WHY is the DJIA crashing?

[IndependntLogic]

Anyone saying taxing more is going to help the economy is freaking nuts.

Cut the Fed limo fleet first, why does it cost 4 mil a year to run each limo?

You people are sick in the head imho.

You are absolutely right. Taxes don't have the effect on the economy that the wingnuts and whackjobs like to say. This is proven by both history and just, plain common sense.

 

[expat_panama]

...It's crashing because of the problems in Europe. Widening Eurodollar swap spreads have nothing to do with American politics.

Are you saying you'd personally buy shares in a US company if you saw a change in "Eurodollar swap spreads", or are you just fantasizing?

...I will avoid the falling knives, unless I find stocks to be Stupid Cheap, which they aren't now.

You're still saying it's crashed because of "problems in Europe" even though today's lack of "problems in Europe" saw more crashing and even though you and I know further lack of "problems in Europe" won't make either of us buy.

Talk's nice but action does things. I know a lot of traders like me that sold for the same reason US debt's been downgraded, Obama's tax'n'spend budget and his business bashing policies. We're ready to buy when we see spending & taxes cut --real cuts, not baseline.

 

[saveliberty]

WHY is the DJIA crashing?

America has endured 8-10 years of federal "tax cuts" using borrowed money - it hasn't worked. Where are the jobs and economic prosperity that these "tax cuts" were supposed to generate?

The "reducing the size of government" mantra can be traced back to Reagan Administration, but the irony is that most of the current federal debt was generated under these so-called "smaller government" proponents - Reagan, GHW Bush and GW Bush.

The only way America is going to come to terms with the looming debt is reintroduce the graduated tax system - unfortunately Obama didn't do it when he had the chance!

Are you under the impression we have a flat tax rate currently?

 

[Toro]

...It's crashing because of the problems in Europe. Widening Eurodollar swap spreads have nothing to do with American politics.

Are you saying you'd personally buy shares in a US company if you saw a change in "Eurodollar swap spreads", or are you just fantasizing?

...I will avoid the falling knives, unless I find stocks to be Stupid Cheap, which they aren't now.

You're still saying it's crashed because of "problems in Europe" even though today's lack of "problems in Europe" saw more crashing and even though you and I know further lack of "problems in Europe" won't make either of us buy.

Talk's nice but action does things. I know a lot of traders like me that sold for the same reason US debt's been downgraded, Obama's tax'n'spend budget and his business bashing policies. We're ready to buy when we see spending & taxes cut --real cuts, not baseline.

Today was about the downgrade. Spanish and Italian bond spreads over bunds closed by over 100 bps before the US opened today so people stopped worrying about Europe, at least for the moment. Last week was mainly about Europe but the market was exacerbated by the perception of a slowing economy.

Crashes feed on themselves. People will find a reason to sell when they are scared. More importantly in today's market, the algos will feed on themselves as they key off extremely short-term momentum factors.

 

[expat_panama]

...You're still saying it's crashed because of "problems in Europe" even though today's lack of "problems in Europe" saw more crashing and even though you and I know further lack of "problems in Europe" won't make either of us buy...

Today was about the downgrade. Spanish and Italian bond spreads over bunds closed by over 100 bps before the US opened today so people stopped worrying about Europe...

Ofcourse. Now it's only the downgrade that matters and spreads are nothin'. I knew that.

OK, the reason I can't take this with a straight face is that we both know that the downgrade and the spread bit all happened before opening bell, but you waited until hours after closing bell before being announcing your certainty about exactly what caused today's rout. Don't get me wrong, we all know there's big money to be had in sounding impressive when talking markets. It's just that I've never been able to watch the routine and control my laughter very well.

 

[Toro]

...You're still saying it's crashed because of "problems in Europe" even though today's lack of "problems in Europe" saw more crashing and even though you and I know further lack of "problems in Europe" won't make either of us buy...

Today was about the downgrade. Spanish and Italian bond spreads over bunds closed by over 100 bps before the US opened today so people stopped worrying about Europe...

Ofcourse. Now it's only the downgrade that matters and spreads are nothin'. I knew that.

OK, the reason I can't take this with a straight face is that we both know that the downgrade and the spread bit all happened before opening bell, but you waited until hours after closing bell before being announcing your certainty about exactly what caused today's rout. Don't get me wrong, we all know there's big money to be had in sounding impressive when talking markets. It's just that I've never been able to watch the routine and control my laughter very well.

