Would a federal abortion law be struck down by the Supreme Court?

[Ray From Cleveland]

Very doubtful, unless the law was written by cretins. THIS Supreme Court would be willing to accept a Federal Law banning — or almost banning — abortions. If Trump and his MAGA Republicans win big in 2022 and 2024 they will probably push such a law … just to punish and “own” liberals and to solidify their crazy religious base. That nutty base believes, as the above commenter makes clear, that every fertilized human egg is a human being and should be protected under the Constitution.

Even prominent rightwing writers in The Federalist have argued that the legal case for a Federal Law against abortion is clear, though some are worried about its “popularity.” Ex-Vice President Pence has always supported such a law.

See my discussion in an earlier thread and some links here:

The fight for abortion rights turns to state constitutions

“A suit in Oklahoma contends that the state’s competing abortion bans violate due process as well as a constitutional ‘right to personal autonomy and bodily integrity.’ That argument actually makes sense. roeVwade was a farce of a decision. I am as pro choice as they come and agree the ruling...

www.usmessageboard.com

Even Republicans understand making a federal law against abortion would likely be political suicide. They may put on an act to try and keep their religious base, but they will plan on certain reps to vote against it so they can say they tried.

 

[task0778]

THIS Supreme Court would be willing to accept a Federal Law banning — or almost banning — abortions.

I highly doubt that. Just as there is no basis for granting a constitutional right to an abortion, so also is there no grounds for banning abortions either. There is no legal definition for when life is protected under the Constitution, And IMHO it is beyond the authority for any branch of the federal gov't to do so. In simple terms, the Congress should only be allowed to pass legislation that fall under the auspices of the enumerated functions they are supposed to perform, and the current Court has decreed that abortion does not fall under any of those functions.

But all of this is speculative, neither the Left nor the Right has the votes in the Senate to pass the abortion laws that each side wants, which is all or nothing. Leaving it to the individual states is the only viable option right now. I think that is precisely what the Supreme Court is doing, throwing the issue back to the states where in fact it belongs.

 

[Lesh]

I highly doubt that. Just as there is no basis for granting a constitutional right to an abortion, so also is there no grounds for banning abortions either. There is no legal definition for when life is protected under the Constitution, And IMHO it is beyond the authority for any branch of the federal gov't to do so. In simple terms, the Congress should only be allowed to pass legislation that fall under the auspices of the enumerated functions they are supposed to perform, and the current Court has decreed that abortion does not fall under any of those functions.

But all of this is speculative, neither the Left nor the Right has the votes in the Senate to pass the abortion laws that each side wants, which is all or nothing. Leaving it to the individual states is the only viable option right now. I think that is precisely what the Supreme Court is doing, throwing the issue back to the states where in fact it belongs.

"No basis" means nothing to this activist radical Court

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

Even Republicans understand making a federal law against abortion would likely be political suicide. They may put on an act to try and keep their religious base, but they will plan on certain reps to vote against it so they can say they tried.

Many Trump Republicans do not agree. Most of Trump’s base as well as the religious anti-abortion base is looking to turn this country into an “illiberal state” dominated by their own crazies.

Especially if our economy craters due to international conflict with China & Russia, I expect the hysterical dynamic will worsen and take the U.S. toward a new reality, where a “real American” Christian and nationalist Trump or MAGA party will do exactly what I outline. We could become a crusading American version of, say, anti-communist Poland — where abortion is banned.

I do hope I’m wrong — on many levels. But war is coming. More soldiers will be needed to die on foreign shores.

I believe that an anti-abortion national law, which Republican supporters might propose as a “compromise” law — one that limited abortions nationally to only the first eight weeks or less (Ron DeSantis has apparently discussed this) — could by 2025 be passed in Congress, get a Republican president’s approval, and also pass review by the present Republican super-majority on the Supreme Court.