2aguy
Diamond Member
- Jul 19, 2014
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- #81
I know you don't want Kellerman to be real... but how about doing an ACTUAL gun study and record every gun death.
Every suicide. (19500)
Every accident (800)
Every murder (11,000)
Every justifiable homicide (200).
Yeah, Kellerman probably had it about right.
suicide....Japan, Soth Korea, and China all have 2x the suicide rates and zero access to guns and in the United States we have 19,000 people who commit suicide without a gun....
accidental gun deaths in 2013 from the CDC....505....with over 320 million guns in private hands and over 13 million people carrying guns....and the accidental death rate is going down, not up...
Gun murders according to the FBI table 8....8,124, the majority of which are violent career criminals murdering other career criminals, with illegally possessed guns. and this rate is going down, not up.
and with over 320 million guns in private hands, and 13 million people carrying guns each year there are 1.5 million defensive gun uses according to a study commissioned by Bill Clinton through his department of justice....
And in those uses...criminals are only dumb enough to press their attack about 260 times where they have to be shot and killed....since normal gun owners do not want to shoot anyone...
1.5 million dgu (defensive gun uses) per year is over 4000 per day. That's a lot. I've never owned a gun or was in a situation where I wished I had one for defensive purposes. I don't know anybody who has ever used a gun for dgu. Have any of you ever dgu(ed). Do you know anybody who has? A few of the respondents to this survey 2aguy cites reported large numbers of times they used a gun for defensive purposes in the surveyed year. One woman reported 52 dgu! Jesus, is Matt Dillon available? Some of you Yanks (I know I shouldn't use that to include all but...) really still live in the wild west! 52 times in one year that woman needed to use a gun to defend herself. Incredible.
I got that info from this brief by Bill Clinton's DOJ on that study by Bill Clinton's DOJ that 2aguy cites.
U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs National Institute of Justice
I'll quote some more from Bill Clinton's DOJ brief on that study commissioned by Bill Clinton's DOJ that 2aguy cites; (notice that 1 person in this study statistically represents about 79,000 Americans. You do the math.)
"Forty-five respondents reported a defensive gun use in 1994 against a person
(exhibit 7). Given the sampling weights, these respondents constitute 1.6 percent of the sample and represent 3.1 million adults. Almost half of these respondents reported multiple DGUs during 1994, which provides the basis for estimating the 1994 DGU incidence at 23 million. This surprising figure is caused in part by a few respondents reporting large numbers of defensive gun uses during the year; for example, one woman reported 52!"
"A somewhat more conservative NSPOF estimate is shown in the column of exhibit 7 that reflects the application of the criteria used by Kleck and Gertz to identify "genuine" defensive gun uses. Respondents were excluded on the basis of the most recent DGU description for any of the following reasons: the respondent did not see a perpetrator; the respondent could not state a specific crime that was involved in the incident; or the respondent did not actually display the gun or mention it to the perpetrator. Applying those restrictions leaves 19 NSPOF respondents (0.8 percent of the sample), representing 1.5 million defensive users. This estimate is directly comparable to the well-known estimate of Kleck and Gertz, shown in the last column of exhibit 7. While the NSPOF estimate is smaller, it is statistically plausible that the difference is due to sampling error. Inclusion of multiple DGUs reported by half of the 19 NSPOF respondents increases the estimate to 4.7 million DGUs"
"Evidence suggests that this survey and others like it overestimate the frequency with which firearms were used by private citizens to defend against criminal attack."
"Slightly more than half of all privately owned firearms were stored unlocked; 16 percent of firearms were stored unlocked and loaded."
"About 211,000 handguns and 382,000 long guns were stolen in noncommercial thefts in 1994"
"Some troubling comparisons"
. "If the DGU numbers are in the right ballpark, millions of attempted assaults, thefts, and break-ins were foiled by armed citizens during the 12- month period. According to these results, guns are used far more often to defend against crime than to perpetrate crime."