You mean you expected me to announce with certainty that the Dow was going to fall 600 points and tell you exactly why it happened hours before the market opened? I was looking for the beginnings of a bottom today. Clearly, that didn't happen. So I continue to sit in cash, as I have for the past month.

To make it clear, I don't think in certainties. I think in probabilities. That may not come across on a message board where nuance is void but after nearly 20 years of doing this, I can point to a variety of factors why I believe markets move the way they do.

 

[expat_panama]

...you waited until hours after closing bell before being announcing your certainty about exactly what caused today's rout. Don't get me wrong, we all know there's big money to be had in sounding impressive when talking markets...

You mean you expected me to announce with certainty that the Dow was going to fall 600 points and tell you exactly why it...

Hey neat, your imagination just leaped from merely "knowing" what caused previous market's directions to also knowing I'm demanding the exact points changes.

Seriously, anyone that could've actually determined the day's market direction beforehand would also have made a fortune in short sales and put options. You didn't because you couldn't. 'After' is easy, and useless.

 

[saveliberty]

The sell off was about defense. Your house loses value, but you have to live somewhere. You can't get interest worth anything on cash or bonds. Your other growth asset is probably a 401(k) in stocks. Corporations are playing defense, now individuals are too.

 

[Toro]

...you waited until hours after closing bell before being announcing your certainty about exactly what caused today's rout. Don't get me wrong, we all know there's big money to be had in sounding impressive when talking markets...

You mean you expected me to announce with certainty that the Dow was going to fall 600 points and tell you exactly why it...

Hey neat, your imagination just leaped from merely "knowing" what caused previous market's directions to also knowing I'm demanding the exact points changes.

Seriously, anyone that could've actually determined the day's market direction beforehand would also have made a fortune in short sales and put options. You didn't because you couldn't. 'After' is easy, and useless.

Whatever you say. Don't spend your fortune all in one place.

 

[BoycottTheday]

I wonder if the Fed is in the futures market trying to influence the market today, i wish them luck.

 

[expat_panama]

...Don't spend your fortune all in one place.

We're in agreement on that, really easy to do these days. I'm thinking an even better goal is to avoid spending my fortune all in one generation...

 

[expat_panama]

I wonder if the Fed is in the futures market trying to influence the market today...

Yesterday Rush was ranting about the Fed manipulating the futures markets and I'd like to find out where this story's coming from. I like Limbaugh, he's got a lot of strong points but unfortunately with economics he's a moron.

 

[editec]

OTOH, we're informed that major corporations are sitting on trillions in cash.

So...once the dust of this latest STAMPEDE settles?

Were I am player of the stock market, I'd be looking for smaller corporations that were well suited for buyout by their better heeled corporate brothers.

 

[BoycottTheday]

I wonder if the Fed is in the futures market trying to influence the market today...

Yesterday Rush was ranting about the Fed manipulating the futures markets and I'd like to find out where this story's coming from. I like Limbaugh, he's got a lot of strong points but unfortunately with economics he's a moron.

Dont axe me, thats the purpose of the question mark

 

[FA_Q2]

If raising the debt limit was crucial to avoiding the bloodbath we have witnessed SINCE the dopes acquiesced, then imagine how bad it would have been if they hadn't dumped us so much deeper into debt.

Sorry, I am just now getting into this thread (and probably out too as I don't think I plan on reading 37 pages of this stuff) but isn't that the excuse the Democrats have been laying on us about unemployment. I know I have read that they have "saved" jobs and that we should all be kissing their asses because if Barack had not saved us things would have been much much worse.

Too bad they can't prove that.

Immie

CBO finds 3.7M jobs created by stimulus - The Hill's On The Money

First off, the numbers are complete bullshit. Are we supposed to take the spoonful of crap without ever questioning where such numbers came from? The job market has not gone anywhere and there is nothing that shows 3.7 million created jobs. Another thing of note here is that number is projected and utterly meaningless. What they did give us was 2 supposedly correct numbers: 1.2 and 2.8.
1.2 and 2.8!!!
I am supposed to give them the benefit of the doubt when the high estimate is 133% higher than the low one. It is over double the first number. That is one MASSIVE spread. No accuracy in that at all. Then we get to the numbers:
787 Billion for the stimulus bill.
That’s over 650,000 per job at the bottom estimate and just a bit under 400,000 at the top. Wow, great job using our cash effectively.

