why the cdc was stopped from attacking gun ownership....

[JoeB131]

Real background checks would have failed.....they did not have criminal records and you are delusional.

If you can find out that the guy was "radicalized" within ONE DAY of a shooting, you can find out these things BEFORE a shooting.

 

[2aguy]

Real background checks would have failed.....they did not have criminal records and you are delusional.

If you can find out that the guy was "radicalized" within ONE DAY of a shooting, you can find out these things BEFORE a shooting.

Tell that to the FBI, DHS, CIA and obama……..

 

[2aguy]

I know you don't want Kellerman to be real... but how about doing an ACTUAL gun study and record every gun death.

Every suicide. (19500)
Every accident (800)
Every murder (11,000)
Every justifiable homicide (200).


Yeah, Kellerman probably had it about right.

suicide....Japan, Soth Korea, and China all have 2x the suicide rates and zero access to guns and in the United States we have 19,000 people who commit suicide without a gun....

accidental gun deaths in 2013 from the CDC....505....with over 320 million guns in private hands and over 13 million people carrying guns....and the accidental death rate is going down, not up...

Gun murders according to the FBI table 8....8,124, the majority of which are violent career criminals murdering other career criminals, with illegally possessed guns. and this rate is going down, not up.

and with over 320 million guns in private hands, and 13 million people carrying guns each year there are 1.5 million defensive gun uses according to a study commissioned by Bill Clinton through his department of justice....

And in those uses...criminals are only dumb enough to press their attack about 260 times where they have to be shot and killed....since normal gun owners do not want to shoot anyone...

1.5 million dgu (defensive gun uses) per year is over 4000 per day. That's a lot. I've never owned a gun or was in a situation where I wished I had one for defensive purposes. I don't know anybody who has ever used a gun for dgu. Have any of you ever dgu(ed). Do you know anybody who has? A few of the respondents to this survey 2aguy cites reported large numbers of times they used a gun for defensive purposes in the surveyed year. One woman reported 52 dgu! Jesus, is Matt Dillon available? Some of you Yanks (I know I shouldn't use that to include all but...) really still live in the wild west! 52 times in one year that woman needed to use a gun to defend herself. Incredible.

I got that info from this brief by Bill Clinton's DOJ on that study by Bill Clinton's DOJ that 2aguy cites.

U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs National Institute of Justice

I'll quote some more from Bill Clinton's DOJ brief on that study commissioned by Bill Clinton's DOJ that 2aguy cites; (notice that 1 person in this study statistically represents about 79,000 Americans. You do the math.)

"Forty-five respondents reported a defensive gun use in 1994 against a person
(exhibit 7). Given the sampling weights, these respondents constitute 1.6 percent of the sample and represent 3.1 million adults. Almost half of these respondents reported multiple DGUs during 1994, which provides the basis for estimating the 1994 DGU incidence at 23 million. This surprising figure is caused in part by a few respondents reporting large numbers of defensive gun uses during the year; for example, one woman reported 52!"

"A somewhat more conservative NSPOF estimate is shown in the column of exhibit 7 that reflects the application of the criteria used by Kleck and Gertz to identify "genuine" defensive gun uses. Respondents were excluded on the basis of the most recent DGU description for any of the following reasons: the respondent did not see a perpetrator; the respondent could not state a specific crime that was involved in the incident; or the respondent did not actually display the gun or mention it to the perpetrator. Applying those restrictions leaves 19 NSPOF respondents (0.8 percent of the sample), representing 1.5 million defensive users. This estimate is directly comparable to the well-known estimate of Kleck and Gertz, shown in the last column of exhibit 7. While the NSPOF estimate is smaller, it is statistically plausible that the difference is due to sampling error. Inclusion of multiple DGUs reported by half of the 19 NSPOF respondents increases the estimate to 4.7 million DGUs"

"Evidence suggests that this survey and others like it overestimate the frequency with which firearms were used by private citizens to defend against criminal attack."

"Slightly more than half of all privately owned firearms were stored unlocked; 16 percent of firearms were stored unlocked and loaded."

"About 211,000 handguns and 382,000 long guns were stolen in noncommercial thefts in 1994"


"Some troubling comparisons"
. "If the DGU numbers are in the right ballpark, millions of attempted assaults, thefts, and break-ins were foiled by armed citizens during the 12- month period. According to these results, guns are used far more often to defend against crime than to perpetrate crime."

"Thus, it is of considerable interest and importance to check the reasonableness of the NSPOF estimates before embracing them"

"For example, in only a small fraction of rape and robbery attempts do victims use guns in self-defense. It does not make sense, then, that the NSPOF estimate of the number of rapes in which a woman defended herself with a gun was more than the total number of rapes estimated from NCVS (exhibit 8)".

Remember I'm still quoting from Bill Clinton's DOJ brief on the study commissioned by Bill Clinton's DOJ
.
"It traces its origin to a two-decade-old series of surveys that, despite being thoroughly repudiated at the time, persists in influencing personal safety decisions and public policy throughout the United States."

"For other crimes listed in exhibit 8, the results are almost as absurd: the NSPOF estimate of DGU robberies is 36 percent of all NCVS-estimated robberies, while the NSPOF estimate of DGU assaults is 19 percent of all aggravated assaults. If those percentages were close to accurate, crime would be a risky business indeed!"

Whoa! I just went to all this work to point out that there are facts and then there are facts. If somebody quotes something and it inspires a hmmmm....I check it out. I think this study that 2aguy cited is fatally flawed, that's not his fault. He's allowed to use info from a supposedly reliable source, that doesn't make the source reliable. I ran into several sites questioning this study and others designed like it. A study by Kleck and Getz’s similar to the DOJ's and mentioned with-in the brief ended up with 2.5 million DGU.

In ancient times they had no statistics so they had to fall back on lies...
Stephen Leacock
There are lies, damned lies and statistics...
Mark Twain
Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable...
Mark Twain

"Brand new data compiled by the Gun Violence Archive, a non-partisan organization devoted to collecting gun violence data, further confirms Hemenway’s suspicion that Kleck and Getz’s findings are absurd. The archive found that for all of 2014 there were fewer than 1,600 verified defensive guns uses, meaning a police report was filed. This total includes all outcomes and types of defensive uses with a police report—a far cry from the millions that Kleck and Getz estimated."

So why do I think any of this bullshit matters?

"In the early hours of Nov. 2, 2013, in Dearborn Heights, Michigan, a pounding at the door startled Theodore Wafer from his slumber. Unable to find his cell phone to call the police, he grabbed the shotgun he kept loaded in his closet. Wafer opened the door and, spotting a dark figure behind the screen, fired a single blast at the supposed intruder. The shot killed a 19-year-old girl who was knocking to ask for help after a car accident".

"Shortly after midnight on June 5, 2014, two friends left a party briefly. Upon returning they accidently knocked on the wrong door. Believing burglars were breaking in, the frightened homeowner called the police, grabbed his gun and fired a single round, hitting one of the confused party-goers in the chest".

"On Sept. 21, 2014, Eusebio Christian was awakened by a noise. Assuming a break-in, he rushed to the kitchen with his gun and began firing. All his shots missed but one, which struck his wife in the face"

"What do these and so many other cases have in common? They are the byproduct of a tragic myth: that millions of gun owners successfully use their firearms to defend themselves and their families from criminals. Despite having nearly no academic support in public health literature, this myth is the single largest motivation behind gun ownership. It traces its origin to a two-decade-old series of surveys that, despite being thoroughly repudiated at the time, persists in influencing personal safety decisions and public policy throughout the United States."

"The claim has since become gospel for gun advocates and is frequently touted by the National Rifle Association, pro-gun scholars such as John Lott and conservative politicians. The argument typically goes something like this: Guns are used defensively “over 2 million times every year—five times more frequently than the 430,000 times guns were used to commit crimes.”

'And indeed, comparing NCVS results to NCVS results yields a very different picture—that more than 9 times as many people are victimized by guns than protected by them. Respondents in two Harvard surveys had more than 3 times as many offensive gun uses against them as defensive gun uses. Another study focusing on adolescences found 13 times as many offensive gun uses. Yet another study focusing on gun use in the home found that a gun was more than 6 times more likely to be used to intimidate a family member than in a defensive capacity. The evidence is nearly unanimous'.

As to some of your points…hemenway is not a reliable source…he relies solely on the National Crime Victimization Survey for all of his numbers…..the thing is, the NCVS is not a defensive gun use study. In fact, the NCVS does not use the word gun or specifically ask about defensive gun uses at all….you have to answer several questions…in front of an agent of the federal government about a crime you were a victim of….

There is also this…

"Brand new data compiled by the Gun Violence Archive, a non-partisan organization devoted to collecting gun violence data, further confirms Hemenway’s suspicion that Kleck and Getz’s findings are absurd. The archive found that for all of 2014 there were fewer than 1,600 verified defensive guns uses, meaning a police report was filed. This total includes all outcomes and types of defensive uses with a police report—a far cry from the millions that Kleck and Getz estimated."

Most defensive gun uses do not require firing a shot, and the criminal runs away….so no police reports are ever filed….so when they say there were only 1600 police reports that has no bearing on how many times a citizen used a gun to stop a violent crime, but drove off the attacker without filing a report….which is another way those who are anti gun fudge the numbers.

And keep in mind…I listed more than Kleck and Gertz's numbers….and even the Clinton Department of Justice Study confirms a 1.5 million defensive uses….and then the two researchers use the rest of their report denying the number they found…even though they created and executed the study.

 

[2aguy]

I know you don't want Kellerman to be real... but how about doing an ACTUAL gun study and record every gun death.

Every suicide. (19500)
Every accident (800)
Every murder (11,000)
Every justifiable homicide (200).


Yeah, Kellerman probably had it about right.

suicide....Japan, Soth Korea, and China all have 2x the suicide rates and zero access to guns and in the United States we have 19,000 people who commit suicide without a gun....

accidental gun deaths in 2013 from the CDC....505....with over 320 million guns in private hands and over 13 million people carrying guns....and the accidental death rate is going down, not up...

Gun murders according to the FBI table 8....8,124, the majority of which are violent career criminals murdering other career criminals, with illegally possessed guns. and this rate is going down, not up.

and with over 320 million guns in private hands, and 13 million people carrying guns each year there are 1.5 million defensive gun uses according to a study commissioned by Bill Clinton through his department of justice....

And in those uses...criminals are only dumb enough to press their attack about 260 times where they have to be shot and killed....since normal gun owners do not want to shoot anyone...

1.5 million dgu (defensive gun uses) per year is over 4000 per day. That's a lot. I've never owned a gun or was in a situation where I wished I had one for defensive purposes. I don't know anybody who has ever used a gun for dgu. Have any of you ever dgu(ed). Do you know anybody who has? A few of the respondents to this survey 2aguy cites reported large numbers of times they used a gun for defensive purposes in the surveyed year. One woman reported 52 dgu! Jesus, is Matt Dillon available? Some of you Yanks (I know I shouldn't use that to include all but...) really still live in the wild west! 52 times in one year that woman needed to use a gun to defend herself. Incredible.

I got that info from this brief by Bill Clinton's DOJ on that study by Bill Clinton's DOJ that 2aguy cites.

U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs National Institute of Justice

I'll quote some more from Bill Clinton's DOJ brief on that study commissioned by Bill Clinton's DOJ that 2aguy cites; (notice that 1 person in this study statistically represents about 79,000 Americans. You do the math.)

"Forty-five respondents reported a defensive gun use in 1994 against a person
(exhibit 7). Given the sampling weights, these respondents constitute 1.6 percent of the sample and represent 3.1 million adults. Almost half of these respondents reported multiple DGUs during 1994, which provides the basis for estimating the 1994 DGU incidence at 23 million. This surprising figure is caused in part by a few respondents reporting large numbers of defensive gun uses during the year; for example, one woman reported 52!"

"A somewhat more conservative NSPOF estimate is shown in the column of exhibit 7 that reflects the application of the criteria used by Kleck and Gertz to identify "genuine" defensive gun uses. Respondents were excluded on the basis of the most recent DGU description for any of the following reasons: the respondent did not see a perpetrator; the respondent could not state a specific crime that was involved in the incident; or the respondent did not actually display the gun or mention it to the perpetrator. Applying those restrictions leaves 19 NSPOF respondents (0.8 percent of the sample), representing 1.5 million defensive users. This estimate is directly comparable to the well-known estimate of Kleck and Gertz, shown in the last column of exhibit 7. While the NSPOF estimate is smaller, it is statistically plausible that the difference is due to sampling error. Inclusion of multiple DGUs reported by half of the 19 NSPOF respondents increases the estimate to 4.7 million DGUs"

"Evidence suggests that this survey and others like it overestimate the frequency with which firearms were used by private citizens to defend against criminal attack."

"Slightly more than half of all privately owned firearms were stored unlocked; 16 percent of firearms were stored unlocked and loaded."

"About 211,000 handguns and 382,000 long guns were stolen in noncommercial thefts in 1994"


"Some troubling comparisons"
. "If the DGU numbers are in the right ballpark, millions of attempted assaults, thefts, and break-ins were foiled by armed citizens during the 12- month period. According to these results, guns are used far more often to defend against crime than to perpetrate crime."

"Thus, it is of considerable interest and importance to check the reasonableness of the NSPOF estimates before embracing them"

"For example, in only a small fraction of rape and robbery attempts do victims use guns in self-defense. It does not make sense, then, that the NSPOF estimate of the number of rapes in which a woman defended herself with a gun was more than the total number of rapes estimated from NCVS (exhibit 8)".

Remember I'm still quoting from Bill Clinton's DOJ brief on the study commissioned by Bill Clinton's DOJ
.
"It traces its origin to a two-decade-old series of surveys that, despite being thoroughly repudiated at the time, persists in influencing personal safety decisions and public policy throughout the United States."

"For other crimes listed in exhibit 8, the results are almost as absurd: the NSPOF estimate of DGU robberies is 36 percent of all NCVS-estimated robberies, while the NSPOF estimate of DGU assaults is 19 percent of all aggravated assaults. If those percentages were close to accurate, crime would be a risky business indeed!"

Whoa! I just went to all this work to point out that there are facts and then there are facts. If somebody quotes something and it inspires a hmmmm....I check it out. I think this study that 2aguy cited is fatally flawed, that's not his fault. He's allowed to use info from a supposedly reliable source, that doesn't make the source reliable. I ran into several sites questioning this study and others designed like it. A study by Kleck and Getz’s similar to the DOJ's and mentioned with-in the brief ended up with 2.5 million DGU.

In ancient times they had no statistics so they had to fall back on lies...
Stephen Leacock
There are lies, damned lies and statistics...
Mark Twain
Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable...
Mark Twain

"Brand new data compiled by the Gun Violence Archive, a non-partisan organization devoted to collecting gun violence data, further confirms Hemenway’s suspicion that Kleck and Getz’s findings are absurd. The archive found that for all of 2014 there were fewer than 1,600 verified defensive guns uses, meaning a police report was filed. This total includes all outcomes and types of defensive uses with a police report—a far cry from the millions that Kleck and Getz estimated."

