The awful system I support is called the U.S. Constitution. Try it sometime!
If the GOP candidate wins every state from PA down through FL and then every state in the midwest except for IL and WI out to Texas then he wil win. He can lose CA, NY and IL and not have to worry.
Florida is not going for Obama.
You are hung up on evangelicals not voting for Romney. This from someone who is anti-religion is very funny.
That same constitution says black folks are only 3/5 of a white person. Until they amended it, anyway. It's not holy writ. It was written by a bunch of guys who thought slavery was okay and leeches were an acceptable way of medically treating people.
Now for your horrifically flawed analysis.
Yeah, Evangelicals, at least a lot of the ones I talk to, aren't going to vote for a Mormon, no matter how much they hate Obama. That pretty much rules out him getting NC and VA back. Possibly puts Indiana out of the running.
As for Texas. Well, gee, guy. Here's the thing. McCain only beat Obama in Texas by 900,000 votes in 2008. Since then, Hispanics as a percentage of the population has grown there, and you have lots of snake-handlers who won't vote for a Mormon. Texas is definitely in play.
Incidently, if population patterns continue as they are, Texas is a blue State by 2020. Then this electoral college you love so much will make it completely impossible for Republicans to win at all.
Florida Romney has a big problem. The Republican Governor there is roughly as popular a skin rash. So no, not likely he'll take that one.
Perry would probably be stronger in Florida and Texas and the Southern states the GOP needs to get back. Romney might tip Colorado and Nevada back into the GOP column... but that's not enough to really make a difference.