First, the election is very FAR off. Obama hasn't been leading the whole way, but it would be much much more telling if Obama wasn't leading.
Second, the economy is not growing and we are not in a recovery! If you say well look at the unemployment numbers, even the liberal in the Obama bag Washington Post acknowledge Faux unemployment is going down solely because the long-time unemployed (hence the so called "Not In The Labor Force") keeps growing. Ironically the faux unemployment has reduced because too many people can't even find interviews to go on. Doesn't that make them statisically employment (which is the effect of No In The Labor Force)? Absolutely not!
Going into Nov., if Obama wins, he will be the first encumbent President to have a larger Faux Unemployment number on reelection night that he did when he won the first election.
Obama might win because of these reasons:
(1) Promising and providing entitlements is a lot easier to gain votes, then fixing the economy and getting people back to work.
(2) The Billion dollar attack machine. The Obama attack machine is already starting with fake Romney bully ads to extremely DISHONEST CHARACTERIZATION of Bain Capital. They will spend the Sheeple will believe without asking questions.
(3) As people so-call leave the labor force, the faux unemployment goes down. They will spin, "Yes 7.8 or 8.1 is high, but it would have been 12% without Obama."
(4) They will spin Obamacare into a good thing.
(5) Blacks are racist and slaves to the Democratic machine. Obama could say, move one kill all black newborns in 2013 to get the crime in the back community down, and the Brothers and Sisters will vote for him as close to 100% as you can get.
(6) Entitlements breed a nation of young people the feel entitled. Obama placates them with well more entitlement to buy their vote.
(7) Buy the Latino vote. Obama will sell out the nation to get Latinos to vote for him!
(8) Union cronism. Very few people will dispute that Unions are some of the most corrupt organizations on the planet, yet nothing gets done, because they buy candidates. Obama was bought on sale in Chicago before he even got into politics.
(9) Did I mention the use of entitlements to buy votes?
1. The polls. Obama's maintained a consistent lead over Romney, on average, since - well, since they started keeping track of it it.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama
2. The electoral college. If you consider WI and Penn blue states - which I think is fair - Obama is within a FL-sized margin of victory. In other words, he could lose NM, Nev, Iowa, NH, Ohio, Colorado, NC, and Virginia, and still win. Romney needs to to hit a hard eight. He needs to nearly sweep the swing states to win.
3. Romney's Etch-A-Sketch problem. Who is Romney besides a rich guy with good hair who really wants to be president? What does he stand for?
4. The economy. The economy's going to continue to improve and the one issue Republicans had pinned their hopes on will become less and less important. When Republicans are the only ones trash-talking the economy, people will see what they're doing for what it is.