So why do I think any of this bullshit matters?

"In the early hours of Nov. 2, 2013, in Dearborn Heights, Michigan, a pounding at the door startled Theodore Wafer from his slumber. Unable to find his cell phone to call the police, he grabbed the shotgun he kept loaded in his closet. Wafer opened the door and, spotting a dark figure behind the screen, fired a single blast at the supposed intruder. The shot killed a 19-year-old girl who was knocking to ask for help after a car accident".

"Shortly after midnight on June 5, 2014, two friends left a party briefly. Upon returning they accidently knocked on the wrong door. Believing burglars were breaking in, the frightened homeowner called the police, grabbed his gun and fired a single round, hitting one of the confused party-goers in the chest".

"On Sept. 21, 2014, Eusebio Christian was awakened by a noise. Assuming a break-in, he rushed to the kitchen with his gun and began firing. All his shots missed but one, which struck his wife in the face"

"What do these and so many other cases have in common? They are the byproduct of a tragic myth: that millions of gun owners successfully use their firearms to defend themselves and their families from criminals. Despite having nearly no academic support in public health literature, this myth is the single largest motivation behind gun ownership. It traces its origin to a two-decade-old series of surveys that, despite being thoroughly repudiated at the time, persists in influencing personal safety decisions and public policy throughout the United States."

"The claim has since become gospel for gun advocates and is frequently touted by the National Rifle Association, pro-gun scholars such as John Lott and conservative politicians. The argument typically goes something like this: Guns are used defensively “over 2 million times every year—five times more frequently than the 430,000 times guns were used to commit crimes.”

'And indeed, comparing NCVS results to NCVS results yields a very different picture—that more than 9 times as many people are victimized by guns than protected by them. Respondents in two Harvard surveys had more than 3 times as many offensive gun uses against them as defensive gun uses. Another study focusing on adolescences found 13 times as many offensive gun uses. Yet another study focusing on gun use in the home found that a gun was more than 6 times more likely to be used to intimidate a family member than in a defensive capacity. The evidence is nearly unanimous'.

And these are reasons why the National Crime Victimization Survey….the one survey that puts defensive gun uses at a very low number…vs. all of the other gun self defense studies….is the only research anti gunners use…..even though again, it is not a defensive gun use study….and never asks any questions about using a gun for self defense…

The Daily Kos on why the NCVS is wrong...
Defensive Gun Use Part III - The National Crime Victimization Study

The disadvantages of this study design are:
1) the study is not specifically designed to measure DGUs;

2) the study does not track every type of crime;

3) the study does not ask every interviewee about episodes of DGU;

4) interviewees are not specifically asked about defending themselves with a gun;

5) follow-up studies have demonstrated that the incidence of assault (and especially assaults by relatives and non-strangers) in the NCVS is under-reported, and if crime is under-reported then so too will DGUs be under-reported;

6) respondents’ anonymity is not preserved, and some interviewees may therefore feel wary or unwilling to discuss gun use with federal government employees.

 

[2aguy]

I know you don't want Kellerman to be real... but how about doing an ACTUAL gun study and record every gun death.

Every suicide. (19500)
Every accident (800)
Every murder (11,000)
Every justifiable homicide (200).


Yeah, Kellerman probably had it about right.

suicide....Japan, Soth Korea, and China all have 2x the suicide rates and zero access to guns and in the United States we have 19,000 people who commit suicide without a gun....

accidental gun deaths in 2013 from the CDC....505....with over 320 million guns in private hands and over 13 million people carrying guns....and the accidental death rate is going down, not up...

Gun murders according to the FBI table 8....8,124, the majority of which are violent career criminals murdering other career criminals, with illegally possessed guns. and this rate is going down, not up.

and with over 320 million guns in private hands, and 13 million people carrying guns each year there are 1.5 million defensive gun uses according to a study commissioned by Bill Clinton through his department of justice....

And in those uses...criminals are only dumb enough to press their attack about 260 times where they have to be shot and killed....since normal gun owners do not want to shoot anyone...

1.5 million dgu (defensive gun uses) per year is over 4000 per day. That's a lot. I've never owned a gun or was in a situation where I wished I had one for defensive purposes. I don't know anybody who has ever used a gun for dgu. Have any of you ever dgu(ed). Do you know anybody who has? A few of the respondents to this survey 2aguy cites reported large numbers of times they used a gun for defensive purposes in the surveyed year. One woman reported 52 dgu! Jesus, is Matt Dillon available? Some of you Yanks (I know I shouldn't use that to include all but...) really still live in the wild west! 52 times in one year that woman needed to use a gun to defend herself. Incredible.

I got that info from this brief by Bill Clinton's DOJ on that study by Bill Clinton's DOJ that 2aguy cites.

U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs National Institute of Justice

I'll quote some more from Bill Clinton's DOJ brief on that study commissioned by Bill Clinton's DOJ that 2aguy cites; (notice that 1 person in this study statistically represents about 79,000 Americans. You do the math.)

"Forty-five respondents reported a defensive gun use in 1994 against a person
(exhibit 7). Given the sampling weights, these respondents constitute 1.6 percent of the sample and represent 3.1 million adults. Almost half of these respondents reported multiple DGUs during 1994, which provides the basis for estimating the 1994 DGU incidence at 23 million. This surprising figure is caused in part by a few respondents reporting large numbers of defensive gun uses during the year; for example, one woman reported 52!"

"A somewhat more conservative NSPOF estimate is shown in the column of exhibit 7 that reflects the application of the criteria used by Kleck and Gertz to identify "genuine" defensive gun uses. Respondents were excluded on the basis of the most recent DGU description for any of the following reasons: the respondent did not see a perpetrator; the respondent could not state a specific crime that was involved in the incident; or the respondent did not actually display the gun or mention it to the perpetrator. Applying those restrictions leaves 19 NSPOF respondents (0.8 percent of the sample), representing 1.5 million defensive users. This estimate is directly comparable to the well-known estimate of Kleck and Gertz, shown in the last column of exhibit 7. While the NSPOF estimate is smaller, it is statistically plausible that the difference is due to sampling error. Inclusion of multiple DGUs reported by half of the 19 NSPOF respondents increases the estimate to 4.7 million DGUs"

"Evidence suggests that this survey and others like it overestimate the frequency with which firearms were used by private citizens to defend against criminal attack."

"Slightly more than half of all privately owned firearms were stored unlocked; 16 percent of firearms were stored unlocked and loaded."

"About 211,000 handguns and 382,000 long guns were stolen in noncommercial thefts in 1994"


"Some troubling comparisons"
. "If the DGU numbers are in the right ballpark, millions of attempted assaults, thefts, and break-ins were foiled by armed citizens during the 12- month period. According to these results, guns are used far more often to defend against crime than to perpetrate crime."

"Thus, it is of considerable interest and importance to check the reasonableness of the NSPOF estimates before embracing them"

"For example, in only a small fraction of rape and robbery attempts do victims use guns in self-defense. It does not make sense, then, that the NSPOF estimate of the number of rapes in which a woman defended herself with a gun was more than the total number of rapes estimated from NCVS (exhibit 8)".

Remember I'm still quoting from Bill Clinton's DOJ brief on the study commissioned by Bill Clinton's DOJ
.
"It traces its origin to a two-decade-old series of surveys that, despite being thoroughly repudiated at the time, persists in influencing personal safety decisions and public policy throughout the United States."

"For other crimes listed in exhibit 8, the results are almost as absurd: the NSPOF estimate of DGU robberies is 36 percent of all NCVS-estimated robberies, while the NSPOF estimate of DGU assaults is 19 percent of all aggravated assaults. If those percentages were close to accurate, crime would be a risky business indeed!"

Whoa! I just went to all this work to point out that there are facts and then there are facts. If somebody quotes something and it inspires a hmmmm....I check it out. I think this study that 2aguy cited is fatally flawed, that's not his fault. He's allowed to use info from a supposedly reliable source, that doesn't make the source reliable. I ran into several sites questioning this study and others designed like it. A study by Kleck and Getz’s similar to the DOJ's and mentioned with-in the brief ended up with 2.5 million DGU.

In ancient times they had no statistics so they had to fall back on lies...
Stephen Leacock
There are lies, damned lies and statistics...
Mark Twain
Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable...
Mark Twain

"Brand new data compiled by the Gun Violence Archive, a non-partisan organization devoted to collecting gun violence data, further confirms Hemenway’s suspicion that Kleck and Getz’s findings are absurd. The archive found that for all of 2014 there were fewer than 1,600 verified defensive guns uses, meaning a police report was filed. This total includes all outcomes and types of defensive uses with a police report—a far cry from the millions that Kleck and Getz estimated."

So why do I think any of this bullshit matters?

"In the early hours of Nov. 2, 2013, in Dearborn Heights, Michigan, a pounding at the door startled Theodore Wafer from his slumber. Unable to find his cell phone to call the police, he grabbed the shotgun he kept loaded in his closet. Wafer opened the door and, spotting a dark figure behind the screen, fired a single blast at the supposed intruder. The shot killed a 19-year-old girl who was knocking to ask for help after a car accident".

"Shortly after midnight on June 5, 2014, two friends left a party briefly. Upon returning they accidently knocked on the wrong door. Believing burglars were breaking in, the frightened homeowner called the police, grabbed his gun and fired a single round, hitting one of the confused party-goers in the chest".

"On Sept. 21, 2014, Eusebio Christian was awakened by a noise. Assuming a break-in, he rushed to the kitchen with his gun and began firing. All his shots missed but one, which struck his wife in the face"

"What do these and so many other cases have in common? They are the byproduct of a tragic myth: that millions of gun owners successfully use their firearms to defend themselves and their families from criminals. Despite having nearly no academic support in public health literature, this myth is the single largest motivation behind gun ownership. It traces its origin to a two-decade-old series of surveys that, despite being thoroughly repudiated at the time, persists in influencing personal safety decisions and public policy throughout the United States."

"The claim has since become gospel for gun advocates and is frequently touted by the National Rifle Association, pro-gun scholars such as John Lott and conservative politicians. The argument typically goes something like this: Guns are used defensively “over 2 million times every year—five times more frequently than the 430,000 times guns were used to commit crimes.”

'And indeed, comparing NCVS results to NCVS results yields a very different picture—that more than 9 times as many people are victimized by guns than protected by them. Respondents in two Harvard surveys had more than 3 times as many offensive gun uses against them as defensive gun uses. Another study focusing on adolescences found 13 times as many offensive gun uses. Yet another study focusing on gun use in the home found that a gun was more than 6 times more likely to be used to intimidate a family member than in a defensive capacity. The evidence is nearly unanimous'.

And this is the thing……the Kleck and Clinton studies aren't the only studies done on this topic…..and keep in mind they both come out with high numbers…..even the clinton study which is why the two researchers who did it end up trashing their own work……here is what I usually list to show the depth of research…

I just averaged the studies......which were conducted by different researchers, from both private and public researchers, over a period of 40 years looking specifically at guns and self defense....the name of the researcher is first, then the year then the number of times they determined guns were used for self defense......notice how many of them there are and how many of them were done by gun grabbers like the clinton Justice Dept. and the obama CDC

And these aren't all of the studies either...there are more...and they support the ones below.....

A quick guide to the studies and the numbers.....the full lay out of what was studied by each study is in the links....
GunCite-Gun Control-How Often Are Guns Used in Self-Defense

GunCite Frequency of Defensive Gun Use in Previous Surveys

Field...1976....3,052,717 ( no cops, military)
DMIa 1978...2,141,512 ( no cops, military)
L.A. TIMES...1994...3,609,68 ( no cops, military)
Kleck......1994...2.5 million ( no cops, military)

Obama's CDC....2013....500,000--3million

--------------------


Bordua...1977...1,414,544

DMIb...1978...1,098,409 ( no cops, military)

Hart...1981...1.797,461 ( no cops, military)

Mauser...1990...1,487,342 ( no cops, military)

Gallup...1993...1,621,377 ( no cops, military)

DEPT. OF JUSTICE...1994...1.5 million

Journal of Quantitative Criminology--- 989,883 times per year."
(Based on survey data from a 2000 study published in the Journal of Quantitative Criminology,[17] U.S. civilians use guns to defend themselves and others from crime at least 989,883 times per year.[18])

Paper: "Measuring Civilian Defensive Firearm Use: A Methodological Experiment." By David McDowall and others. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, March 2000. Measuring Civilian Defensive Firearm Use: A Methodological Experiment - Springer


-------------------------------------------

Ohio...1982...771,043

Gallup...1991...777,152

Tarrance... 1994... 764,036 (no cops, military)

Lawerence Southwich Jr. 400,000 fewer violent crimes and at least 800,000 violent crimes deterred..
*****************************************
If you take the studies from that Kleck cites in his paper, 16 of them....and you only average the ones that exclude military and police shootings..the average becomes 2 million...I use those studies because I have the details on them...and they are still 10 studies (including Kleck's)....

 

[2aguy]

Wow....this is fun......


You declare a public space a gun free zone......and people are murdered by a mass shooter with a gun........you go to prison......right?

No, you gun nuts are the problem. When you make it easy for the two nuts yesterday to get guns, YOU ARE THE PROBLEM.

Not the fact that we didn't have heavily armed retards at this school yesterday.

California has all the gun control laws that you guys want…magazine limits…..assault weapon bans….limits on the type of hand guns you can have….background checks…..everything….and these people passed all of them….

Except one….

only the law abiding people obeyed the law on not bringing guns into gun free zones…..all of the people at that party obeyed the gun free zone laws……except for the mass shooters….they broke that law…….

And gun control worked like a charm…not one of those law abiding, normal people had a gun in the gun free zone……congratulations on the success of your law….

And congratulations to you for your argument that guns need to be freely available for self-defence...except for the inconvenient fact that that means they're also freely available to murderous lunatics.

Nope…it is against the law for criminals to own or carry guns…if they are caught with them the can be locked up on the spot…….until a lefty judge let's them go which is why we have so much gun crime in the states.

 

[2aguy]

"If the DGU numbers are in the right ballpark, millions of attempted assaults, thefts, and break-ins were foiled by armed citizens during the 12- month period. According to these results, guns are used far more often to defend against crime than to perpetrate crime."

If you look at the studies that actually interview criminals behind bars, this is true…..most criminals don't use guns…..

Here you are for example…

Criminals Fear The Armed.... Don't Be A VICTIM!

Through in-depth interviews with 1,874 imprisoned felons conducted between August, 1982, and January, 1983, the government-funded researchers delved into the deep-seated attitudes of criminals on the questions of weapons choice, deterrence, attitudes toward “gun control,” criminal history, and firearms acquisition. The prisoners, studied under a grant from the National Institute of Justice of the U.S. Justice Department, were incarcerated in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nevada and Oklahoma.

