If you look at the "dot plot" interest rates are coming down, two cuts in 2025 and two or three cuts in 2026
Right now the importers are paying the tariffs, but they may pass the cost to consumers if possible
True. Trump's $17T of commitments for new manufacturing plants will take at least 3-years to get running.
Doubtful. College grads can['t find work. Trump just put a $100,000 cost on H1-B visas to get more US kids hired.
We'll see how it plays out. The Participation Rate is still in the low 60% numbers.
With interest rates, Trump doesn't have control of the Federal Reserve. If or when he gets control he wants to use interest rates to boost the stock market.
Donald Trump has been demanding lower rates from the Fed for years—one of the clearest conflicts of interest in a presidency full of them.
www.forbes.com
Also seems to help people like Trump who hold lots of assets like bonds and real estate.
The problem is that it could lead to inflation. Trump doesn't care. For him, as a rich person, he sees inflation as nothing, because his assets will rise in value with inflation. For poorer people, it's a huge problem, their wages don't catch up quickly, their savings lose value.
Importers aren't really paying, it's the customers paying, because they're charging more. Now, maybe they'll make less profit in order to sell their goods, or maybe they just sell elsewhere.
New manufacturing plants doesn't mean the US will do more manufacturing. In order to make lots of money, you need to be exporting, difficult if other countries are not going to buy.
The problem with putting $100,000 onto the visa is that it'll take until their visa runs out. Say you run a company that needs such people, do you A) hire Americans or B) relocate or just have people working in other countries?
but unemployment is consistently rising by 0.1% a month right now.