Greenbeard
Gold Member
Health Beat Blog looks at very recent trends in Medicare spending:
One of the more interesting possibilities for this trend? Realignment of the health care system, particularly on the provider end (an example of which was posted in another thread at the end of last year).
The real trick will be to watch whether that curve continues to bend like that over the next few years. And, less passively, to continue rolling out cost control mechanisms (namely, payment and delivery system reforms) to try and ensure that it does.
While our elected representatives wrangle over slicing entitlements, virtually no one seems to be paying attention to an eye-popping fact: Medicare reimbursements are no longer accelerating at a break neck-pace. The new numbers should be factored into any discussion about healthcare spending: From 2000 through 2009, Medicares outlays climbed by an average of 9.7 percent a year. By contrast, since the beginning of 2010, Medicare spending has been rising by less than 4 percent a year. On this, both Standard Poors Index Committee and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) agree. (S&P tracks healthcare spending with the help of Milliman Inc., an independent actuarial and consulting firm.)
What explains the 18-month slow-down? No one is entirely certain. But at the end of July David Blitzer, the chairman of Standard &Poors Index Committee, told me: Im hesitant to say that this is a clear long-term trend. But its more than a blip on the screen."
One of the more interesting possibilities for this trend? Realignment of the health care system, particularly on the provider end (an example of which was posted in another thread at the end of last year).
Standard & Poors Blitzer was more forthcoming. In the S&P report on healthcare spending released on July 21, he wrote: many participants [in the healthcare system] have indicated that providers are trying to address health care reform and are looking for ways to control costs. If true, this combination certainly would be a contributory factor to the moderation in cost we have witnessed since early 2010.
Zeke Emanuel, an oncologist and former special adviser for health policy to White House Office of Management and Budget director Peter Orszag, is certain that this is what is happening. When I spoke to him last week, Emanuel, said: This is not mere chance: this is directly related to the initiation of health care reform. It is not the result of reform, Emmanuel emphasized. The reform measures that will rein in Medicare inflation have not yet been implemented. But, he explained, providers are anticipating the Affordable Care Act kicking in. They cant wait until the end of 2013: They have to act today. Everywhere I go, Emanuel, added, medical schools and hospitals are asking me, How can we cut our costs by 10 to 15 percent?
The real trick will be to watch whether that curve continues to bend like that over the next few years. And, less passively, to continue rolling out cost control mechanisms (namely, payment and delivery system reforms) to try and ensure that it does.