You can't predict weather more than 7 days into the future. So how can they predict climate 30 years into the future?

[Robert W]

This video is by a defender of Man harms weather or the globe.
But around minute 29 he admits weather can't be predicted a week into the future.

Try to resolve this dilemma.

 

[Flash]

That is why absolutely none of the dire predictions made by Environmental Wackos in the last 30 years have come true.

Like this one

 

[EMH]

If your theory is that increasing atmospheric Co2 warms the atmosphere, you TEST that THEORY with DATA.

We have TWO and ONLY TWO measures of atmospheric temps, satellites and balloons. Both showed NO WARMING in the atmosphere despite rising Co2 in highly correlated fashion before being FUDGED in 2005 with laughable BS...

THEORY REJECTED

Key claim against global warming evaporates

Satellite and weather balloon data used to argue that climate models were wrong and that global warming isn't really happening turns out to be based on faulty analyses, according to three new studies.

www.nbcnews.com

satellite and weather balloon data have actually suggested the opposite, that the atmosphere was cooling.

 

[EMH]

That is why absolutely none of the dire predictions made by Environmental Wackos in the last 30 years have come true.

Like this one

View attachment 886971

And that is why there is NO OCEAN RISE, because there is NO ONGOING NET ICE MELT because

Planet Earth is NOT WARMING

 

[Hang on Sloopy]

This video is by a defender of Man harms weather or the globe.
But around minute 29 he admits weather can't be predicted a week into the future.

Try to resolve this dilemma.

well the polar vortex is hitting chicago...lolol.......i hope it is a disaster of epic proportions

 

[Flash]

And that is why there is NO OCEAN RISE, because there is NO ONGOING NET ICE MELT because

Planet Earth is NOT WARMING

We are in a post glacial warming period. Natural climate change is real. It has been going on since the beginning of time. However, we have absolutely no scientifically defensible proof that there is any man made component to our climate. Just a silly ass correlation, a lot of fraudulent and cherry picked data and some shit in-shit out computer models that can't even pass the snicker test.

 

[toobfreak]

You can't predict weather more than 7 days into the future. So how can they predict climate 30 years into the future?​

Same basic question I've asked many times and always get the cryptic reply that climate is not weather as if I'm an idiot. In most cases, the weather forecasts are really only accurate for a day or two, down to 75% by day 3, then maybe 50 to 25% accurate by a week out.

That is how poor our modeling is.

 

[EMH]

We are in a post glacial warming period

You are LOST in what is called Milankovich Cycles, which is really McBullshit, and has been destroyed here on USMB on both poles.

The lies of Milankovich Cycles aka McBullshit - where was land mass Antarctica 70 million years ago

McBullshit claims Antarctica has been on the South Pole forever, it never moved at all. And, while it is on the South Pole, it has rapidly gone from ice age to tropical paradise and back over and over.... a Dennis Quaid theory for sure... We know that Antarctica has 70 million year old...

www.usmessageboard.com

How old were the 2.5 mile thick glaciers covering Chicago in the past 20k-5 million years?

This is where the climate debate is now stuck. Every piece of land within 600 miles of a pole is in ice age, everything outside of that is not. Nobody has attempted to dispute that. It is the clear truth of Earth today. Milankovitch Cycles, which I call McBullshit Cycles, take a very...

www.usmessageboard.com

Anything "glacial period" is complete bullshit. It would help if you understood the real definition and cause of ICE AGE too...

Apparently we really need a "debate" over the term ICE AGE because y'all are all wrong...

What is an ICE AGE? Most apparently still believe it is a terrifying horror movie event where Earth all at once freezes up. The data has never supported such a scenario. Since 2010, there has been a massive effort to re-write Earth climate history into a series of rapid "glaciations" and ice...

www.usmessageboard.com

 

[EMH]

Same basic question I've asked many times and always get the cryptic reply that climate is not weather as if I'm an idiot. In most cases, the weather forecasts are really only accurate for a day or two, down to 75% by day 3, then maybe 50 to 25% accurate by a week out.

That is how poor our modeling is.