"Thus, it is of considerable interest and importance to check the reasonableness of the NSPOF estimates before embracing them"
"For example, in only a small fraction of rape and robbery attempts do victims use guns in self-defense. It does not make sense, then, that the NSPOF estimate of the number of rapes in which a woman defended herself with a gun was more than the total number of rapes estimated from NCVS (exhibit 8)".
Remember I'm still quoting from Bill Clinton's DOJ brief on the study commissioned by Bill Clinton's DOJ
.
"It traces its origin to a two-decade-old series of surveys that, despite being thoroughly repudiated at the time, persists in influencing personal safety decisions and public policy throughout the United States."
"For other crimes listed in exhibit 8, the results are almost as absurd: the NSPOF estimate of DGU robberies is 36 percent of all NCVS-estimated robberies, while the NSPOF estimate of DGU assaults is 19 percent of all aggravated assaults. If those percentages were close to accurate, crime would be a risky business indeed!"
Whoa! I just went to all this work to point out that there are facts and then there are facts. If somebody quotes something and it inspires a hmmmm....I check it out. I think this study that 2aguy cited is fatally flawed, that's not his fault. He's allowed to use info from a supposedly reliable source, that doesn't make the source reliable. I ran into several sites questioning this study and others designed like it. A study by Kleck and Getz’s similar to the DOJ's and mentioned with-in the brief ended up with 2.5 million DGU.
In ancient times they had no statistics so they had to fall back on lies...
Stephen Leacock
There are lies, damned lies and statistics...
Mark Twain
Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable...
Mark Twain
"Brand new data compiled by the Gun Violence Archive, a non-partisan organization devoted to collecting gun violence data, further confirms Hemenway’s suspicion that Kleck and Getz’s findings are absurd. The archive found that for all of 2014 there were fewer than 1,600 verified defensive guns uses, meaning a police report was filed. This total includes all outcomes and types of defensive uses with a police report—a far cry from the millions that Kleck and Getz estimated."
So why do I think any of this bullshit matters?
"In the early hours of Nov. 2, 2013, in Dearborn Heights, Michigan, a pounding at the door startled Theodore Wafer from his slumber. Unable to find his cell phone to call the police, he grabbed the shotgun he kept loaded in his closet. Wafer opened the door and, spotting a dark figure behind the screen, fired a single blast at the supposed intruder. The shot killed a 19-year-old girl who was knocking to ask for help after a car accident".
"Shortly after midnight on June 5, 2014, two friends left a party briefly. Upon returning they accidently knocked on the wrong door. Believing burglars were breaking in, the frightened homeowner called the police, grabbed his gun and fired a single round, hitting one of the confused party-goers in the chest".
"On Sept. 21, 2014, Eusebio Christian was awakened by a noise. Assuming a break-in, he rushed to the kitchen with his gun and began firing. All his shots missed but one, which struck his wife in the face"
"What do these and so many other cases have in common? They are the byproduct of a tragic myth: that millions of gun owners successfully use their firearms to defend themselves and their families from criminals. Despite having nearly no academic support in public health literature, this myth is the single largest motivation behind gun ownership. It traces its origin to a two-decade-old series of surveys that, despite being thoroughly repudiated at the time, persists in influencing personal safety decisions and public policy throughout the United States."
"The claim has since become gospel for gun advocates and is frequently touted by the National Rifle Association, pro-gun scholars such as John Lott and conservative politicians. The argument typically goes something like this: Guns are used defensively “over 2 million times every year—five times more frequently than the 430,000 times guns were used to commit crimes.”
'And indeed, comparing NCVS results to NCVS results yields a very different picture—that more than 9 times as many people are victimized by guns than protected by them. Respondents in two Harvard surveys had more than 3 times as many offensive gun uses against them as defensive gun uses. Another study focusing on adolescences found 13 times as many offensive gun uses. Yet another study focusing on gun use in the home found that a gun was more than 6 times more likely to be used to intimidate a family member than in a defensive capacity. The evidence is nearly unanimous'.