------------

In states with widespread gun ownership and tough punishment for gun misuse, criminals surveyed were often unarmed: 54% in Oklahoma, 62% in Georgia, 40% in Maryland, 43% in Missouri, and 35% in Florida. In Massachusetts, however, only 29% of the felon-respondents were unarmed. In that state, it is difficult lawfully to acquire a firearm, and the illegal carrying of a firearm, rather than the criminal misuse of a gun, is subject to the mandatory penalty. The survey data indicate that the criminals’ fear of an armed victim relates directly to the severity of the gun laws in the state surveyed. Where gun laws are less restrictive, such as Georgia and Maryland, criminals think twice before running the risk of facing an armed victim; they are much less concerned in Massachusetts.



Also this...it gives more percentages on criminals avoiding people they think are armed....

http://www.leg.state.co.us/clics/cl...72579b80079912d/$FILE/SenState0305AttachB.pdf

 

[2aguy]

And to this point…

"For example, in only a small fraction of rape and robbery attempts do victims use guns in self-defense. It does not make sense, then, that the NSPOF estimate of the number of rapes in which a woman defended herself with a gun was more than the total number of rapes estimated from NCVS (exhibit 8)".

The major problem with the NCVS…is that it doesn't actually do a good job at documenting crime……..

 

[2aguy]

I know you don't want Kellerman to be real... but how about doing an ACTUAL gun study and record every gun death.

Every suicide. (19500)
Every accident (800)
Every murder (11,000)
Every justifiable homicide (200).


Yeah, Kellerman probably had it about right.

suicide....Japan, Soth Korea, and China all have 2x the suicide rates and zero access to guns and in the United States we have 19,000 people who commit suicide without a gun....

accidental gun deaths in 2013 from the CDC....505....with over 320 million guns in private hands and over 13 million people carrying guns....and the accidental death rate is going down, not up...

Gun murders according to the FBI table 8....8,124, the majority of which are violent career criminals murdering other career criminals, with illegally possessed guns. and this rate is going down, not up.

and with over 320 million guns in private hands, and 13 million people carrying guns each year there are 1.5 million defensive gun uses according to a study commissioned by Bill Clinton through his department of justice....

And in those uses...criminals are only dumb enough to press their attack about 260 times where they have to be shot and killed....since normal gun owners do not want to shoot anyone...

1.5 million dgu (defensive gun uses) per year is over 4000 per day. That's a lot. I've never owned a gun or was in a situation where I wished I had one for defensive purposes. I don't know anybody who has ever used a gun for dgu. Have any of you ever dgu(ed). Do you know anybody who has? A few of the respondents to this survey 2aguy cites reported large numbers of times they used a gun for defensive purposes in the surveyed year. One woman reported 52 dgu! Jesus, is Matt Dillon available? Some of you Yanks (I know I shouldn't use that to include all but...) really still live in the wild west! 52 times in one year that woman needed to use a gun to defend herself. Incredible.

I got that info from this brief by Bill Clinton's DOJ on that study by Bill Clinton's DOJ that 2aguy cites.

U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs National Institute of Justice

I'll quote some more from Bill Clinton's DOJ brief on that study commissioned by Bill Clinton's DOJ that 2aguy cites; (notice that 1 person in this study statistically represents about 79,000 Americans. You do the math.)

"Forty-five respondents reported a defensive gun use in 1994 against a person
(exhibit 7). Given the sampling weights, these respondents constitute 1.6 percent of the sample and represent 3.1 million adults. Almost half of these respondents reported multiple DGUs during 1994, which provides the basis for estimating the 1994 DGU incidence at 23 million. This surprising figure is caused in part by a few respondents reporting large numbers of defensive gun uses during the year; for example, one woman reported 52!"

"A somewhat more conservative NSPOF estimate is shown in the column of exhibit 7 that reflects the application of the criteria used by Kleck and Gertz to identify "genuine" defensive gun uses. Respondents were excluded on the basis of the most recent DGU description for any of the following reasons: the respondent did not see a perpetrator; the respondent could not state a specific crime that was involved in the incident; or the respondent did not actually display the gun or mention it to the perpetrator. Applying those restrictions leaves 19 NSPOF respondents (0.8 percent of the sample), representing 1.5 million defensive users. This estimate is directly comparable to the well-known estimate of Kleck and Gertz, shown in the last column of exhibit 7. While the NSPOF estimate is smaller, it is statistically plausible that the difference is due to sampling error. Inclusion of multiple DGUs reported by half of the 19 NSPOF respondents increases the estimate to 4.7 million DGUs"

"Evidence suggests that this survey and others like it overestimate the frequency with which firearms were used by private citizens to defend against criminal attack."

"Slightly more than half of all privately owned firearms were stored unlocked; 16 percent of firearms were stored unlocked and loaded."

"About 211,000 handguns and 382,000 long guns were stolen in noncommercial thefts in 1994"


"Some troubling comparisons"
. "If the DGU numbers are in the right ballpark, millions of attempted assaults, thefts, and break-ins were foiled by armed citizens during the 12- month period. According to these results, guns are used far more often to defend against crime than to perpetrate crime."

"Thus, it is of considerable interest and importance to check the reasonableness of the NSPOF estimates before embracing them"

"For example, in only a small fraction of rape and robbery attempts do victims use guns in self-defense. It does not make sense, then, that the NSPOF estimate of the number of rapes in which a woman defended herself with a gun was more than the total number of rapes estimated from NCVS (exhibit 8)".

Remember I'm still quoting from Bill Clinton's DOJ brief on the study commissioned by Bill Clinton's DOJ
.
"It traces its origin to a two-decade-old series of surveys that, despite being thoroughly repudiated at the time, persists in influencing personal safety decisions and public policy throughout the United States."

"For other crimes listed in exhibit 8, the results are almost as absurd: the NSPOF estimate of DGU robberies is 36 percent of all NCVS-estimated robberies, while the NSPOF estimate of DGU assaults is 19 percent of all aggravated assaults. If those percentages were close to accurate, crime would be a risky business indeed!"

Whoa! I just went to all this work to point out that there are facts and then there are facts. If somebody quotes something and it inspires a hmmmm....I check it out. I think this study that 2aguy cited is fatally flawed, that's not his fault. He's allowed to use info from a supposedly reliable source, that doesn't make the source reliable. I ran into several sites questioning this study and others designed like it. A study by Kleck and Getz’s similar to the DOJ's and mentioned with-in the brief ended up with 2.5 million DGU.

In ancient times they had no statistics so they had to fall back on lies...
Stephen Leacock
There are lies, damned lies and statistics...
Mark Twain
Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable...
Mark Twain

"Brand new data compiled by the Gun Violence Archive, a non-partisan organization devoted to collecting gun violence data, further confirms Hemenway’s suspicion that Kleck and Getz’s findings are absurd. The archive found that for all of 2014 there were fewer than 1,600 verified defensive guns uses, meaning a police report was filed. This total includes all outcomes and types of defensive uses with a police report—a far cry from the millions that Kleck and Getz estimated."

So why do I think any of this bullshit matters?

"In the early hours of Nov. 2, 2013, in Dearborn Heights, Michigan, a pounding at the door startled Theodore Wafer from his slumber. Unable to find his cell phone to call the police, he grabbed the shotgun he kept loaded in his closet. Wafer opened the door and, spotting a dark figure behind the screen, fired a single blast at the supposed intruder. The shot killed a 19-year-old girl who was knocking to ask for help after a car accident".

"Shortly after midnight on June 5, 2014, two friends left a party briefly. Upon returning they accidently knocked on the wrong door. Believing burglars were breaking in, the frightened homeowner called the police, grabbed his gun and fired a single round, hitting one of the confused party-goers in the chest".

"On Sept. 21, 2014, Eusebio Christian was awakened by a noise. Assuming a break-in, he rushed to the kitchen with his gun and began firing. All his shots missed but one, which struck his wife in the face"

"What do these and so many other cases have in common? They are the byproduct of a tragic myth: that millions of gun owners successfully use their firearms to defend themselves and their families from criminals. Despite having nearly no academic support in public health literature, this myth is the single largest motivation behind gun ownership. It traces its origin to a two-decade-old series of surveys that, despite being thoroughly repudiated at the time, persists in influencing personal safety decisions and public policy throughout the United States."

"The claim has since become gospel for gun advocates and is frequently touted by the National Rifle Association, pro-gun scholars such as John Lott and conservative politicians. The argument typically goes something like this: Guns are used defensively “over 2 million times every year—five times more frequently than the 430,000 times guns were used to commit crimes.”

'And indeed, comparing NCVS results to NCVS results yields a very different picture—that more than 9 times as many people are victimized by guns than protected by them. Respondents in two Harvard surveys had more than 3 times as many offensive gun uses against them as defensive gun uses. Another study focusing on adolescences found 13 times as many offensive gun uses. Yet another study focusing on gun use in the home found that a gun was more than 6 times more likely to be used to intimidate a family member than in a defensive capacity. The evidence is nearly unanimous'.

Sorry I have to blast this but time is getting short…..

Measures of Crime

(2) The National Crime Victimization Survey, begun in 1973, is administered by US Census Bureau. This measure is a representative telephone sampling of approximately 40,000 households to determine how many people were victimized by one of seven crimes in past year.

The crimes recorded are rape, robbery, assault, personal theft, household theft, burglary, and motor vehicle theft;

the NCVS does not measure murder rates because the victims cannot be surveyed.




The NCVS undercounts rape and sex assault moved here...

We’ve Been Measuring Rape All Wrong




And another reason to not use the NCVS...they can't even count those things they are actually studying correctly, let alone something like guns that they aren't actually studying...

National Crime Victimization Survey A new report finds that the Justice Department has been undercounting instances of rape and sexual assault.

How helpful, then, that the Justice Department asked the National Research Council (part of the National Academies, which also includes the National Academy of Sciences and the Institute of Medicine) to study how successfully the federal government measures rape.

The answer has just arrived, in a report out Tuesday with the headline from the press release: “The National Crime Victimization Survey Is Likely Undercounting Rape and Sexual Assault.” We’re not talking about small fractions—we’re talking about the kind of potentially massive underestimate that the military and the Justice Department have warned about for years—and that could be throwing a wrench into the effort to do the most effective type of rape prevention.....

But here are the flaws that call the nice-sounding stats into doubt: The NCVS is designed to measure all kinds of crime victimization. The questions it poses about sexual violence are embedded among questions that ask about lots of other types of crime. For example:

So......the NCVS can't get an accurate account of what it is researching....how do we know this...the numbers are off...

There is, in fact, an existing survey that has many of the attributes the NCVS currently lacks. It’s administered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and it’s called the National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey. (NISVS is the acronym. Apologies for the alphabet soup.)

NISVS “represents the public health perspective,” as Tuesday’s report puts it, and it asks questions about specific behavior, including whether the survey-taker was unable to consent to sex because he or she had been drinking or taking drugs. NISVS was first conducted in 2010, so it doesn’t go back in time the way the NCVS numbers do.


But here’s the startling direct comparison between the two measures: NISVS counted 1.27 million total sexual acts of forced penetration for women over the past year (including completed, attempted, and alcohol or drug facilitated).

NCVS counted only 188,380 for rape and sexual assault.

And the FBI, which collects its data from local law enforcement, and so only counts rapes and attempted rapes that have been reported as crimes, totaled only 85,593 for 2010.

So no....the NCVS is not a tool to understand the use of guns for self defense..........

And the most obvious point.......they undercount rape and sexual assault by a vast number compared to an actual study that researches rape and sexual assault....using the same method the anti gunners claim for the number of gun defenses....

But here’s the startling direct comparison between the two measures: NISVS counted 1.27 million total sexual acts of forced penetration for women over the past year (including completed, attempted, and alcohol or drug facilitated).

NCVS counted only 188,380 for rape and sexual assault.


The Daily Kos on why the NCVS is wrong...
Defensive Gun Use (Part III) - The National Crime Victimization Study

 

[2aguy]

I know you don't want Kellerman to be real... but how about doing an ACTUAL gun study and record every gun death.

Every suicide. (19500)
Every accident (800)
Every murder (11,000)
Every justifiable homicide (200).


Yeah, Kellerman probably had it about right.

suicide....Japan, Soth Korea, and China all have 2x the suicide rates and zero access to guns and in the United States we have 19,000 people who commit suicide without a gun....

accidental gun deaths in 2013 from the CDC....505....with over 320 million guns in private hands and over 13 million people carrying guns....and the accidental death rate is going down, not up...

Gun murders according to the FBI table 8....8,124, the majority of which are violent career criminals murdering other career criminals, with illegally possessed guns. and this rate is going down, not up.

and with over 320 million guns in private hands, and 13 million people carrying guns each year there are 1.5 million defensive gun uses according to a study commissioned by Bill Clinton through his department of justice....

And in those uses...criminals are only dumb enough to press their attack about 260 times where they have to be shot and killed....since normal gun owners do not want to shoot anyone...

1.5 million dgu (defensive gun uses) per year is over 4000 per day. That's a lot. I've never owned a gun or was in a situation where I wished I had one for defensive purposes. I don't know anybody who has ever used a gun for dgu. Have any of you ever dgu(ed). Do you know anybody who has? A few of the respondents to this survey 2aguy cites reported large numbers of times they used a gun for defensive purposes in the surveyed year. One woman reported 52 dgu! Jesus, is Matt Dillon available? Some of you Yanks (I know I shouldn't use that to include all but...) really still live in the wild west! 52 times in one year that woman needed to use a gun to defend herself. Incredible.

I got that info from this brief by Bill Clinton's DOJ on that study by Bill Clinton's DOJ that 2aguy cites.

U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs National Institute of Justice

I'll quote some more from Bill Clinton's DOJ brief on that study commissioned by Bill Clinton's DOJ that 2aguy cites; (notice that 1 person in this study statistically represents about 79,000 Americans. You do the math.)

"Forty-five respondents reported a defensive gun use in 1994 against a person
(exhibit 7). Given the sampling weights, these respondents constitute 1.6 percent of the sample and represent 3.1 million adults. Almost half of these respondents reported multiple DGUs during 1994, which provides the basis for estimating the 1994 DGU incidence at 23 million. This surprising figure is caused in part by a few respondents reporting large numbers of defensive gun uses during the year; for example, one woman reported 52!"

"A somewhat more conservative NSPOF estimate is shown in the column of exhibit 7 that reflects the application of the criteria used by Kleck and Gertz to identify "genuine" defensive gun uses. Respondents were excluded on the basis of the most recent DGU description for any of the following reasons: the respondent did not see a perpetrator; the respondent could not state a specific crime that was involved in the incident; or the respondent did not actually display the gun or mention it to the perpetrator. Applying those restrictions leaves 19 NSPOF respondents (0.8 percent of the sample), representing 1.5 million defensive users. This estimate is directly comparable to the well-known estimate of Kleck and Gertz, shown in the last column of exhibit 7. While the NSPOF estimate is smaller, it is statistically plausible that the difference is due to sampling error. Inclusion of multiple DGUs reported by half of the 19 NSPOF respondents increases the estimate to 4.7 million DGUs"

"Evidence suggests that this survey and others like it overestimate the frequency with which firearms were used by private citizens to defend against criminal attack."