Based on a faulty theory that gets disproven every year... Co2 does NOTHING.

 

[Donald H]

It's always good that the discussion is renewed and started over again and again on this board.

I see it as being quite similar to the Christians starting new threads that are meant to appeal to atheists.

Their faith just isn't doing the job of keeping Mr.Doubt at bay.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

You are LOST in what is called Milankovich Cycles, which is really McBullshit, and has been destroyed here on USMB on both poles.

The lies of Milankovich Cycles aka McBullshit - where was land mass Antarctica 70 million years ago

McBullshit claims Antarctica has been on the South Pole forever, it never moved at all. And, while it is on the South Pole, it has rapidly gone from ice age to tropical paradise and back over and over.... a Dennis Quaid theory for sure... We know that Antarctica has 70 million year old...

www.usmessageboard.com

How old were the 2.5 mile thick glaciers covering Chicago in the past 20k-5 million years?

This is where the climate debate is now stuck. Every piece of land within 600 miles of a pole is in ice age, everything outside of that is not. Nobody has attempted to dispute that. It is the clear truth of Earth today. Milankovitch Cycles, which I call McBullshit Cycles, take a very...

www.usmessageboard.com

Anything "glacial period" is complete bullshit. It would help if you understood the real definition and cause of ICE AGE too...

Apparently we really need a "debate" over the term ICE AGE because y'all are all wrong...

What is an ICE AGE? Most apparently still believe it is a terrifying horror movie event where Earth all at once freezes up. The data has never supported such a scenario. Since 2010, there has been a massive effort to re-write Earth climate history into a series of rapid "glaciations" and ice...

www.usmessageboard.com

Obama burned all the books that backed your claims. Bummer.

 

[shockedcanadian]

This video is by a defender of Man harms weather or the globe.
But around minute 29 he admits weather can't be predicted a week into the future.

Try to resolve this dilemma.

Come on man, haven't you see one of these?

 

[EMH]

Obama burned all the books that backed your claims. Bummer.

Don't need "books."

The argument present is 100% proof to anyone who reads it with an IQ over 100....

 

[Robert W]

Same basic question I've asked many times and always get the cryptic reply that climate is not weather as if I'm an idiot. In most cases, the weather forecasts are really only accurate for a day or two, down to 75% by day 3, then maybe 50 to 25% accurate by a week out.

That is how poor our modeling is.

Tell them to try to have climate without weather.

 

[1srelluc]

I was at a cookout former US Senator John Warner threw and Willard Scott was there sorta holding court and to make a long story short said if anyone who says they can predict the weather (other than in broad strokes) farther-out than 36 hours is a damn liar.....All these 5-10 day forecasts we see now are just ways to keep viewers watching the local news.

In case you youngins' did not know who he was.

Willard Scott - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Flash]

You are LOST in what is called Milankovich Cycles, which is really McBullshit, and has been destroyed here on USMB on both poles.

The lies of Milankovich Cycles aka McBullshit - where was land mass Antarctica 70 million years ago

McBullshit claims Antarctica has been on the South Pole forever, it never moved at all. And, while it is on the South Pole, it has rapidly gone from ice age to tropical paradise and back over and over.... a Dennis Quaid theory for sure... We know that Antarctica has 70 million year old...

www.usmessageboard.com

How old were the 2.5 mile thick glaciers covering Chicago in the past 20k-5 million years?

This is where the climate debate is now stuck. Every piece of land within 600 miles of a pole is in ice age, everything outside of that is not. Nobody has attempted to dispute that. It is the clear truth of Earth today. Milankovitch Cycles, which I call McBullshit Cycles, take a very...

www.usmessageboard.com

Anything "glacial period" is complete bullshit. It would help if you understood the real definition and cause of ICE AGE too...

Apparently we really need a "debate" over the term ICE AGE because y'all are all wrong...

