You can't predict racial demographics of future

[dfens]

"By 2050" is a meaningless statement, it's still 33 years away. We are the same distance from 2050 as we are from 1984.

Of course there are trends, but trends can reverse. They do all the time. There are all sorts of things that can happen between now and then. The United States could become less desirable for immigrants. White people, or even black people, could push back. Heck even immigrants can decide to return home.

Everybody just takes current trends, and extrapolates them infinitely out into the future, and calls that analysis. It's not, it's just jibberish. If that was true, nobody would die. Everybody would live to 150, 200, 300, 1000 years old. There would be no recessions, the stock market would never fall, it would rise to infinity.

 

[Fenton Lum]

"Everybody just takes current trends, and extrapolates them infinitely out into the future, and calls that analysis. It's not, it's just jibberish. If that was true, nobody would die. Everybody would live to 150, 200, 300, 1000 years old."

I'm no at all sure you grasp how these extrapolations are done at all.

"There would be no recessions, the stock market would never fall, it would rise to infinity."

Impossible in american style "capitalism".

 

[WinterBorn]

Nothing in these predictions is guaranteed. But looking at the immigration rates and birth rates over the last 20 or 30 years can give us a very good idea of what to expect.

The problem is the assumption that things will change drastically. The same gov't system will be in place. The same capitalistic system will be in place. Likely very little will change.