"Slightly more than half of all privately owned firearms were stored unlocked; 16 percent of firearms were stored unlocked and loaded."

"About 211,000 handguns and 382,000 long guns were stolen in noncommercial thefts in 1994"


"Some troubling comparisons"
. "If the DGU numbers are in the right ballpark, millions of attempted assaults, thefts, and break-ins were foiled by armed citizens during the 12- month period. According to these results, guns are used far more often to defend against crime than to perpetrate crime."

"Thus, it is of considerable interest and importance to check the reasonableness of the NSPOF estimates before embracing them"

"For example, in only a small fraction of rape and robbery attempts do victims use guns in self-defense. It does not make sense, then, that the NSPOF estimate of the number of rapes in which a woman defended herself with a gun was more than the total number of rapes estimated from NCVS (exhibit 8)".

Remember I'm still quoting from Bill Clinton's DOJ brief on the study commissioned by Bill Clinton's DOJ
.
"It traces its origin to a two-decade-old series of surveys that, despite being thoroughly repudiated at the time, persists in influencing personal safety decisions and public policy throughout the United States."

"For other crimes listed in exhibit 8, the results are almost as absurd: the NSPOF estimate of DGU robberies is 36 percent of all NCVS-estimated robberies, while the NSPOF estimate of DGU assaults is 19 percent of all aggravated assaults. If those percentages were close to accurate, crime would be a risky business indeed!"

Whoa! I just went to all this work to point out that there are facts and then there are facts. If somebody quotes something and it inspires a hmmmm....I check it out. I think this study that 2aguy cited is fatally flawed, that's not his fault. He's allowed to use info from a supposedly reliable source, that doesn't make the source reliable. I ran into several sites questioning this study and others designed like it. A study by Kleck and Getz’s similar to the DOJ's and mentioned with-in the brief ended up with 2.5 million DGU.

In ancient times they had no statistics so they had to fall back on lies...
Stephen Leacock
There are lies, damned lies and statistics...
Mark Twain
Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable...
Mark Twain

"Brand new data compiled by the Gun Violence Archive, a non-partisan organization devoted to collecting gun violence data, further confirms Hemenway’s suspicion that Kleck and Getz’s findings are absurd. The archive found that for all of 2014 there were fewer than 1,600 verified defensive guns uses, meaning a police report was filed. This total includes all outcomes and types of defensive uses with a police report—a far cry from the millions that Kleck and Getz estimated."

So why do I think any of this bullshit matters?

"In the early hours of Nov. 2, 2013, in Dearborn Heights, Michigan, a pounding at the door startled Theodore Wafer from his slumber. Unable to find his cell phone to call the police, he grabbed the shotgun he kept loaded in his closet. Wafer opened the door and, spotting a dark figure behind the screen, fired a single blast at the supposed intruder. The shot killed a 19-year-old girl who was knocking to ask for help after a car accident".

"Shortly after midnight on June 5, 2014, two friends left a party briefly. Upon returning they accidently knocked on the wrong door. Believing burglars were breaking in, the frightened homeowner called the police, grabbed his gun and fired a single round, hitting one of the confused party-goers in the chest".

"On Sept. 21, 2014, Eusebio Christian was awakened by a noise. Assuming a break-in, he rushed to the kitchen with his gun and began firing. All his shots missed but one, which struck his wife in the face"

"What do these and so many other cases have in common? They are the byproduct of a tragic myth: that millions of gun owners successfully use their firearms to defend themselves and their families from criminals. Despite having nearly no academic support in public health literature, this myth is the single largest motivation behind gun ownership. It traces its origin to a two-decade-old series of surveys that, despite being thoroughly repudiated at the time, persists in influencing personal safety decisions and public policy throughout the United States."

"The claim has since become gospel for gun advocates and is frequently touted by the National Rifle Association, pro-gun scholars such as John Lott and conservative politicians. The argument typically goes something like this: Guns are used defensively “over 2 million times every year—five times more frequently than the 430,000 times guns were used to commit crimes.”

'And indeed, comparing NCVS results to NCVS results yields a very different picture—that more than 9 times as many people are victimized by guns than protected by them. Respondents in two Harvard surveys had more than 3 times as many offensive gun uses against them as defensive gun uses. Another study focusing on adolescences found 13 times as many offensive gun uses. Yet another study focusing on gun use in the home found that a gun was more than 6 times more likely to be used to intimidate a family member than in a defensive capacity. The evidence is nearly unanimous'.

And the fact that they cite the Gun Violence Archive……it is not a credible source…here is a quick look at why……first…it is not Non-partisan…..

"Brand new data compiled by the Gun Violence Archive, a non-partisan organization

Why the "Gun Violence Archive" Is Flawed From the Start - The Truth About Guns

 

[2aguy]

I know you don't want Kellerman to be real... but how about doing an ACTUAL gun study and record every gun death.

Every suicide. (19500)
Every accident (800)
Every murder (11,000)
Every justifiable homicide (200).


Yeah, Kellerman probably had it about right.

suicide....Japan, Soth Korea, and China all have 2x the suicide rates and zero access to guns and in the United States we have 19,000 people who commit suicide without a gun....

accidental gun deaths in 2013 from the CDC....505....with over 320 million guns in private hands and over 13 million people carrying guns....and the accidental death rate is going down, not up...

Gun murders according to the FBI table 8....8,124, the majority of which are violent career criminals murdering other career criminals, with illegally possessed guns. and this rate is going down, not up.

and with over 320 million guns in private hands, and 13 million people carrying guns each year there are 1.5 million defensive gun uses according to a study commissioned by Bill Clinton through his department of justice....

And in those uses...criminals are only dumb enough to press their attack about 260 times where they have to be shot and killed....since normal gun owners do not want to shoot anyone...

1.5 million dgu (defensive gun uses) per year is over 4000 per day. That's a lot. I've never owned a gun or was in a situation where I wished I had one for defensive purposes. I don't know anybody who has ever used a gun for dgu. Have any of you ever dgu(ed). Do you know anybody who has? A few of the respondents to this survey 2aguy cites reported large numbers of times they used a gun for defensive purposes in the surveyed year. One woman reported 52 dgu! Jesus, is Matt Dillon available? Some of you Yanks (I know I shouldn't use that to include all but...) really still live in the wild west! 52 times in one year that woman needed to use a gun to defend herself. Incredible.

I got that info from this brief by Bill Clinton's DOJ on that study by Bill Clinton's DOJ that 2aguy cites.

U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs National Institute of Justice

I'll quote some more from Bill Clinton's DOJ brief on that study commissioned by Bill Clinton's DOJ that 2aguy cites; (notice that 1 person in this study statistically represents about 79,000 Americans. You do the math.)

"Forty-five respondents reported a defensive gun use in 1994 against a person
(exhibit 7). Given the sampling weights, these respondents constitute 1.6 percent of the sample and represent 3.1 million adults. Almost half of these respondents reported multiple DGUs during 1994, which provides the basis for estimating the 1994 DGU incidence at 23 million. This surprising figure is caused in part by a few respondents reporting large numbers of defensive gun uses during the year; for example, one woman reported 52!"

"A somewhat more conservative NSPOF estimate is shown in the column of exhibit 7 that reflects the application of the criteria used by Kleck and Gertz to identify "genuine" defensive gun uses. Respondents were excluded on the basis of the most recent DGU description for any of the following reasons: the respondent did not see a perpetrator; the respondent could not state a specific crime that was involved in the incident; or the respondent did not actually display the gun or mention it to the perpetrator. Applying those restrictions leaves 19 NSPOF respondents (0.8 percent of the sample), representing 1.5 million defensive users. This estimate is directly comparable to the well-known estimate of Kleck and Gertz, shown in the last column of exhibit 7. While the NSPOF estimate is smaller, it is statistically plausible that the difference is due to sampling error. Inclusion of multiple DGUs reported by half of the 19 NSPOF respondents increases the estimate to 4.7 million DGUs"

"Evidence suggests that this survey and others like it overestimate the frequency with which firearms were used by private citizens to defend against criminal attack."

"Slightly more than half of all privately owned firearms were stored unlocked; 16 percent of firearms were stored unlocked and loaded."

"About 211,000 handguns and 382,000 long guns were stolen in noncommercial thefts in 1994"


"Some troubling comparisons"
. "If the DGU numbers are in the right ballpark, millions of attempted assaults, thefts, and break-ins were foiled by armed citizens during the 12- month period. According to these results, guns are used far more often to defend against crime than to perpetrate crime."

"Thus, it is of considerable interest and importance to check the reasonableness of the NSPOF estimates before embracing them"

"For example, in only a small fraction of rape and robbery attempts do victims use guns in self-defense. It does not make sense, then, that the NSPOF estimate of the number of rapes in which a woman defended herself with a gun was more than the total number of rapes estimated from NCVS (exhibit 8)".

Remember I'm still quoting from Bill Clinton's DOJ brief on the study commissioned by Bill Clinton's DOJ
.
"It traces its origin to a two-decade-old series of surveys that, despite being thoroughly repudiated at the time, persists in influencing personal safety decisions and public policy throughout the United States."

"For other crimes listed in exhibit 8, the results are almost as absurd: the NSPOF estimate of DGU robberies is 36 percent of all NCVS-estimated robberies, while the NSPOF estimate of DGU assaults is 19 percent of all aggravated assaults. If those percentages were close to accurate, crime would be a risky business indeed!"

Whoa! I just went to all this work to point out that there are facts and then there are facts. If somebody quotes something and it inspires a hmmmm....I check it out. I think this study that 2aguy cited is fatally flawed, that's not his fault. He's allowed to use info from a supposedly reliable source, that doesn't make the source reliable. I ran into several sites questioning this study and others designed like it. A study by Kleck and Getz’s similar to the DOJ's and mentioned with-in the brief ended up with 2.5 million DGU.

In ancient times they had no statistics so they had to fall back on lies...
Stephen Leacock
There are lies, damned lies and statistics...
Mark Twain
Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable...
Mark Twain

"Brand new data compiled by the Gun Violence Archive, a non-partisan organization devoted to collecting gun violence data, further confirms Hemenway’s suspicion that Kleck and Getz’s findings are absurd. The archive found that for all of 2014 there were fewer than 1,600 verified defensive guns uses, meaning a police report was filed. This total includes all outcomes and types of defensive uses with a police report—a far cry from the millions that Kleck and Getz estimated."

So why do I think any of this bullshit matters?

"In the early hours of Nov. 2, 2013, in Dearborn Heights, Michigan, a pounding at the door startled Theodore Wafer from his slumber. Unable to find his cell phone to call the police, he grabbed the shotgun he kept loaded in his closet. Wafer opened the door and, spotting a dark figure behind the screen, fired a single blast at the supposed intruder. The shot killed a 19-year-old girl who was knocking to ask for help after a car accident".

"Shortly after midnight on June 5, 2014, two friends left a party briefly. Upon returning they accidently knocked on the wrong door. Believing burglars were breaking in, the frightened homeowner called the police, grabbed his gun and fired a single round, hitting one of the confused party-goers in the chest".

"On Sept. 21, 2014, Eusebio Christian was awakened by a noise. Assuming a break-in, he rushed to the kitchen with his gun and began firing. All his shots missed but one, which struck his wife in the face"

"What do these and so many other cases have in common? They are the byproduct of a tragic myth: that millions of gun owners successfully use their firearms to defend themselves and their families from criminals. Despite having nearly no academic support in public health literature, this myth is the single largest motivation behind gun ownership. It traces its origin to a two-decade-old series of surveys that, despite being thoroughly repudiated at the time, persists in influencing personal safety decisions and public policy throughout the United States."

"The claim has since become gospel for gun advocates and is frequently touted by the National Rifle Association, pro-gun scholars such as John Lott and conservative politicians. The argument typically goes something like this: Guns are used defensively “over 2 million times every year—five times more frequently than the 430,000 times guns were used to commit crimes.”

'And indeed, comparing NCVS results to NCVS results yields a very different picture—that more than 9 times as many people are victimized by guns than protected by them. Respondents in two Harvard surveys had more than 3 times as many offensive gun uses against them as defensive gun uses. Another study focusing on adolescences found 13 times as many offensive gun uses. Yet another study focusing on gun use in the home found that a gun was more than 6 times more likely to be used to intimidate a family member than in a defensive capacity. The evidence is nearly unanimous'.

So why do I think any of this bullshit matters?

Accidental gun deaths….in 2013…. 505 from the CDC table 10

In a country of over 320 million guns…..

And I have already given the list of the studies that show, over a period of over 40 years, that on average, non military and non police defensive gun use occurs 2 million times a year…….

And kellerman, the study quoted here….

Yet another study focusing on gun use in the home found that a gun was more than 6 times more likely to be used to intimidate a family member than in a defensive capacity. The evidence is nearly unanimous'.

Has had to retract his number…..and has been found to use criminals murdering criminals..as acquaintances to push that number up….look up the critique of kellerman…..and hemenway for that matter…...

 

[2aguy]

I know you don't want Kellerman to be real... but how about doing an ACTUAL gun study and record every gun death.

Every suicide. (19500)
Every accident (800)
Every murder (11,000)
Every justifiable homicide (200).


Yeah, Kellerman probably had it about right.

suicide....Japan, Soth Korea, and China all have 2x the suicide rates and zero access to guns and in the United States we have 19,000 people who commit suicide without a gun....

accidental gun deaths in 2013 from the CDC....505....with over 320 million guns in private hands and over 13 million people carrying guns....and the accidental death rate is going down, not up...

Gun murders according to the FBI table 8....8,124, the majority of which are violent career criminals murdering other career criminals, with illegally possessed guns. and this rate is going down, not up.

and with over 320 million guns in private hands, and 13 million people carrying guns each year there are 1.5 million defensive gun uses according to a study commissioned by Bill Clinton through his department of justice....

And in those uses...criminals are only dumb enough to press their attack about 260 times where they have to be shot and killed....since normal gun owners do not want to shoot anyone...

1.5 million dgu (defensive gun uses) per year is over 4000 per day. That's a lot. I've never owned a gun or was in a situation where I wished I had one for defensive purposes. I don't know anybody who has ever used a gun for dgu. Have any of you ever dgu(ed). Do you know anybody who has? A few of the respondents to this survey 2aguy cites reported large numbers of times they used a gun for defensive purposes in the surveyed year. One woman reported 52 dgu! Jesus, is Matt Dillon available? Some of you Yanks (I know I shouldn't use that to include all but...) really still live in the wild west! 52 times in one year that woman needed to use a gun to defend herself. Incredible.

I got that info from this brief by Bill Clinton's DOJ on that study by Bill Clinton's DOJ that 2aguy cites.

