the average of 2007... What matters is the annual average of total production from that year, to 2009. Try and follow along here.

Total 2010 figures are obviously not in yet.

World oil production has largely flatlined since 2004, while demand has continued to soar. That should sound alarm bells with anyone thinking rationally. Why is this fact lost on people like you, who play convenient mind games with numbers?

 

[KissMy]

Who cares where they get the oil. We are oversupplied. Prices are high from weak dollar. I will bet you in 10 years you will look back & see the world has not peaked in 2005, 2008 or 2010, because for the last 91 years all these predictions have been wrong. That being said it is highly likely the growth of population, industry & living standards around the world may cause the growth in oil demand to out strip the growth in oil production.

Even if they are true I could care less. I hardly use oil any how. I have a 5kw wind generator & 5kw solar panels with 10kw battery storage. I have a farm & can grow & hunt all my family needs. I am waiting for them to build a decent an electric pick-up truck. The wind blew hard last week & all the excess power blew the Chinese wind charge control regulator. This prevented over-speed braking on my wind generator & all the blades flew off. Talk about pissed. The average person is not going to be able to deal with this shit. I am building a better controller now. I own 10% of a POET ethanol plant & 8% of a bio-diesel plant. I use ethanol or bio-diesel in all my vehicles. My home is well insulated with spray foam insulation with thermal windows & doors. I use all fluorescent lighting, geothermal heat pump, rain capture cistern, recycle & use a clothesline instead of a dryer. It will suck a bit but I will make it.

I am greener than any liberal, democrat, hippie I know. The retards all bash big oil while they are filling up with the stuff all the time. It is laughable. On the bright side having a country full of energy wasters leaves a lot of room to conserve if a peak actually occurred. Plenty of time left to prepare to ride the slide. The fear that these climate & peak doomers put into the population causes prices of shit to skyrocket. The massive amounts of money being made off the citizens with these fear tactics by the perpetrators of these myths. Nearly all of them are raking in big money from these fear tactics.

Money spent to buy oil does not disappear. Oil producers invest or spend it. Hence rising oil prices shift wealth and income around the globe, not destroy it. To the extent that oil producers save more than oil consumers, this has a net slowing effect on the economy. But nothing like the Armageddon described in doomsters’ forecasts. This reduced growth in GDP slows the growth in demand for oil. If prices rise so that real global GDP slows to 2%/year (very roughly), oil demand no longer increases. If oil prices rocket high enough, global GDP will actually fall (historically a rare event, except during wars). Investment in renewable will skyrocket & oil demand will fall further.

 

[JiggsCasey]

Who cares where they get the oil. We are oversupplied. Prices are high from weak dollar. I will bet you in 10 years you will look back & see the world has not peaked in 2005, 2008 or 2010, because for the last 91 years all these predictions have been wrong. That being said it is highly likely the growth of population, industry & living standards around the world may cause the growth in oil demand to out strip the growth in oil production.

Yay for you, Capt. Obvious! Good to see you're finally getting it. Half of it, anyway.

Even if they are true I could care less. I hardly use oil any how. I have a 5kw wind generator & 5kw solar panels with 10kw battery storage. I have a farm & can grow & hunt all my family needs. I am waiting for them to build a decent an electric pick-up truck. The wind blew hard last week & all the excess power blew the Chinese wind charge control regulator. This prevented over-speed braking on my wind generator & all the blades flew off. Talk about pissed. The average person is not going to be able to deal with this shit. I am building a better controller now. I own 10% of a POET ethanol plant & 8% of a bio-diesel plant. I use ethanol or bio-diesel in all my vehicles. My home is well insulated with spray foam insulation with thermal windows & doors. I use all fluorescent lighting, geothermal heat pump, rain capture cistern, recycle & use a clothesline instead of a dryer. It will suck a bit but I will make it.

Not that I believe much of this above about you, but good for you. Unfortunately, 99.9% of the people around you have not invested in those sustainability methods, and could never afford the installation of it. But thanks for expanding on the compassion-free stereotype (for his fellow American) on the modern con man. Way to give a shit about anyone but yourself there, champ.

I am greener than any liberal, democrat, hippie I know. The retards all bash big oil while they are filling up with the stuff all the time. It is laughable. On the bright side having a country full of energy wasters leaves a lot of room to conserve if a peak actually occurred. Plenty of time left to prepare to ride the slide. The fear that these climate & peak doomers put into the population causes prices of shit to skyrocket. The massive amounts of money being made off the citizens with these fear tactics by the perpetrators of these myths. Nearly all of them are raking in big money from these fear tactics.

LOL! ... There you go again, trying to argue both sides. So which is it? Is peak a supply/demand problem, or is it all just because "liberal doomers" are "driving the price up" with their "fear tactics?"

My gawd, you're all over the place in this thread. Your argument has been dismantled, your rationale revealed as laughable angry con man rhetoric, and your arrogance undeniable.

