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Southern troops could have(and could have and $5 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks) massed and taken Washington very early, and maybe the US would have let them go.They were a tattered, lost, moribund confederacy by 1865.
The South never stood a chance. They were outmanned, outgunned, out-infrastructured, out-everythinged....out of all possibility of winning.
It wasn't a matter of if, it was a matter of when.
If they could have won a few more battles and forced European Recognition of the confederacy, they could have ended with a negotiated withdrawal from the Union.
Harry Turtledove's Timeline 191 has a plausible Confederate win scenario as its basis for the subsequent alternate history.
Southern Victory Series - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia
I think Lincolns emancipation card trumped that
European nations did not want to come on to the side defending slavery. They desperately wanted the cotton but I don't think they would have challenged the union blockade to get it
I read Turtledoves Guns of the South where he looked at what if the South got AK-47s
Probable as plausible
That's a bit of an exaggeration about the "Guns of the South" reference comparing to a different outcome to Antietam. If Lee was able to park his army in Philadelphia in 1862, things may have been different.
Like all wars, it all comes down to logistics
Even if Lee were to take Philadelphia, I doubt if he could keep it. The South would have been unable to support an occupying force in Philadelphia by sea. The land routes available at the time would not have supported his Army
The proper way to have solved the issue would have been a Constitutional Convention and a mutually agreed upon dissolution of the Union.
Which is what we ought to do now.
Who needs to be a superpower anyway.
France is doing fine since they gave up that idea.
Three republics running their own affairs, behind their own nuclear shield, would be a Hell of a lot better for the rest of the world too.
I don't think Washington had the strategic importance that Boston, New York or Philadelphia had
If DC fell, I think the capitol would have moved to Philadelphia. I don't think the union would have collapsed