U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs National Institute of Justice

I'll quote some more from Bill Clinton's DOJ brief on that study commissioned by Bill Clinton's DOJ that 2aguy cites; (notice that 1 person in this study statistically represents about 79,000 Americans. You do the math.)

"Forty-five respondents reported a defensive gun use in 1994 against a person
(exhibit 7). Given the sampling weights, these respondents constitute 1.6 percent of the sample and represent 3.1 million adults. Almost half of these respondents reported multiple DGUs during 1994, which provides the basis for estimating the 1994 DGU incidence at 23 million. This surprising figure is caused in part by a few respondents reporting large numbers of defensive gun uses during the year; for example, one woman reported 52!"

"A somewhat more conservative NSPOF estimate is shown in the column of exhibit 7 that reflects the application of the criteria used by Kleck and Gertz to identify "genuine" defensive gun uses. Respondents were excluded on the basis of the most recent DGU description for any of the following reasons: the respondent did not see a perpetrator; the respondent could not state a specific crime that was involved in the incident; or the respondent did not actually display the gun or mention it to the perpetrator. Applying those restrictions leaves 19 NSPOF respondents (0.8 percent of the sample), representing 1.5 million defensive users. This estimate is directly comparable to the well-known estimate of Kleck and Gertz, shown in the last column of exhibit 7. While the NSPOF estimate is smaller, it is statistically plausible that the difference is due to sampling error. Inclusion of multiple DGUs reported by half of the 19 NSPOF respondents increases the estimate to 4.7 million DGUs"

"Evidence suggests that this survey and others like it overestimate the frequency with which firearms were used by private citizens to defend against criminal attack."

"Slightly more than half of all privately owned firearms were stored unlocked; 16 percent of firearms were stored unlocked and loaded."

"About 211,000 handguns and 382,000 long guns were stolen in noncommercial thefts in 1994"


"Some troubling comparisons"
. "If the DGU numbers are in the right ballpark, millions of attempted assaults, thefts, and break-ins were foiled by armed citizens during the 12- month period. According to these results, guns are used far more often to defend against crime than to perpetrate crime."

"Thus, it is of considerable interest and importance to check the reasonableness of the NSPOF estimates before embracing them"

"For example, in only a small fraction of rape and robbery attempts do victims use guns in self-defense. It does not make sense, then, that the NSPOF estimate of the number of rapes in which a woman defended herself with a gun was more than the total number of rapes estimated from NCVS (exhibit 8)".

Remember I'm still quoting from Bill Clinton's DOJ brief on the study commissioned by Bill Clinton's DOJ
.
"It traces its origin to a two-decade-old series of surveys that, despite being thoroughly repudiated at the time, persists in influencing personal safety decisions and public policy throughout the United States."

"For other crimes listed in exhibit 8, the results are almost as absurd: the NSPOF estimate of DGU robberies is 36 percent of all NCVS-estimated robberies, while the NSPOF estimate of DGU assaults is 19 percent of all aggravated assaults. If those percentages were close to accurate, crime would be a risky business indeed!"

Whoa! I just went to all this work to point out that there are facts and then there are facts. If somebody quotes something and it inspires a hmmmm....I check it out. I think this study that 2aguy cited is fatally flawed, that's not his fault. He's allowed to use info from a supposedly reliable source, that doesn't make the source reliable. I ran into several sites questioning this study and others designed like it. A study by Kleck and Getz’s similar to the DOJ's and mentioned with-in the brief ended up with 2.5 million DGU.

In ancient times they had no statistics so they had to fall back on lies...
Stephen Leacock
There are lies, damned lies and statistics...
Mark Twain
Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable...
Mark Twain

"Brand new data compiled by the Gun Violence Archive, a non-partisan organization devoted to collecting gun violence data, further confirms Hemenway’s suspicion that Kleck and Getz’s findings are absurd. The archive found that for all of 2014 there were fewer than 1,600 verified defensive guns uses, meaning a police report was filed. This total includes all outcomes and types of defensive uses with a police report—a far cry from the millions that Kleck and Getz estimated."

So why do I think any of this bullshit matters?

"In the early hours of Nov. 2, 2013, in Dearborn Heights, Michigan, a pounding at the door startled Theodore Wafer from his slumber. Unable to find his cell phone to call the police, he grabbed the shotgun he kept loaded in his closet. Wafer opened the door and, spotting a dark figure behind the screen, fired a single blast at the supposed intruder. The shot killed a 19-year-old girl who was knocking to ask for help after a car accident".

"Shortly after midnight on June 5, 2014, two friends left a party briefly. Upon returning they accidently knocked on the wrong door. Believing burglars were breaking in, the frightened homeowner called the police, grabbed his gun and fired a single round, hitting one of the confused party-goers in the chest".

"On Sept. 21, 2014, Eusebio Christian was awakened by a noise. Assuming a break-in, he rushed to the kitchen with his gun and began firing. All his shots missed but one, which struck his wife in the face"

"What do these and so many other cases have in common? They are the byproduct of a tragic myth: that millions of gun owners successfully use their firearms to defend themselves and their families from criminals. Despite having nearly no academic support in public health literature, this myth is the single largest motivation behind gun ownership. It traces its origin to a two-decade-old series of surveys that, despite being thoroughly repudiated at the time, persists in influencing personal safety decisions and public policy throughout the United States."

"The claim has since become gospel for gun advocates and is frequently touted by the National Rifle Association, pro-gun scholars such as John Lott and conservative politicians. The argument typically goes something like this: Guns are used defensively “over 2 million times every year—five times more frequently than the 430,000 times guns were used to commit crimes.”

'And indeed, comparing NCVS results to NCVS results yields a very different picture—that more than 9 times as many people are victimized by guns than protected by them. Respondents in two Harvard surveys had more than 3 times as many offensive gun uses against them as defensive gun uses. Another study focusing on adolescences found 13 times as many offensive gun uses. Yet another study focusing on gun use in the home found that a gun was more than 6 times more likely to be used to intimidate a family member than in a defensive capacity. The evidence is nearly unanimous'.

And for each accident you list…..505 accidental gun deaths in 2013…….out of a country of over 320 million guns in private hands and over 13 million people carrying guns for self defense…..

this is why the issue matters….

From the Armed Citizen website…..

NRA-ILA | Armed Citizen®

GUN LAWS


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2015

Armed gas station employee halts gun-wielding man, Cincinnati.com, Cincinnati, Ohio, 11/21/15, WCPO, Cincinnati, Ohio, 11/20/15
A man entered a Marathon gas station in Cincinnati, Ohio, pulled out a gun and menaced two store employees. One of the employees responded by retrieving a gun and firing at the criminal, striking him ...

GUN LAWS


TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2015

Homeowner fights off four intruders, KSAT, San Antonio, Texas 11/15/15
A group of four people attempted to break into a home in San Antonio, Texas by removing an air conditioning unit from a window and crawling inside. The homeowner responded to the break-in by retrieving ...

GUN LAWS


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 2015

Armed homeowner scares off attacker, KTVA, Anchorage, Alaska 11/13/15
A homeowner was in their house in Anchorage, Alaska when they heard a knock at the door. The homeowner retrieved a gun and went to answer the door. Upon opening the door, an intruder pepper-sprayed ...

GUN LAWS


THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 2015

Elderly woman scares off home invader, WSVN, Miami, Fla. 11/11/15
88-year-old Arlene Orms was at home alone in Miami, Fla. when an intruder kicked in her door. Orms responded by retrieving a .25-caliber pistol and firing at the home invader, prompting the criminal to flee. ...

GUN LAWS


TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 2015

Armed robbers fought off in attempted jewelry store heist, The Winston-Salem Journal, Winston-Salem, N.C. 11/3/15
Three masked robbers entered Long Jewelers in Winston-Salem, N.C., drew guns, and began smashing display cases and collecting jewelry. A worker in the back of the store became aware of the robbery and retrieved a ...


GUN LAWS


FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 6, 2015

Store employees fell armed robbers, WFMZ, Allentown, Pa. 11/01/15
A trio of men, at least one of whom was armed with a gun, entered Latino's Meat Market ...

GUN LAWS


THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2015

Elderly couple fights off real monsters on Halloween, Helena-Arkansas.com, Helena, Ark. 11/01/15
An elderly couple were at home Halloween night, when the doorbell rang. Prepared to hand out candy to trick-or-treaters, the wife opened the door to find four armed robbers, at least two of whom were ...


GUN LAWS


THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2015

New Right-to-Carry permit holder defends himself against armed robbers, FOX 2 Detroit, Detroit, Mich. 10/19/15
A 23-year-old Right-to-Carry permit holder was waiting for a bus after work when a trio of armed men ...


GUN LAWS


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2015

Liquor store employee shoots armed robber, WLKY, Louisville, Ky. 09/28/15
An armed criminal entered Liquor World in Louisville, Ky. and attempted to rob the store. An employee on …




And there are millions of these stories………..

 

[Searcher44]

I know you don't want Kellerman to be real... but how about doing an ACTUAL gun study and record every gun death.

Every suicide. (19500)
Every accident (800)
Every murder (11,000)
Every justifiable homicide (200).


Yeah, Kellerman probably had it about right.

suicide....Japan, Soth Korea, and China all have 2x the suicide rates and zero access to guns and in the United States we have 19,000 people who commit suicide without a gun....

accidental gun deaths in 2013 from the CDC....505....with over 320 million guns in private hands and over 13 million people carrying guns....and the accidental death rate is going down, not up...

Gun murders according to the FBI table 8....8,124, the majority of which are violent career criminals murdering other career criminals, with illegally possessed guns. and this rate is going down, not up.

and with over 320 million guns in private hands, and 13 million people carrying guns each year there are 1.5 million defensive gun uses according to a study commissioned by Bill Clinton through his department of justice....

And in those uses...criminals are only dumb enough to press their attack about 260 times where they have to be shot and killed....since normal gun owners do not want to shoot anyone...

1.5 million dgu (defensive gun uses) per year is over 4000 per day. That's a lot. I've never owned a gun or was in a situation where I wished I had one for defensive purposes. I don't know anybody who has ever used a gun for dgu. Have any of you ever dgu(ed). Do you know anybody who has? A few of the respondents to this survey 2aguy cites reported large numbers of times they used a gun for defensive purposes in the surveyed year. One woman reported 52 dgu! Jesus, is Matt Dillon available? Some of you Yanks (I know I shouldn't use that to include all but...) really still live in the wild west! 52 times in one year that woman needed to use a gun to defend herself. Incredible.

I got that info from this brief by Bill Clinton's DOJ on that study by Bill Clinton's DOJ that 2aguy cites.

U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs National Institute of Justice

I'll quote some more from Bill Clinton's DOJ brief on that study commissioned by Bill Clinton's DOJ that 2aguy cites; (notice that 1 person in this study statistically represents about 79,000 Americans. You do the math.)

"Forty-five respondents reported a defensive gun use in 1994 against a person
(exhibit 7). Given the sampling weights, these respondents constitute 1.6 percent of the sample and represent 3.1 million adults. Almost half of these respondents reported multiple DGUs during 1994, which provides the basis for estimating the 1994 DGU incidence at 23 million. This surprising figure is caused in part by a few respondents reporting large numbers of defensive gun uses during the year; for example, one woman reported 52!"

"A somewhat more conservative NSPOF estimate is shown in the column of exhibit 7 that reflects the application of the criteria used by Kleck and Gertz to identify "genuine" defensive gun uses. Respondents were excluded on the basis of the most recent DGU description for any of the following reasons: the respondent did not see a perpetrator; the respondent could not state a specific crime that was involved in the incident; or the respondent did not actually display the gun or mention it to the perpetrator. Applying those restrictions leaves 19 NSPOF respondents (0.8 percent of the sample), representing 1.5 million defensive users. This estimate is directly comparable to the well-known estimate of Kleck and Gertz, shown in the last column of exhibit 7. While the NSPOF estimate is smaller, it is statistically plausible that the difference is due to sampling error. Inclusion of multiple DGUs reported by half of the 19 NSPOF respondents increases the estimate to 4.7 million DGUs"

"Evidence suggests that this survey and others like it overestimate the frequency with which firearms were used by private citizens to defend against criminal attack."

"Slightly more than half of all privately owned firearms were stored unlocked; 16 percent of firearms were stored unlocked and loaded."

"About 211,000 handguns and 382,000 long guns were stolen in noncommercial thefts in 1994"


"Some troubling comparisons"
. "If the DGU numbers are in the right ballpark, millions of attempted assaults, thefts, and break-ins were foiled by armed citizens during the 12- month period. According to these results, guns are used far more often to defend against crime than to perpetrate crime."

"Thus, it is of considerable interest and importance to check the reasonableness of the NSPOF estimates before embracing them"

"For example, in only a small fraction of rape and robbery attempts do victims use guns in self-defense. It does not make sense, then, that the NSPOF estimate of the number of rapes in which a woman defended herself with a gun was more than the total number of rapes estimated from NCVS (exhibit 8)".

Remember I'm still quoting from Bill Clinton's DOJ brief on the study commissioned by Bill Clinton's DOJ
.
"It traces its origin to a two-decade-old series of surveys that, despite being thoroughly repudiated at the time, persists in influencing personal safety decisions and public policy throughout the United States."

"For other crimes listed in exhibit 8, the results are almost as absurd: the NSPOF estimate of DGU robberies is 36 percent of all NCVS-estimated robberies, while the NSPOF estimate of DGU assaults is 19 percent of all aggravated assaults. If those percentages were close to accurate, crime would be a risky business indeed!"

Whoa! I just went to all this work to point out that there are facts and then there are facts. If somebody quotes something and it inspires a hmmmm....I check it out. I think this study that 2aguy cited is fatally flawed, that's not his fault. He's allowed to use info from a supposedly reliable source, that doesn't make the source reliable. I ran into several sites questioning this study and others designed like it. A study by Kleck and Getz’s similar to the DOJ's and mentioned with-in the brief ended up with 2.5 million DGU.

In ancient times they had no statistics so they had to fall back on lies...
Stephen Leacock
There are lies, damned lies and statistics...
Mark Twain
Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable...
Mark Twain

"Brand new data compiled by the Gun Violence Archive, a non-partisan organization devoted to collecting gun violence data, further confirms Hemenway’s suspicion that Kleck and Getz’s findings are absurd. The archive found that for all of 2014 there were fewer than 1,600 verified defensive guns uses, meaning a police report was filed. This total includes all outcomes and types of defensive uses with a police report—a far cry from the millions that Kleck and Getz estimated."

So why do I think any of this bullshit matters?

"In the early hours of Nov. 2, 2013, in Dearborn Heights, Michigan, a pounding at the door startled Theodore Wafer from his slumber. Unable to find his cell phone to call the police, he grabbed the shotgun he kept loaded in his closet. Wafer opened the door and, spotting a dark figure behind the screen, fired a single blast at the supposed intruder. The shot killed a 19-year-old girl who was knocking to ask for help after a car accident".

