OK, we agree. I'm not saying that the initial drop in January was ONLY because of vaccines, it was probably more related to the end of holiday gatherings. However, as that drop continued, more and more of the most vulnerable kept getting vaccinated.
I don't know when the "break point" happens, or happened, where the vaccinations reduced more new cases than the non-gatherings, but by looking at the "slow" drop rate in new cases from the first two peaks, it looks to me that the vaccinations are accelerating the drop in new cases and deaths, and we already passed the "break point" which is the point of the OP.
The vaccines are in-fact significantly reducing new cases and deaths.
There is a light at the end of the tunnel, as long as a new "vaccine proof" variant doesn't happen. You're welcome.
I don't know what you mean by "break point" or how you determined how we passed it.
The drop in cases is still almost certainly primarily driven by changes in behavior as the percent of the population vaccinated is still around 10%, not nearly enough to give us any kind of herd immunity by any stretch of the imagination. That probably won't happen until we are closer to 40 or 50% vaccinated, combining with another 10-20% of people who have acquired immunity.
"Break Point" means when the vaccines reduce new infections at a faster rate than normal measures w/o the vaccines.
As more and more of the "most exposed" and "most vulnerable" get vaccinated the rate of infections and deaths has to drop.
You seem to imply that the vaccines have no effect yet, I disagree based on the steep drops.
I think it's a combination
This wave and peak came from not social distancing during the holidays....it killed an additional 100,000 people.... in about just one month....
Then the American people started to social distance, wearing masks, and no super spreader rallies or other events AND people started getting the vaccine which has brought us down from that peak....
But not enough vaccinations have taken place to protect us completely....only slightly.
There are some super spreader events that have taken place after the New Year Holiday...the Trump rally and coup attempt on Jan 6th was massive, they went home to a gazillion different State, infected their families and coworkers who then infected others...and those others infected others etc etc....
But that could have already already been included in this last surge of sickness and deaths....let's hope it was....
So next is the Super Bowl super spreader event, again affecting every state from parties and the Tampa Bay street celebrations in Ybor City and everywhere in the city and state....
And this past President Day long weekend, people traveled to other States on vacations and visiting families and friends.
Those two events, we may not have seen the results yet!
Vaccines and those who carry antibodies from previous infection have to be affecting a slower infection spread, but there still was 100,000 deaths the past 4 weeks, which is a HUGE amount of deaths...might be the WORST we have had, the past year since the virus showed up!!
The virus knows we are vaccinating people...and it will try its hardest to outsmart us....and outrun us, by creating variations that are more infectious and more deadly....trying to spread the virus at a faster rate than we can vaccinate.
My fear is it will mutate to start killing younger people and children, because we are only vaccinating the old and sick right now, while the younger are not being vaccinated yet ....so the sneaky evil virus may see them as easy prey?
Gosh, that sounds so bonkers...!!!! But I've learned one thing for sure about viruses like this one.... don't underestimate it!