The entire premise here is suspect. That is not to mention that this entire time the economy has been shedding jobs at an alarming rate and somehow we are to believe that jobs were created. Sorry, no dice.

 

[Immanuel]

Sorry, I am just now getting into this thread (and probably out too as I don't think I plan on reading 37 pages of this stuff) but isn't that the excuse the Democrats have been laying on us about unemployment. I know I have read that they have "saved" jobs and that we should all be kissing their asses because if Barack had not saved us things would have been much much worse.

Too bad they can't prove that.

Immie

CBO finds 3.7M jobs created by stimulus - The Hill's On The Money

First off, the numbers are complete bullshit. Are we supposed to take the spoonful of crap without ever questioning where such numbers came from? The job market has not gone anywhere and there is nothing that shows 3.7 million created jobs. Another thing of note here is that number is projected and utterly meaningless. What they did give us was 2 supposedly correct numbers: 1.2 and 2.8.
1.2 and 2.8!!!
I am supposed to give them the benefit of the doubt when the high estimate is 133% higher than the low one. It is over double the first number. That is one MASSIVE spread. No accuracy in that at all. Then we get to the numbers:
787 Billion for the stimulus bill.
That’s over 650,000 per job at the bottom estimate and just a bit under 400,000 at the top. Wow, great job using our cash effectively.

The entire premise here is suspect. That is not to mention that this entire time the economy has been shedding jobs at an alarming rate and somehow we are to believe that jobs were created. Sorry, no dice.

You have to remember, FA_Q2, that the premise here is that things would have been worse if it had not been for the stimulus plan. There simply is no way to argue against that unless you have data to prove what would have happened without the plan and no one has such data; therefore, you as a good little American must except what you are told and kiss the asses of the Democrats who so magnanimously worked to save your job.

Oh and don't forget that in gratitude you should be voting for Obama in 2012.

Immie

 

[8537]

Sorry, I am just now getting into this thread (and probably out too as I don't think I plan on reading 37 pages of this stuff) but isn't that the excuse the Democrats have been laying on us about unemployment. I know I have read that they have "saved" jobs and that we should all be kissing their asses because if Barack had not saved us things would have been much much worse.

Too bad they can't prove that.

Immie

CBO finds 3.7M jobs created by stimulus - The Hill's On The Money

First off, the numbers are complete bullshit. Are we supposed to take the spoonful of crap without ever questioning where such numbers came from?

No, but instead of dismissing them out of hand perhaps you could do some research and find out where the numbers came from.

 

[JRK]

You mean you expected me to announce with certainty that the Dow was going to fall 600 points and tell you exactly why it...

Hey neat, your imagination just leaped from merely "knowing" what caused previous market's directions to also knowing I'm demanding the exact points changes.

Seriously, anyone that could've actually determined the day's market direction beforehand would also have made a fortune in short sales and put options. You didn't because you couldn't. 'After' is easy, and useless.

Whatever you say. Don't spend your fortune all in one place.

When the deficit is 163 billion for 2007 after fighting 2 wars, So-on
163 billion with 5% UE does not matter
they matter when it is 1.6 trillion and UE is 10%

 

[Toro]

Hey neat, your imagination just leaped from merely "knowing" what caused previous market's directions to also knowing I'm demanding the exact points changes.

Seriously, anyone that could've actually determined the day's market direction beforehand would also have made a fortune in short sales and put options. You didn't because you couldn't. 'After' is easy, and useless.

Whatever you say. Don't spend your fortune all in one place.

When the deficit is 163 billion for 2007 after fighting 2 wars, So-on
163 billion with 5% UE does not matter
they matter when it is 1.6 trillion and UE is 10%

Er ... ???

 

[FA_Q2]

CBO finds 3.7M jobs created by stimulus - The Hill's On The Money

First off, the numbers are complete bullshit. Are we supposed to take the spoonful of crap without ever questioning where such numbers came from?

No, but instead of dismissing them out of hand perhaps you could do some research and find out where the numbers came from.

But that is the rub, they came from nothing. There is no basis for their numbers other than straight predictions. They openly admit that the numbers would be the same weather or not the economy actually gained those jobs.

They were not simply dismissed out of hand. They were dismissed because they are based purly on models, not reality.