Money spent to buy oil does not disappear.

No, just the oil.

Review the basic laws of thermodynamics, genius. 1) Energy can be converted from one form to another, it cannot be created or destroyed. 2) In all energy exchanges, if no energy leaves or enters the system, the potential (usable) energy of the state will always be less than that of the initial state.

Despite what you cons think, showing up at the bank window with gobs of cash doesn't magically put more oil in the ground.

Oil producers invest or spend it. Hence rising oil prices shift wealth and income around the globe, not destroy it. To the extent that oil producers save more than oil consumers, this has a net slowing effect on the economy. But nothing like the Armageddon described in doomsters’ forecasts. This reduced growth in GDP slows the growth in demand for oil. If prices rise so that real global GDP slows to 2%/year (very roughly), oil demand no longer increases. If oil prices rocket high enough, global GDP will actually fall (historically a rare event, except during wars). Investment in renewable will skyrocket & oil demand will fall further.

None of this "fun with basic economics" self-rationalization says anything about the supply:demand ratio. The fact that the rise in price affects growth in an adverse way INDICATES the ramifications of peak oil!!! Hello!!???? Is this thing on? So, you've just admitted what happens. Well done. ... But, amazingly, you adhere to the "markets will sort everything out" principle, as if it will all transition seamlessly into alternatives. ... That kind of paradigm shift in a transition to alternative infrastructure will take 25-30 years. Collpase is starting now.... You clearly don't have any idea what a 10 million b/pd shortfall will mean for the global economy.

We had BETTER enact a Marshall Plan for renewables immediately. Unfortunately, there are just enough people, like you, who don't get it, contradict their own argument, and believe the "market will fix everything," to hell with civil breakdown. They exhaust their efforts trying to convince people that there is both a problem and no problem.

Cons are so dumb.

 

[KissMy]

There is no need for a marshal plan. We just need to change a couple of laws.

1rst) - The biggest obstacle of all is selling power to the grid. I can build 10 - 1.5mw wind turbines on my windy 1000 acers for far less less than 1 million each. But I can't get the utility to buy the power. There are 3 different power utility companies that have lines running through my land & 1 has a 161kv 10 wire transmission line. Democrat Tom Carnahan received $900 million from stimulus & has made deals with all of the utilities so the small guy is shut out. This shit has to change!

2nd) - The biggest expense of owning an automobile is the mandatory license, tax, title & insurance. People would buy a small electric auto for short daily commutes & have a large gas backup auto for big loads & long distance. The problem is you have to pay all these fees for the one sitting in the drive most of the time. There needs to be a portable license tag / insurance program that transfers to both autos that only allows you to drive one at a time so the cost would be the same as just one vehicle.

These 2 changes would create a green revolution without a need for stimulus.

Also just because someone made a global peak oil graph does not in any way mean oil production will follow that chart. The only accurate chart is one made from data leading up to the date the chart was made. The second half of that peak oil chart is pure fairytale speculation. As evidenced on the US oil production chart below we would not have peaked in 1971 if it were not for politics. If it peaked due to geology it would have peaked in or after 1985 had it not been for congress oil production restrictions imposed, OPEC flooding our markets with cheap foreign oil & the limiting size of the Alaska Pipeline. Politics in other countries around the world have also affected their production. Peak production is not based solely on geology.

 

[KissMy]

World total oil production capacity in April 2010 is at 90.09 million b/d. World production capacity is measured here as the sum of world liquids production excluding biofuels plus total OPEC spare capacity excluding Iraq, Venezuela and Nigeria.

Total world liquid fuels production of 86.62 million b/d. Liquids production for March 2010.

Non-OPEC oil production has been increasing steadily since late 2009, the OPEC cartel has a large surplus of oil production capacity of 5+ million barrels per day, and OECD crude oil stocks are at very high levels compared to the past five years above a 1000 million barrels.- The Oil Drum

Global oil demand for 2011 is expected to rise by 1.6% or 1.3 mb/d year-on-year to 87.8 mb/d, assuming consensus trends in the world economy, crude prices and efficiency gains. - IEA / OMR

There has been no peak oil to date. With no new discoveries peak would not arrive until 2015. That's the thing about new discoveries, you don't know what you will discover. The peak oilers were out in force saying we peaked in 2005. Now they are silent & peak has been pushed off until 2015. Oil producers say it will be 2035 - 2050.

 

[Big Fitz]

Markets don't lie, Mr. Malthus.

i see a very sick market, and getting sicker. so, no, they don't lie...

Dorkter... you have the chart upside down.

 

[KissMy]

Awe, The Peak Oil doomers are busted again. The chart below shows production capacity is outpacing actual production. We also have a glut of oil in storage. The price is only high because of the weaking US Dollar. THERE IS NO PEAK OIL.