"Shortly after midnight on June 5, 2014, two friends left a party briefly. Upon returning they accidently knocked on the wrong door. Believing burglars were breaking in, the frightened homeowner called the police, grabbed his gun and fired a single round, hitting one of the confused party-goers in the chest".

"On Sept. 21, 2014, Eusebio Christian was awakened by a noise. Assuming a break-in, he rushed to the kitchen with his gun and began firing. All his shots missed but one, which struck his wife in the face"

"What do these and so many other cases have in common? They are the byproduct of a tragic myth: that millions of gun owners successfully use their firearms to defend themselves and their families from criminals. Despite having nearly no academic support in public health literature, this myth is the single largest motivation behind gun ownership. It traces its origin to a two-decade-old series of surveys that, despite being thoroughly repudiated at the time, persists in influencing personal safety decisions and public policy throughout the United States."

"The claim has since become gospel for gun advocates and is frequently touted by the National Rifle Association, pro-gun scholars such as John Lott and conservative politicians. The argument typically goes something like this: Guns are used defensively “over 2 million times every year—five times more frequently than the 430,000 times guns were used to commit crimes.”

'And indeed, comparing NCVS results to NCVS results yields a very different picture—that more than 9 times as many people are victimized by guns than protected by them. Respondents in two Harvard surveys had more than 3 times as many offensive gun uses against them as defensive gun uses. Another study focusing on adolescences found 13 times as many offensive gun uses. Yet another study focusing on gun use in the home found that a gun was more than 6 times more likely to be used to intimidate a family member than in a defensive capacity. The evidence is nearly unanimous'.

And for each accident you list…..505 accidental gun deaths in 2013…….out of a country of over 320 million guns in private hands and over 13 million people carrying guns for self defense…..

this is why the issue matters….

From the Armed Citizen website…..

NRA-ILA | Armed Citizen®

GUN LAWS


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2015

Armed gas station employee halts gun-wielding man, Cincinnati.com, Cincinnati, Ohio, 11/21/15, WCPO, Cincinnati, Ohio, 11/20/15
A man entered a Marathon gas station in Cincinnati, Ohio, pulled out a gun and menaced two store employees. One of the employees responded by retrieving a gun and firing at the criminal, striking him ...

GUN LAWS


TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2015

Homeowner fights off four intruders, KSAT, San Antonio, Texas 11/15/15
A group of four people attempted to break into a home in San Antonio, Texas by removing an air conditioning unit from a window and crawling inside. The homeowner responded to the break-in by retrieving ...

GUN LAWS


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 2015

Armed homeowner scares off attacker, KTVA, Anchorage, Alaska 11/13/15
A homeowner was in their house in Anchorage, Alaska when they heard a knock at the door. The homeowner retrieved a gun and went to answer the door. Upon opening the door, an intruder pepper-sprayed ...

GUN LAWS


THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 2015

Elderly woman scares off home invader, WSVN, Miami, Fla. 11/11/15
88-year-old Arlene Orms was at home alone in Miami, Fla. when an intruder kicked in her door. Orms responded by retrieving a .25-caliber pistol and firing at the home invader, prompting the criminal to flee. ...

GUN LAWS


TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 2015

Armed robbers fought off in attempted jewelry store heist, The Winston-Salem Journal, Winston-Salem, N.C. 11/3/15
Three masked robbers entered Long Jewelers in Winston-Salem, N.C., drew guns, and began smashing display cases and collecting jewelry. A worker in the back of the store became aware of the robbery and retrieved a ...


GUN LAWS


FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 6, 2015

Store employees fell armed robbers, WFMZ, Allentown, Pa. 11/01/15
A trio of men, at least one of whom was armed with a gun, entered Latino's Meat Market ...

GUN LAWS


THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2015

Elderly couple fights off real monsters on Halloween, Helena-Arkansas.com, Helena, Ark. 11/01/15
An elderly couple were at home Halloween night, when the doorbell rang. Prepared to hand out candy to trick-or-treaters, the wife opened the door to find four armed robbers, at least two of whom were ...


GUN LAWS


THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2015

New Right-to-Carry permit holder defends himself against armed robbers, FOX 2 Detroit, Detroit, Mich. 10/19/15
A 23-year-old Right-to-Carry permit holder was waiting for a bus after work when a trio of armed men ...


GUN LAWS


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2015

Liquor store employee shoots armed robber, WLKY, Louisville, Ky. 09/28/15
An armed criminal entered Liquor World in Louisville, Ky. and attempted to rob the store. An employee on …




And there are millions of these stories………..

You`ve given me a lot to chew on and like you I have to skedaddle. You`ve rounded`the data from your research to 2,000,000 DGU per year. That`s almost 5,500 per day. Seems impossible, give me some time. I still haven`t gleaned all from the news yet. This is a very strange event. Just saw a report, the reporter was apoplectic over the way the crime scene at the two shooters home was being destroyed by police and others apparently rampaging through it. Never seen a reporter that agitated.

 

[idb]

Wow....this is fun......


You declare a public space a gun free zone......and people are murdered by a mass shooter with a gun........you go to prison......right?

No, you gun nuts are the problem. When you make it easy for the two nuts yesterday to get guns, YOU ARE THE PROBLEM.

Not the fact that we didn't have heavily armed retards at this school yesterday.

California has all the gun control laws that you guys want…magazine limits…..assault weapon bans….limits on the type of hand guns you can have….background checks…..everything….and these people passed all of them….

Except one….

only the law abiding people obeyed the law on not bringing guns into gun free zones…..all of the people at that party obeyed the gun free zone laws……except for the mass shooters….they broke that law…….

And gun control worked like a charm…not one of those law abiding, normal people had a gun in the gun free zone……congratulations on the success of your law….

And congratulations to you for your argument that guns need to be freely available for self-defence...except for the inconvenient fact that that means they're also freely available to murderous lunatics.

Nope…it is against the law for criminals to own or carry guns…if they are caught with them the can be locked up on the spot…….until a lefty judge let's them go which is why we have so much gun crime in the states.

So why do criminals get guns if the laws are so good?

 

[JoeB131]

Tell that to the FBI, DHS, CIA and obama……..

None of those guys sold this fool a gun.

As to some of your points…hemenway is not a reliable source…he relies solely on the National Crime Victimization Survey for all of his numbers…..the thing is, the NCVS is not a defensive gun use study. In fact, the NCVS does not use the word gun or specifically ask about defensive gun uses at all….you have to answer several questions…in front of an agent of the federal government about a crime you were a victim of….

In short, you are happy to cite the FBI studies when they say there were only 8000 murders instead of 11,000....

But you doubt them when they say there were only 49,000 DGU's instead of the 1,500,000 you claim.

RIGHT.

Cherry picking figures is an art form for the gun nutter. They think a gun makes things "bigger".

 

[2aguy]

Wow....this is fun......


You declare a public space a gun free zone......and people are murdered by a mass shooter with a gun........you go to prison......right?

No, you gun nuts are the problem. When you make it easy for the two nuts yesterday to get guns, YOU ARE THE PROBLEM.

Not the fact that we didn't have heavily armed retards at this school yesterday.

California has all the gun control laws that you guys want…magazine limits…..assault weapon bans….limits on the type of hand guns you can have….background checks…..everything….and these people passed all of them….

Except one….

only the law abiding people obeyed the law on not bringing guns into gun free zones…..all of the people at that party obeyed the gun free zone laws……except for the mass shooters….they broke that law…….

And gun control worked like a charm…not one of those law abiding, normal people had a gun in the gun free zone……congratulations on the success of your law….

And congratulations to you for your argument that guns need to be freely available for self-defence...except for the inconvenient fact that that means they're also freely available to murderous lunatics.

Nope…it is against the law for criminals to own or carry guns…if they are caught with them the can be locked up on the spot…….until a lefty judge let's them go which is why we have so much gun crime in the states.

So why do criminals get guns if the laws are so good?

One reason is that they get light sentences for simple possession......here in Chicago the former police commissioner was complaining that prosecutors and judges were letting feline, caught in possession of guns were getting released...and then going out and later committing murder.....the Hidiya Pendleton shooter...the Back of the Yards shooters, the father of the boy who was murdered.....all caught with guns and released without serving time or serving less than 2 years...


also...the Obama Justice Department hasn't been going after gun criminals...their federal arrest rates are way down...

the risk of getting caught with a gun isn't high enough...we need to put 15-20 year sentences on felons caught with guns, on top of whatever other crime they commit...

 

[2aguy]

Tell that to the FBI, DHS, CIA and obama……..

None of those guys sold this fool a gun.

As to some of your points…hemenway is not a reliable source…he relies solely on the National Crime Victimization Survey for all of his numbers…..the thing is, the NCVS is not a defensive gun use study. In fact, the NCVS does not use the word gun or specifically ask about defensive gun uses at all….you have to answer several questions…in front of an agent of the federal government about a crime you were a victim of….

In short, you are happy to cite the FBI studies when they say there were only 8000 murders instead of 11,000....

But you doubt them when they say there were only 49,000 DGU's instead of the 1,500,000 you claim.

RIGHT.

Cherry picking figures is an art form for the gun nutter. They think a gun makes things "bigger".

Nope....the CDC has proven itself to be rabidly anti gun....the FBI aren't quite there yet...and they actually count dead bodies from actual crimes...with crime reports......

the FBI..as our last poster pointed out, only tracks actual reported crime so they will not count self defense with a gun that doesn't come to them in a report.....while all of the gun studies take into account gun defenses that don't lead to an arrest or actual report.....when you show a gun and the criminal runs away...no report is filed and the FBI doesn't count it.

that is why the FBI defensive gun use numbers are so low...all the studies by professional researchers, the economists and criminologists also take into account gun self defense that doesn't lead to a report.....

 

[2aguy]

I know you don't want Kellerman to be real... but how about doing an ACTUAL gun study and record every gun death.

Every suicide. (19500)
Every accident (800)
Every murder (11,000)
Every justifiable homicide (200).


Yeah, Kellerman probably had it about right.

suicide....Japan, Soth Korea, and China all have 2x the suicide rates and zero access to guns and in the United States we have 19,000 people who commit suicide without a gun....

accidental gun deaths in 2013 from the CDC....505....with over 320 million guns in private hands and over 13 million people carrying guns....and the accidental death rate is going down, not up...

Gun murders according to the FBI table 8....8,124, the majority of which are violent career criminals murdering other career criminals, with illegally possessed guns. and this rate is going down, not up.

and with over 320 million guns in private hands, and 13 million people carrying guns each year there are 1.5 million defensive gun uses according to a study commissioned by Bill Clinton through his department of justice....

And in those uses...criminals are only dumb enough to press their attack about 260 times where they have to be shot and killed....since normal gun owners do not want to shoot anyone...

1.5 million dgu (defensive gun uses) per year is over 4000 per day. That's a lot. I've never owned a gun or was in a situation where I wished I had one for defensive purposes. I don't know anybody who has ever used a gun for dgu. Have any of you ever dgu(ed). Do you know anybody who has? A few of the respondents to this survey 2aguy cites reported large numbers of times they used a gun for defensive purposes in the surveyed year. One woman reported 52 dgu! Jesus, is Matt Dillon available? Some of you Yanks (I know I shouldn't use that to include all but...) really still live in the wild west! 52 times in one year that woman needed to use a gun to defend herself. Incredible.

I got that info from this brief by Bill Clinton's DOJ on that study by Bill Clinton's DOJ that 2aguy cites.

U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs National Institute of Justice

I'll quote some more from Bill Clinton's DOJ brief on that study commissioned by Bill Clinton's DOJ that 2aguy cites; (notice that 1 person in this study statistically represents about 79,000 Americans. You do the math.)

"Forty-five respondents reported a defensive gun use in 1994 against a person
(exhibit 7). Given the sampling weights, these respondents constitute 1.6 percent of the sample and represent 3.1 million adults. Almost half of these respondents reported multiple DGUs during 1994, which provides the basis for estimating the 1994 DGU incidence at 23 million. This surprising figure is caused in part by a few respondents reporting large numbers of defensive gun uses during the year; for example, one woman reported 52!"

"A somewhat more conservative NSPOF estimate is shown in the column of exhibit 7 that reflects the application of the criteria used by Kleck and Gertz to identify "genuine" defensive gun uses. Respondents were excluded on the basis of the most recent DGU description for any of the following reasons: the respondent did not see a perpetrator; the respondent could not state a specific crime that was involved in the incident; or the respondent did not actually display the gun or mention it to the perpetrator. Applying those restrictions leaves 19 NSPOF respondents (0.8 percent of the sample), representing 1.5 million defensive users. This estimate is directly comparable to the well-known estimate of Kleck and Gertz, shown in the last column of exhibit 7. While the NSPOF estimate is smaller, it is statistically plausible that the difference is due to sampling error. Inclusion of multiple DGUs reported by half of the 19 NSPOF respondents increases the estimate to 4.7 million DGUs"

"Evidence suggests that this survey and others like it overestimate the frequency with which firearms were used by private citizens to defend against criminal attack."

"Slightly more than half of all privately owned firearms were stored unlocked; 16 percent of firearms were stored unlocked and loaded."

"About 211,000 handguns and 382,000 long guns were stolen in noncommercial thefts in 1994"


"Some troubling comparisons"
. "If the DGU numbers are in the right ballpark, millions of attempted assaults, thefts, and break-ins were foiled by armed citizens during the 12- month period. According to these results, guns are used far more often to defend against crime than to perpetrate crime."

"Thus, it is of considerable interest and importance to check the reasonableness of the NSPOF estimates before embracing them"

"For example, in only a small fraction of rape and robbery attempts do victims use guns in self-defense. It does not make sense, then, that the NSPOF estimate of the number of rapes in which a woman defended herself with a gun was more than the total number of rapes estimated from NCVS (exhibit 8)".

Remember I'm still quoting from Bill Clinton's DOJ brief on the study commissioned by Bill Clinton's DOJ
.
"It traces its origin to a two-decade-old series of surveys that, despite being thoroughly repudiated at the time, persists in influencing personal safety decisions and public policy throughout the United States."

"For other crimes listed in exhibit 8, the results are almost as absurd: the NSPOF estimate of DGU robberies is 36 percent of all NCVS-estimated robberies, while the NSPOF estimate of DGU assaults is 19 percent of all aggravated assaults. If those percentages were close to accurate, crime would be a risky business indeed!"

Whoa! I just went to all this work to point out that there are facts and then there are facts. If somebody quotes something and it inspires a hmmmm....I check it out. I think this study that 2aguy cited is fatally flawed, that's not his fault. He's allowed to use info from a supposedly reliable source, that doesn't make the source reliable. I ran into several sites questioning this study and others designed like it. A study by Kleck and Getz’s similar to the DOJ's and mentioned with-in the brief ended up with 2.5 million DGU.