And for each accident you list…..505 accidental gun deaths in 2013…….out of a country of over 320 million guns in private hands and over 13 million people carrying guns for self defense…..
this is why the issue matters….
From the Armed Citizen website…..
NRA-ILA | Armed Citizen®
GUN LAWS
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2015
Armed gas station employee halts gun-wielding man, Cincinnati.com, Cincinnati, Ohio, 11/21/15, WCPO, Cincinnati, Ohio, 11/20/15
A man entered a Marathon gas station in Cincinnati, Ohio, pulled out a gun and menaced two store employees. One of the employees responded by retrieving a gun and firing at the criminal, striking him ...
GUN LAWS
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2015
Homeowner fights off four intruders, KSAT, San Antonio, Texas 11/15/15
A group of four people attempted to break into a home in San Antonio, Texas by removing an air conditioning unit from a window and crawling inside. The homeowner responded to the break-in by retrieving ...
GUN LAWS
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 2015
Armed homeowner scares off attacker, KTVA, Anchorage, Alaska 11/13/15
A homeowner was in their house in Anchorage, Alaska when they heard a knock at the door. The homeowner retrieved a gun and went to answer the door. Upon opening the door, an intruder pepper-sprayed ...
GUN LAWS
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 2015
Elderly woman scares off home invader, WSVN, Miami, Fla. 11/11/15
88-year-old Arlene Orms was at home alone in Miami, Fla. when an intruder kicked in her door. Orms responded by retrieving a .25-caliber pistol and firing at the home invader, prompting the criminal to flee. ...
GUN LAWS
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 2015
Armed robbers fought off in attempted jewelry store heist, The Winston-Salem Journal, Winston-Salem, N.C. 11/3/15
Three masked robbers entered Long Jewelers in Winston-Salem, N.C., drew guns, and began smashing display cases and collecting jewelry. A worker in the back of the store became aware of the robbery and retrieved a ...
GUN LAWS
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 6, 2015
Store employees fell armed robbers, WFMZ, Allentown, Pa. 11/01/15
A trio of men, at least one of whom was armed with a gun, entered Latino's Meat Market ...
GUN LAWS
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2015
Elderly couple fights off real monsters on Halloween, Helena-Arkansas.com, Helena, Ark. 11/01/15
An elderly couple were at home Halloween night, when the doorbell rang. Prepared to hand out candy to trick-or-treaters, the wife opened the door to find four armed robbers, at least two of whom were ...
GUN LAWS
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2015
New Right-to-Carry permit holder defends himself against armed robbers, FOX 2 Detroit, Detroit, Mich. 10/19/15
A 23-year-old Right-to-Carry permit holder was waiting for a bus after work when a trio of armed men ...
GUN LAWS
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2015
Liquor store employee shoots armed robber, WLKY, Louisville, Ky. 09/28/15
An armed criminal entered Liquor World in Louisville, Ky. and attempted to rob the store. An employee on …
And there are millions of these stories………..
You`ve given me a lot to chew on and like you I have to skedaddle. You`ve rounded`the data from your research to 2,000,000 DGU per year. That`s almost 5,500 per day. Seems impossible, give me some time. I still haven`t gleaned all from the news yet. This is a very strange event. Just saw a report, the reporter was apoplectic over the way the crime scene at the two shooters home was being destroyed by police and others apparently rampaging through it. Never seen a reporter that agitated.
If you notice from the list of self defense encounters I posted from "TheArmedCitizen"....many of them do not end with the criminal being shot....so they would not make the FBI crime stats......no body, no stat.
And if you want to understand normal people using guns for self defense...you should read through the stories at "thearmedcitizen" and gunssavelives.....the nice thing about gunssavelives is that they actually break the stories down by both states...and by weapon used.......these sites give you a real feel for how normal people, with very little, and sometimes no training, actually handle themselves amazingly in the middle of a violent criminal attack...