What is an ICE AGE? Most apparently still believe it is a terrifying horror movie event where Earth all at once freezes up. The data has never supported such a scenario. Since 2010, there has been a massive effort to re-write Earth climate history into a series of rapid "glaciations" and ice...

www.usmessageboard.com

I understand the Milankoyich cycle very well. The last Ice Age ended about 12,000 years ago and we are in a post glacial period now. It is likely that we will have another Ice Age with in the next 20-30K years or so due to that cycle. In the meantime we will have periods of warming and periods of cold.

None of that man made.

The thing we need to keep in mind is that climate change is the norm for Mother Earth. All of the species that went extinct on earth was either directly or indirectly caused by climate change.

I am not worried unlike these Environmental Wackos. Humans can adapt like they did in the past.

 

[Crick]

This video is by a defender of Man harms weather or the globe.
But around minute 29 he admits weather can't be predicted a week into the future.

Try to resolve this dilemma.

Predicting what the planet's, annual, average temperature will be 50 years from now is not the same as predicting the odds of rain in Chicago the day after tomorrow. I know you will say, "I know, I know", but you do not else you wouldn't have made that observation as if it had any bearing.

When you want to figure out the odds of rain at a given location at some point in the future, you have to look at that point's surroundings out to the distance that could conceivably affect the weather at your point of interest in your selected time span. You need to examine what is most likely to happen throughout that entire region. That will require looking to where the air is moving, how moisture levels are changing, precipitation, what the temperature and pressure isobars are doing and so forth. And it is much like a chess game. Such-and-such might happen which would lead to this or this other thing might happen which would lead to that. It is not a simple thing and that complex interdependence determining what will happen in a specific place and a specific time is the constraint that limits accurate weather reports to a handful of days.

If all you are interested in is the temperature of the planet as a whole, things may get bigger, but they simultaneously get much simpler. The Earth as a whole will take in solar energy and, as a whole, will radiate away infrared. That is all that has to be known to calculate our temperature in 50 years. The incoming is quite stable and predictable. The outgoing can be looked at a few different ways but benefits from the fact that there are limited and predictable changes in the parameters critical to planetary emissions. Greenhouse gases are increasing and we already have preassembled scenarios describing a range of manners in which that can take place. As the computers work through those scenarios, they will continuously update the Earth's temperature which, in turn, will dictate how much IR leaves the planet's surface and the speed with which it escapes the atmosphere. The emissivity parameters of the planet's surface do not change. The affect of water vapor due to increased temperature is calculable. There are no surprises. The flexibility of the planet as a whole is far less than that of the atmosphere surrounding, say, Chicago, particularly at the depth at which the two must be examined for these differing processes.

Besides, if the public were willing to take multiple weather reports based on multiple scenarios, it would be possible to give usable weather forecasts significantly further than our mandatory single stream does now.

 

[Crick]

I understand the Milankoyich cycle very well. The last Ice Age ended about 12,000 years ago and we are in a post glacial period now. It is likely that we will have another Ice Age with in the next 20-30K years or so due to that cycle. In the meantime we will have periods of warming and periods of cold.

None of that man made.

The thing we need to keep in mind is that climate change is the norm for Mother Earth. All of the species that went extinct on earth was either directly or indirectly caused by climate change.

I am not worried unlike these Environmental Wackos. Humans can adapt like they did in the past.

The current warming trend IS man made and in direct opposition to the cooling that Milankovitch is attempting to continue producing.

 

[Crick]

I was at a cookout former US Senator John Warner threw and Willard Scott was there sorta holding court and to make a long story short said if anyone who says they can predict the weather (other than in broad strokes) farther-out than 36 hours is a damn liar.....All these 5-10 day forecasts we see now are just ways to keep viewers watching the local news.

In case you youngins' did not know who he was.

Willard Scott - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Willard Scott was a very nice weather "presenter". He had a bachelor's degree in "Philosophy and Religion" and spent his entire career performing weather broadcasts and other entertainment. He never received any formal training in meteorology. He was never involved in any climate studies of any sort. I'm sure it was nice to meet him but his comments are irrelevant to any discussion of climate science.

 

[Hang on Sloopy]

That is why absolutely none of the dire predictions made by Environmental Wackos in the last 30 years have come true.

Like this one

View attachment 886971

lol.......he should get the max penalty for treason