In ancient times they had no statistics so they had to fall back on lies...
Stephen Leacock
There are lies, damned lies and statistics...
Mark Twain
Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable...
Mark Twain

"Brand new data compiled by the Gun Violence Archive, a non-partisan organization devoted to collecting gun violence data, further confirms Hemenway’s suspicion that Kleck and Getz’s findings are absurd. The archive found that for all of 2014 there were fewer than 1,600 verified defensive guns uses, meaning a police report was filed. This total includes all outcomes and types of defensive uses with a police report—a far cry from the millions that Kleck and Getz estimated."

So why do I think any of this bullshit matters?

"In the early hours of Nov. 2, 2013, in Dearborn Heights, Michigan, a pounding at the door startled Theodore Wafer from his slumber. Unable to find his cell phone to call the police, he grabbed the shotgun he kept loaded in his closet. Wafer opened the door and, spotting a dark figure behind the screen, fired a single blast at the supposed intruder. The shot killed a 19-year-old girl who was knocking to ask for help after a car accident".

"Shortly after midnight on June 5, 2014, two friends left a party briefly. Upon returning they accidently knocked on the wrong door. Believing burglars were breaking in, the frightened homeowner called the police, grabbed his gun and fired a single round, hitting one of the confused party-goers in the chest".

"On Sept. 21, 2014, Eusebio Christian was awakened by a noise. Assuming a break-in, he rushed to the kitchen with his gun and began firing. All his shots missed but one, which struck his wife in the face"

"What do these and so many other cases have in common? They are the byproduct of a tragic myth: that millions of gun owners successfully use their firearms to defend themselves and their families from criminals. Despite having nearly no academic support in public health literature, this myth is the single largest motivation behind gun ownership. It traces its origin to a two-decade-old series of surveys that, despite being thoroughly repudiated at the time, persists in influencing personal safety decisions and public policy throughout the United States."

"The claim has since become gospel for gun advocates and is frequently touted by the National Rifle Association, pro-gun scholars such as John Lott and conservative politicians. The argument typically goes something like this: Guns are used defensively “over 2 million times every year—five times more frequently than the 430,000 times guns were used to commit crimes.”

'And indeed, comparing NCVS results to NCVS results yields a very different picture—that more than 9 times as many people are victimized by guns than protected by them. Respondents in two Harvard surveys had more than 3 times as many offensive gun uses against them as defensive gun uses. Another study focusing on adolescences found 13 times as many offensive gun uses. Yet another study focusing on gun use in the home found that a gun was more than 6 times more likely to be used to intimidate a family member than in a defensive capacity. The evidence is nearly unanimous'.

And for each accident you list…..505 accidental gun deaths in 2013…….out of a country of over 320 million guns in private hands and over 13 million people carrying guns for self defense…..

this is why the issue matters….

From the Armed Citizen website…..

NRA-ILA | Armed Citizen®

GUN LAWS


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2015

Armed gas station employee halts gun-wielding man, Cincinnati.com, Cincinnati, Ohio, 11/21/15, WCPO, Cincinnati, Ohio, 11/20/15
A man entered a Marathon gas station in Cincinnati, Ohio, pulled out a gun and menaced two store employees. One of the employees responded by retrieving a gun and firing at the criminal, striking him ...

GUN LAWS


TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2015

Homeowner fights off four intruders, KSAT, San Antonio, Texas 11/15/15
A group of four people attempted to break into a home in San Antonio, Texas by removing an air conditioning unit from a window and crawling inside. The homeowner responded to the break-in by retrieving ...

GUN LAWS


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 2015

Armed homeowner scares off attacker, KTVA, Anchorage, Alaska 11/13/15
A homeowner was in their house in Anchorage, Alaska when they heard a knock at the door. The homeowner retrieved a gun and went to answer the door. Upon opening the door, an intruder pepper-sprayed ...

GUN LAWS


THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 2015

Elderly woman scares off home invader, WSVN, Miami, Fla. 11/11/15
88-year-old Arlene Orms was at home alone in Miami, Fla. when an intruder kicked in her door. Orms responded by retrieving a .25-caliber pistol and firing at the home invader, prompting the criminal to flee. ...

GUN LAWS


TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 2015

Armed robbers fought off in attempted jewelry store heist, The Winston-Salem Journal, Winston-Salem, N.C. 11/3/15
Three masked robbers entered Long Jewelers in Winston-Salem, N.C., drew guns, and began smashing display cases and collecting jewelry. A worker in the back of the store became aware of the robbery and retrieved a ...


GUN LAWS


FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 6, 2015

Store employees fell armed robbers, WFMZ, Allentown, Pa. 11/01/15
A trio of men, at least one of whom was armed with a gun, entered Latino's Meat Market ...

GUN LAWS


THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2015

Elderly couple fights off real monsters on Halloween, Helena-Arkansas.com, Helena, Ark. 11/01/15
An elderly couple were at home Halloween night, when the doorbell rang. Prepared to hand out candy to trick-or-treaters, the wife opened the door to find four armed robbers, at least two of whom were ...


GUN LAWS


THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2015

New Right-to-Carry permit holder defends himself against armed robbers, FOX 2 Detroit, Detroit, Mich. 10/19/15
A 23-year-old Right-to-Carry permit holder was waiting for a bus after work when a trio of armed men ...


GUN LAWS


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2015

Liquor store employee shoots armed robber, WLKY, Louisville, Ky. 09/28/15
An armed criminal entered Liquor World in Louisville, Ky. and attempted to rob the store. An employee on …




And there are millions of these stories………..

You`ve given me a lot to chew on and like you I have to skedaddle. You`ve rounded`the data from your research to 2,000,000 DGU per year. That`s almost 5,500 per day. Seems impossible, give me some time. I still haven`t gleaned all from the news yet. This is a very strange event. Just saw a report, the reporter was apoplectic over the way the crime scene at the two shooters home was being destroyed by police and others apparently rampaging through it. Never seen a reporter that agitated.

Keep in mind. 2 million..the average of all the gun studies....is out of a country of over 320 million people.....that is .00625% of the population....no matter how big it may seem...and keep in mind that there are over 320 million guns in the population

and some people actually do use their gun more than once for self defense because they live in really bad cities, and that doesn't mean they actually shoot people each time......I will dig up the watch store owner who actually had several gun fights with gang members as they tried to rob his store then tried to kill him in revenge for his killing their gang buddies......

 

[2aguy]

I know you don't want Kellerman to be real... but how about doing an ACTUAL gun study and record every gun death.

Every suicide. (19500)
Every accident (800)
Every murder (11,000)
Every justifiable homicide (200).


Yeah, Kellerman probably had it about right.

suicide....Japan, Soth Korea, and China all have 2x the suicide rates and zero access to guns and in the United States we have 19,000 people who commit suicide without a gun....

accidental gun deaths in 2013 from the CDC....505....with over 320 million guns in private hands and over 13 million people carrying guns....and the accidental death rate is going down, not up...

Gun murders according to the FBI table 8....8,124, the majority of which are violent career criminals murdering other career criminals, with illegally possessed guns. and this rate is going down, not up.

and with over 320 million guns in private hands, and 13 million people carrying guns each year there are 1.5 million defensive gun uses according to a study commissioned by Bill Clinton through his department of justice....

And in those uses...criminals are only dumb enough to press their attack about 260 times where they have to be shot and killed....since normal gun owners do not want to shoot anyone...

1.5 million dgu (defensive gun uses) per year is over 4000 per day. That's a lot. I've never owned a gun or was in a situation where I wished I had one for defensive purposes. I don't know anybody who has ever used a gun for dgu. Have any of you ever dgu(ed). Do you know anybody who has? A few of the respondents to this survey 2aguy cites reported large numbers of times they used a gun for defensive purposes in the surveyed year. One woman reported 52 dgu! Jesus, is Matt Dillon available? Some of you Yanks (I know I shouldn't use that to include all but...) really still live in the wild west! 52 times in one year that woman needed to use a gun to defend herself. Incredible.

I got that info from this brief by Bill Clinton's DOJ on that study by Bill Clinton's DOJ that 2aguy cites.

U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs National Institute of Justice

I'll quote some more from Bill Clinton's DOJ brief on that study commissioned by Bill Clinton's DOJ that 2aguy cites; (notice that 1 person in this study statistically represents about 79,000 Americans. You do the math.)

"Forty-five respondents reported a defensive gun use in 1994 against a person
(exhibit 7). Given the sampling weights, these respondents constitute 1.6 percent of the sample and represent 3.1 million adults. Almost half of these respondents reported multiple DGUs during 1994, which provides the basis for estimating the 1994 DGU incidence at 23 million. This surprising figure is caused in part by a few respondents reporting large numbers of defensive gun uses during the year; for example, one woman reported 52!"

"A somewhat more conservative NSPOF estimate is shown in the column of exhibit 7 that reflects the application of the criteria used by Kleck and Gertz to identify "genuine" defensive gun uses. Respondents were excluded on the basis of the most recent DGU description for any of the following reasons: the respondent did not see a perpetrator; the respondent could not state a specific crime that was involved in the incident; or the respondent did not actually display the gun or mention it to the perpetrator. Applying those restrictions leaves 19 NSPOF respondents (0.8 percent of the sample), representing 1.5 million defensive users. This estimate is directly comparable to the well-known estimate of Kleck and Gertz, shown in the last column of exhibit 7. While the NSPOF estimate is smaller, it is statistically plausible that the difference is due to sampling error. Inclusion of multiple DGUs reported by half of the 19 NSPOF respondents increases the estimate to 4.7 million DGUs"

"Evidence suggests that this survey and others like it overestimate the frequency with which firearms were used by private citizens to defend against criminal attack."

"Slightly more than half of all privately owned firearms were stored unlocked; 16 percent of firearms were stored unlocked and loaded."

"About 211,000 handguns and 382,000 long guns were stolen in noncommercial thefts in 1994"


"Some troubling comparisons"
. "If the DGU numbers are in the right ballpark, millions of attempted assaults, thefts, and break-ins were foiled by armed citizens during the 12- month period. According to these results, guns are used far more often to defend against crime than to perpetrate crime."

"Thus, it is of considerable interest and importance to check the reasonableness of the NSPOF estimates before embracing them"

"For example, in only a small fraction of rape and robbery attempts do victims use guns in self-defense. It does not make sense, then, that the NSPOF estimate of the number of rapes in which a woman defended herself with a gun was more than the total number of rapes estimated from NCVS (exhibit 8)".

Remember I'm still quoting from Bill Clinton's DOJ brief on the study commissioned by Bill Clinton's DOJ
.
"It traces its origin to a two-decade-old series of surveys that, despite being thoroughly repudiated at the time, persists in influencing personal safety decisions and public policy throughout the United States."

"For other crimes listed in exhibit 8, the results are almost as absurd: the NSPOF estimate of DGU robberies is 36 percent of all NCVS-estimated robberies, while the NSPOF estimate of DGU assaults is 19 percent of all aggravated assaults. If those percentages were close to accurate, crime would be a risky business indeed!"

Whoa! I just went to all this work to point out that there are facts and then there are facts. If somebody quotes something and it inspires a hmmmm....I check it out. I think this study that 2aguy cited is fatally flawed, that's not his fault. He's allowed to use info from a supposedly reliable source, that doesn't make the source reliable. I ran into several sites questioning this study and others designed like it. A study by Kleck and Getz’s similar to the DOJ's and mentioned with-in the brief ended up with 2.5 million DGU.

In ancient times they had no statistics so they had to fall back on lies...
Stephen Leacock
There are lies, damned lies and statistics...
Mark Twain
Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable...
Mark Twain

"Brand new data compiled by the Gun Violence Archive, a non-partisan organization devoted to collecting gun violence data, further confirms Hemenway’s suspicion that Kleck and Getz’s findings are absurd. The archive found that for all of 2014 there were fewer than 1,600 verified defensive guns uses, meaning a police report was filed. This total includes all outcomes and types of defensive uses with a police report—a far cry from the millions that Kleck and Getz estimated."

So why do I think any of this bullshit matters?

"In the early hours of Nov. 2, 2013, in Dearborn Heights, Michigan, a pounding at the door startled Theodore Wafer from his slumber. Unable to find his cell phone to call the police, he grabbed the shotgun he kept loaded in his closet. Wafer opened the door and, spotting a dark figure behind the screen, fired a single blast at the supposed intruder. The shot killed a 19-year-old girl who was knocking to ask for help after a car accident".

"Shortly after midnight on June 5, 2014, two friends left a party briefly. Upon returning they accidently knocked on the wrong door. Believing burglars were breaking in, the frightened homeowner called the police, grabbed his gun and fired a single round, hitting one of the confused party-goers in the chest".

"On Sept. 21, 2014, Eusebio Christian was awakened by a noise. Assuming a break-in, he rushed to the kitchen with his gun and began firing. All his shots missed but one, which struck his wife in the face"

"What do these and so many other cases have in common? They are the byproduct of a tragic myth: that millions of gun owners successfully use their firearms to defend themselves and their families from criminals. Despite having nearly no academic support in public health literature, this myth is the single largest motivation behind gun ownership. It traces its origin to a two-decade-old series of surveys that, despite being thoroughly repudiated at the time, persists in influencing personal safety decisions and public policy throughout the United States."

"The claim has since become gospel for gun advocates and is frequently touted by the National Rifle Association, pro-gun scholars such as John Lott and conservative politicians. The argument typically goes something like this: Guns are used defensively “over 2 million times every year—five times more frequently than the 430,000 times guns were used to commit crimes.”

'And indeed, comparing NCVS results to NCVS results yields a very different picture—that more than 9 times as many people are victimized by guns than protected by them. Respondents in two Harvard surveys had more than 3 times as many offensive gun uses against them as defensive gun uses. Another study focusing on adolescences found 13 times as many offensive gun uses. Yet another study focusing on gun use in the home found that a gun was more than 6 times more likely to be used to intimidate a family member than in a defensive capacity. The evidence is nearly unanimous'.

And for each accident you list…..505 accidental gun deaths in 2013…….out of a country of over 320 million guns in private hands and over 13 million people carrying guns for self defense…..

this is why the issue matters….

From the Armed Citizen website…..

NRA-ILA | Armed Citizen®

GUN LAWS


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2015

Armed gas station employee halts gun-wielding man, Cincinnati.com, Cincinnati, Ohio, 11/21/15, WCPO, Cincinnati, Ohio, 11/20/15
A man entered a Marathon gas station in Cincinnati, Ohio, pulled out a gun and menaced two store employees. One of the employees responded by retrieving a gun and firing at the criminal, striking him ...

GUN LAWS


TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2015

Homeowner fights off four intruders, KSAT, San Antonio, Texas 11/15/15
A group of four people attempted to break into a home in San Antonio, Texas by removing an air conditioning unit from a window and crawling inside. The homeowner responded to the break-in by retrieving ...

GUN LAWS


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 2015

Armed homeowner scares off attacker, KTVA, Anchorage, Alaska 11/13/15
A homeowner was in their house in Anchorage, Alaska when they heard a knock at the door. The homeowner retrieved a gun and went to answer the door. Upon opening the door, an intruder pepper-sprayed ...

