william the wie
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- Nov 18, 2009
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- #101
Shiller's figures are extremely conservative, 40-50% by 2015 in real terms is far more likely.
Where will Real Estate Bottom?
- Thread starter william the wie
- Start date
Toronado3800
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- Nov 15, 2009
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On the positive side I will be able to buy more of a house with my McJob.
No really, imagine how worthless land would be if there were only 10 million ppl in the country. Imagine how valuable it would be if we had a billion. Imagine if only a low percentage of the 300 million could afford last year's price....wait, that is where we are now...
Times of population growth like the baby boom created a temporary rise in the demand for housing.
Was there a time when a wife's income was not counted towards what a married couple could count as income towards borrowing for a house? I suspect when the second income could be counted real-estate agents were licking their chops. The general public probably thought housing was a good investment.
An odd lowering of interest rates also inflates home values. Suddenly my $700 a month can purchase a $100,000 home instead of just a $70,000 home, so home values rise for no reason.
No really, imagine how worthless land would be if there were only 10 million ppl in the country. Imagine how valuable it would be if we had a billion. Imagine if only a low percentage of the 300 million could afford last year's price....wait, that is where we are now...
Times of population growth like the baby boom created a temporary rise in the demand for housing.
Was there a time when a wife's income was not counted towards what a married couple could count as income towards borrowing for a house? I suspect when the second income could be counted real-estate agents were licking their chops. The general public probably thought housing was a good investment.
An odd lowering of interest rates also inflates home values. Suddenly my $700 a month can purchase a $100,000 home instead of just a $70,000 home, so home values rise for no reason.
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According to some posters here home prices could fall 90%. Apparently Shiller assumes the bubble abides.
We will see how far the aggregate economy degenerates before a real recovery ensues.
As long as we are better off than Mexico, Japan, Brazil the EU and China we are still ahead of the curve. Even if being ahead means a 50% - 70% drop in living standards.
The ECB chief stressed loud and clear that it would be a disaster to allow wages in the EU to rise in the face of strong inflationary pressure. Austerity for the vast majority of the developed world is now baked into our cake.
The never ending joy ride is over.
Join the Human Race, the majority of which is still dirt poor, as in much poorer than our illegal aliens.
The never ending joy ride is over.
It's hell! In 2004 we built a new construction home for $310K. We completed the basement, added better lighting fixtures and fixed all the basement and I had a realtor do comps for me. The comps came back at $228K and topping at $248K! We still owe $272K! Now there looks like there will be a foreclosure on my block and my neighbor a few doors down is trying to short sell his home. In the end my house could be worth under $210K!
Yep as the standard of living for middleclass and lower middle class Americans continue to decline. And considering the govt spending cuts. That sounds about right.
Toronado3800
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Ghook, I don't think it is that bad unless you plan on moving and can not rent out your current home thus are forced to sell.
For one, you were probably thrilled with your $310,000 home. Enough so you made it better with them improvements.
During them 24 years whatever inflation we have, even 2%, will make your payment seem like less and less of a burden.
In 24 years of making the payments you decided were acceptable you will own it. Just like you planned and signed for!
Don't worry. Just help your neighborhood stay a reasonable place to live and this will not negatively affect you.
Douger
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- #108
Hmmmm. I bought mine for 365 in 1997 and dumped it for 1.3 in 2004.
Now it's back down to what it was in 1997 and yes,still dropping.When your govt no longer exists I may come up and buy it back for back taxes.
The Gambler
He said, "Son, I've made a life, out of readin' people's faces
And knowin' what their cards were by the way they held their eyes
So if you don't mind my sayin', I can see you're out of aces
For a taste of your whiskey I'll give you some advice"
So I handed him my bottle and he drank down my last swallow
Then he bummed a cigarette and asked me for a light
And the night got deathly quiet and his face lost all expression
Said, "If you're gonna play the game, boy, you gotta learn to play it right"
You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away and know when to run
You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealing's done
Every gambler knows that the secret to survivin'
Is knowin' what to throw away and knowing what to keep
[- From: THE GAMBLER Lyrics - KENNY ROGERS -]
'Cause every hand's a winner and every hand's a loser
And the best that you can hope for is to die in your sleep
Bosun
Member
I am going to by two more foreclosures to hedge against inflation.
Bosun
Member
I picked up a foreclosed condo before Thanksgiving, $55k. it had been worth up to $147K before the decline. Condo next door was listed for $122K, but did not sell.... You may be on the verge of getting a good home for a substantially reduced price.
And when the dollar gets hit with mega inflation, your home will be worth much more. Mega inflation is the next shoe to drop after the second housing collapse.
And when the dollar gets hit with mega inflation, your home will be worth much more. Mega inflation is the next shoe to drop after the second housing collapse.
Last edited:
B. Kidd
Diamond Member
Obviously the OP was not reading the 'economy' section back in Nov-Dec when we made all of those accurate housing predictions for 2011.
Article 15
Dr. House slayer
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Good!
B. Kidd
Diamond Member
This is one of those good predictive housing threads. 'Peak decantation' in 2011 William, was, I believe the term you used.
B. Kidd
Diamond Member
This kind of stuff has been going on in Nevada for well over two years, but amplify it by 3x. Welcome to hell!
California Girl
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Let me guess, you rent, right?
Tell me again how liberals care about their fellow man? Hypocrite.
Article 15
Dr. House slayer
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You see, much like CEO pay, the price of homes in this country has risen at a more rapid rate than wages in the last 30 years. The money I have saved up for a down payment on a home right now would have bought my parents house outright in 1980. Today that amount of money gets you a nice down payment on half the house in a worse neighborhood. Meanwhile, I am the same age my father was when he bought the house and at about the same career point. That ain't even close to right.
I'm all about house prices dropping so that ... wait for it ... my fellow man and I can afford a decent home at a decent wage.
I have no idea if the above is valid in the next few months, but I am of the opinion that the median price of real estate will inevitably fall as long as the median purchaing power of the American middle class continues to fall.
As the median family income in this nation has fallen, so too MUST the value of the median family home fall in response.
NOw housing prices still are TOO HIGH, given what people are making if they happen to be lucky enough to even still have jobs.
Real estate prices are inevitably (but not in a straight line way, but still inevitably in the longer run) always going to reflect the amount of money that people take home.
The average family makes $50 K?
The averge home ought to cost about $100,000.
Right now I am informed the median home price is more like $175K or so.
Ergo I believe RE still has a long way to go to get back in line with what people can really afford.
Two Thumbs
Platinum Member
Well if houses fall, more people will be able to buy.
the freaknic idea that everyone should have a home now is becoming more of a reality than the freakshow credit-loan shuffle could ever had done.
man
If my van doesn't fall apart this year, and housing prices do fall..
I could be a home owner by summer of 2012.
the freaknic idea that everyone should have a home now is becoming more of a reality than the freakshow credit-loan shuffle could ever had done.
man
If my van doesn't fall apart this year, and housing prices do fall..
I could be a home owner by summer of 2012.
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