Mr. Woods had two separate and distinct catastrophe's at almost the same time - one self-inflicted and one sort-of self-inflicted.
On the personal level, he fucked up his marriage and his commercial persona through sexual and other misdeeds. He was no victim on that side.
On the golf side, he allowed himself to be distracted for a year or so (can't blame him for that), and then began to suffer injuries related to over-work and over-conditioning. Golfers ARE NOT, AND DO NOT NEED TO BE athletes. Tiger forgot that, and has tried for a long time to be an athlete, with running, weight training, hyper-stretching, and so on. In maintaining that rigorous athletic regimen, he fucked up his knee and his back, which compromised his swing in several ways, and over multiple golf-years.
Now through several surgeries and extensive rehab, he is physically ready to start golfing seriously now.
But the reason why he is a relative "favorite" this week (roughly one-in 8 chance of winning, as of this morning), is his mental toughness, which is presumably the same as before all the brouhaha. Tiger is unique in a way that only a golfer can understand. Tiger is the only golfer ever who consistently won tournaments when he was leading on Sunday morning. Other "greats," mainly Palmer were famous for winning, and for coming from behind on Sunday, but for every other "great" in the history of the game, if they were leading on Sunday morning, they only won the tournament about half the time. They would go into "protect" mode on Sunday, shoot a 73, and hope nobody caught up with them. Not so with Tiger.
Also, Augusta National is a very challenging course because of the few level areas on the fairways. 90% of fairway shots at Augusta are either uphill, downhill, or a sidehill lie, and precise approach shots are mandatory due to diabolical hole placements on the green, especially on Sunday.
Anything can happen in four days of golf. Tiger (or anyone else) can play himself out of contention with a bad round on Thursday or Friday, or be right up there with the leaders, and the same can be said of 15 others this year. But the betting odds are consistent with reality right now. There are only three or four people with as good a chance of winning as Tiger.
It will be great for TV ratings if Tiger is in contention on the weekend, and all the golfers want that, so he will have a lot of intangible support from on and off the golf course.