GUN LAWS


THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 2015

Elderly woman scares off home invader, WSVN, Miami, Fla. 11/11/15
88-year-old Arlene Orms was at home alone in Miami, Fla. when an intruder kicked in her door. Orms responded by retrieving a .25-caliber pistol and firing at the home invader, prompting the criminal to flee. ...

GUN LAWS


TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 2015

Armed robbers fought off in attempted jewelry store heist, The Winston-Salem Journal, Winston-Salem, N.C. 11/3/15
Three masked robbers entered Long Jewelers in Winston-Salem, N.C., drew guns, and began smashing display cases and collecting jewelry. A worker in the back of the store became aware of the robbery and retrieved a ...


GUN LAWS


FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 6, 2015

Store employees fell armed robbers, WFMZ, Allentown, Pa. 11/01/15
A trio of men, at least one of whom was armed with a gun, entered Latino's Meat Market ...

GUN LAWS


THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2015

Elderly couple fights off real monsters on Halloween, Helena-Arkansas.com, Helena, Ark. 11/01/15
An elderly couple were at home Halloween night, when the doorbell rang. Prepared to hand out candy to trick-or-treaters, the wife opened the door to find four armed robbers, at least two of whom were ...


GUN LAWS


THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2015

New Right-to-Carry permit holder defends himself against armed robbers, FOX 2 Detroit, Detroit, Mich. 10/19/15
A 23-year-old Right-to-Carry permit holder was waiting for a bus after work when a trio of armed men ...


GUN LAWS


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2015

Liquor store employee shoots armed robber, WLKY, Louisville, Ky. 09/28/15
An armed criminal entered Liquor World in Louisville, Ky. and attempted to rob the store. An employee on …




And there are millions of these stories………..

You`ve given me a lot to chew on and like you I have to skedaddle. You`ve rounded`the data from your research to 2,000,000 DGU per year. That`s almost 5,500 per day. Seems impossible, give me some time. I still haven`t gleaned all from the news yet. This is a very strange event. Just saw a report, the reporter was apoplectic over the way the crime scene at the two shooters home was being destroyed by police and others apparently rampaging through it. Never seen a reporter that agitated.

I saw this man's story on a news show....there is video in YouTube about what he had to deal with...

He was a regular guy...a store owner, not a trained SEAL or a cop.....he repaired watches.....

Interview with CA shopowner who killed five gang members in three attacks. - Democratic Underground

The man tells his story on this video. Takes ten minutes. WARNING: Video has a picture of dead gang member on floor.
[Video] CA Businessman Shoots and Kills Five Gang Members In Multiple Attacks

For those who don't want to spend ten minutes, I will summarize.

Lance Thomas had a watch repair shop and sold expensive watches. Other, similar stores in area were robbed and their owners were murdered in the robberies. Thomas decided to buy a gun.

First incident: Within weeks of getting the gun, two armed robbers came in, assaulted a customer, drew their guns and demanded all the watches. Thomas had a revolver handy and shot it out with the robbers. One robber was hit, later arrested and convicted. Other robber fled.

Second incident: Thomas bought guns and hid them one every three feet in the shop. He began to practice a lot at a range and plan what to do in different scenarios. Three and a half months later two armed robbers entered his shop, two others stand lookout outside. Gunfight. Many shots. He called 911 while the gunfight was happening. You can hear the shots on the tape. Thomas killed both robbers but was hit four times. He recovered fully.

Third incident: Improves store security, buys better guns, practices more with guns. Two years pass. Single armed robber enters. Shootout. Robber killed, Thomas takes minor wound.

Fourth incident: (Time frame not given) Improves store security some more. Two gang members come in to kill him for revenge. Thomas killed them both. Thomas was not injured. He was quickly told that the gang involved wanted revenge. He shut down the shop and now works by appointment only.

All subjects had extensive criminal records.

My thoughts: He should have had bullet proof glass installed and did all dealing through the glass, like some banks do. I would have done that after one of the other shopkeepers was murdered. Wear Kevlar vest when going from car to shop & back. Yes, wear gun too.

 

[2aguy]

I know you don't want Kellerman to be real... but how about doing an ACTUAL gun study and record every gun death.

Every suicide. (19500)
Every accident (800)
Every murder (11,000)
Every justifiable homicide (200).


Yeah, Kellerman probably had it about right.

suicide....Japan, Soth Korea, and China all have 2x the suicide rates and zero access to guns and in the United States we have 19,000 people who commit suicide without a gun....

accidental gun deaths in 2013 from the CDC....505....with over 320 million guns in private hands and over 13 million people carrying guns....and the accidental death rate is going down, not up...

Gun murders according to the FBI table 8....8,124, the majority of which are violent career criminals murdering other career criminals, with illegally possessed guns. and this rate is going down, not up.

and with over 320 million guns in private hands, and 13 million people carrying guns each year there are 1.5 million defensive gun uses according to a study commissioned by Bill Clinton through his department of justice....

And in those uses...criminals are only dumb enough to press their attack about 260 times where they have to be shot and killed....since normal gun owners do not want to shoot anyone...

1.5 million dgu (defensive gun uses) per year is over 4000 per day. That's a lot. I've never owned a gun or was in a situation where I wished I had one for defensive purposes. I don't know anybody who has ever used a gun for dgu. Have any of you ever dgu(ed). Do you know anybody who has? A few of the respondents to this survey 2aguy cites reported large numbers of times they used a gun for defensive purposes in the surveyed year. One woman reported 52 dgu! Jesus, is Matt Dillon available? Some of you Yanks (I know I shouldn't use that to include all but...) really still live in the wild west! 52 times in one year that woman needed to use a gun to defend herself. Incredible.

I got that info from this brief by Bill Clinton's DOJ on that study by Bill Clinton's DOJ that 2aguy cites.

U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs National Institute of Justice

I'll quote some more from Bill Clinton's DOJ brief on that study commissioned by Bill Clinton's DOJ that 2aguy cites; (notice that 1 person in this study statistically represents about 79,000 Americans. You do the math.)

"Forty-five respondents reported a defensive gun use in 1994 against a person
(exhibit 7). Given the sampling weights, these respondents constitute 1.6 percent of the sample and represent 3.1 million adults. Almost half of these respondents reported multiple DGUs during 1994, which provides the basis for estimating the 1994 DGU incidence at 23 million. This surprising figure is caused in part by a few respondents reporting large numbers of defensive gun uses during the year; for example, one woman reported 52!"

"A somewhat more conservative NSPOF estimate is shown in the column of exhibit 7 that reflects the application of the criteria used by Kleck and Gertz to identify "genuine" defensive gun uses. Respondents were excluded on the basis of the most recent DGU description for any of the following reasons: the respondent did not see a perpetrator; the respondent could not state a specific crime that was involved in the incident; or the respondent did not actually display the gun or mention it to the perpetrator. Applying those restrictions leaves 19 NSPOF respondents (0.8 percent of the sample), representing 1.5 million defensive users. This estimate is directly comparable to the well-known estimate of Kleck and Gertz, shown in the last column of exhibit 7. While the NSPOF estimate is smaller, it is statistically plausible that the difference is due to sampling error. Inclusion of multiple DGUs reported by half of the 19 NSPOF respondents increases the estimate to 4.7 million DGUs"

"Evidence suggests that this survey and others like it overestimate the frequency with which firearms were used by private citizens to defend against criminal attack."

"Slightly more than half of all privately owned firearms were stored unlocked; 16 percent of firearms were stored unlocked and loaded."

"About 211,000 handguns and 382,000 long guns were stolen in noncommercial thefts in 1994"


"Some troubling comparisons"
. "If the DGU numbers are in the right ballpark, millions of attempted assaults, thefts, and break-ins were foiled by armed citizens during the 12- month period. According to these results, guns are used far more often to defend against crime than to perpetrate crime."

"Thus, it is of considerable interest and importance to check the reasonableness of the NSPOF estimates before embracing them"

"For example, in only a small fraction of rape and robbery attempts do victims use guns in self-defense. It does not make sense, then, that the NSPOF estimate of the number of rapes in which a woman defended herself with a gun was more than the total number of rapes estimated from NCVS (exhibit 8)".

Remember I'm still quoting from Bill Clinton's DOJ brief on the study commissioned by Bill Clinton's DOJ
.
"It traces its origin to a two-decade-old series of surveys that, despite being thoroughly repudiated at the time, persists in influencing personal safety decisions and public policy throughout the United States."

"For other crimes listed in exhibit 8, the results are almost as absurd: the NSPOF estimate of DGU robberies is 36 percent of all NCVS-estimated robberies, while the NSPOF estimate of DGU assaults is 19 percent of all aggravated assaults. If those percentages were close to accurate, crime would be a risky business indeed!"

Whoa! I just went to all this work to point out that there are facts and then there are facts. If somebody quotes something and it inspires a hmmmm....I check it out. I think this study that 2aguy cited is fatally flawed, that's not his fault. He's allowed to use info from a supposedly reliable source, that doesn't make the source reliable. I ran into several sites questioning this study and others designed like it. A study by Kleck and Getz’s similar to the DOJ's and mentioned with-in the brief ended up with 2.5 million DGU.

In ancient times they had no statistics so they had to fall back on lies...
Stephen Leacock
There are lies, damned lies and statistics...
Mark Twain
Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable...
Mark Twain

"Brand new data compiled by the Gun Violence Archive, a non-partisan organization devoted to collecting gun violence data, further confirms Hemenway’s suspicion that Kleck and Getz’s findings are absurd. The archive found that for all of 2014 there were fewer than 1,600 verified defensive guns uses, meaning a police report was filed. This total includes all outcomes and types of defensive uses with a police report—a far cry from the millions that Kleck and Getz estimated."

So why do I think any of this bullshit matters?

"In the early hours of Nov. 2, 2013, in Dearborn Heights, Michigan, a pounding at the door startled Theodore Wafer from his slumber. Unable to find his cell phone to call the police, he grabbed the shotgun he kept loaded in his closet. Wafer opened the door and, spotting a dark figure behind the screen, fired a single blast at the supposed intruder. The shot killed a 19-year-old girl who was knocking to ask for help after a car accident".

"Shortly after midnight on June 5, 2014, two friends left a party briefly. Upon returning they accidently knocked on the wrong door. Believing burglars were breaking in, the frightened homeowner called the police, grabbed his gun and fired a single round, hitting one of the confused party-goers in the chest".

"On Sept. 21, 2014, Eusebio Christian was awakened by a noise. Assuming a break-in, he rushed to the kitchen with his gun and began firing. All his shots missed but one, which struck his wife in the face"

"What do these and so many other cases have in common? They are the byproduct of a tragic myth: that millions of gun owners successfully use their firearms to defend themselves and their families from criminals. Despite having nearly no academic support in public health literature, this myth is the single largest motivation behind gun ownership. It traces its origin to a two-decade-old series of surveys that, despite being thoroughly repudiated at the time, persists in influencing personal safety decisions and public policy throughout the United States."

"The claim has since become gospel for gun advocates and is frequently touted by the National Rifle Association, pro-gun scholars such as John Lott and conservative politicians. The argument typically goes something like this: Guns are used defensively “over 2 million times every year—five times more frequently than the 430,000 times guns were used to commit crimes.”

'And indeed, comparing NCVS results to NCVS results yields a very different picture—that more than 9 times as many people are victimized by guns than protected by them. Respondents in two Harvard surveys had more than 3 times as many offensive gun uses against them as defensive gun uses. Another study focusing on adolescences found 13 times as many offensive gun uses. Yet another study focusing on gun use in the home found that a gun was more than 6 times more likely to be used to intimidate a family member than in a defensive capacity. The evidence is nearly unanimous'.

And for each accident you list…..505 accidental gun deaths in 2013…….out of a country of over 320 million guns in private hands and over 13 million people carrying guns for self defense…..

this is why the issue matters….

From the Armed Citizen website…..

NRA-ILA | Armed Citizen®

GUN LAWS


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2015

Armed gas station employee halts gun-wielding man, Cincinnati.com, Cincinnati, Ohio, 11/21/15, WCPO, Cincinnati, Ohio, 11/20/15
A man entered a Marathon gas station in Cincinnati, Ohio, pulled out a gun and menaced two store employees. One of the employees responded by retrieving a gun and firing at the criminal, striking him ...

GUN LAWS


TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2015

Homeowner fights off four intruders, KSAT, San Antonio, Texas 11/15/15
A group of four people attempted to break into a home in San Antonio, Texas by removing an air conditioning unit from a window and crawling inside. The homeowner responded to the break-in by retrieving ...

GUN LAWS


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 2015

Armed homeowner scares off attacker, KTVA, Anchorage, Alaska 11/13/15
A homeowner was in their house in Anchorage, Alaska when they heard a knock at the door. The homeowner retrieved a gun and went to answer the door. Upon opening the door, an intruder pepper-sprayed ...

GUN LAWS


THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 2015

Elderly woman scares off home invader, WSVN, Miami, Fla. 11/11/15
88-year-old Arlene Orms was at home alone in Miami, Fla. when an intruder kicked in her door. Orms responded by retrieving a .25-caliber pistol and firing at the home invader, prompting the criminal to flee. ...

GUN LAWS


TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 2015

Armed robbers fought off in attempted jewelry store heist, The Winston-Salem Journal, Winston-Salem, N.C. 11/3/15
Three masked robbers entered Long Jewelers in Winston-Salem, N.C., drew guns, and began smashing display cases and collecting jewelry. A worker in the back of the store became aware of the robbery and retrieved a ...


GUN LAWS


FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 6, 2015

Store employees fell armed robbers, WFMZ, Allentown, Pa. 11/01/15
A trio of men, at least one of whom was armed with a gun, entered Latino's Meat Market ...

GUN LAWS


THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2015

Elderly couple fights off real monsters on Halloween, Helena-Arkansas.com, Helena, Ark. 11/01/15
An elderly couple were at home Halloween night, when the doorbell rang. Prepared to hand out candy to trick-or-treaters, the wife opened the door to find four armed robbers, at least two of whom were ...


GUN LAWS


THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2015

New Right-to-Carry permit holder defends himself against armed robbers, FOX 2 Detroit, Detroit, Mich. 10/19/15
A 23-year-old Right-to-Carry permit holder was waiting for a bus after work when a trio of armed men ...


GUN LAWS


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2015

Liquor store employee shoots armed robber, WLKY, Louisville, Ky. 09/28/15
An armed criminal entered Liquor World in Louisville, Ky. and attempted to rob the store. An employee on …




And there are millions of these stories………..

You`ve given me a lot to chew on and like you I have to skedaddle. You`ve rounded`the data from your research to 2,000,000 DGU per year. That`s almost 5,500 per day. Seems impossible, give me some time. I still haven`t gleaned all from the news yet. This is a very strange event. Just saw a report, the reporter was apoplectic over the way the crime scene at the two shooters home was being destroyed by police and others apparently rampaging through it. Never seen a reporter that agitated.

Here is the video.....