Weather disasters over the last year likely due to record ocean warming
- Thread starter Crick
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- #43
You gave yourself a science education without textbooks or teachers? I bet that was effective.
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- #45
Yes I did read it and I have already shown that you often do not. So, where is the expert opinion that says reanalysis is modeling and and the evidence that any falsification has taken place?
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Here you go, chapter and verse. Problems with your models? Reanalyse using a different one. Voila. The results you wanted are merely a reanalysis away.
"• How can delays, inertia, and uncertainty in models be handled?
To quantify the impact of uncertainties inherent in climate variables, the evaluation of Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 CMIP models developed to forecast climate change (Taylor et al., 2012; Eyring et al., 2016), by using Monte Carlo simulations can be suitable (Mallick et al., 2018). The most important task ahead is the integrated development of targeted solutions for designing, evaluating and integrating simulation studies to quantify uncertainty and risk in the light of environmental and social data (Climate Change, 2014). For this reason DKRZ carried out extensive simulations with the Earth system model MPI-ESM with respect to the CMIP5 project and the IPCC AR5, presenting a selection of visualizations for different key climate variables and for the different scenarios (Klimarechenzentrum, 2021)."
Frontiers | The Applicability of Big Data in Climate Change Research: The Importance of System of Systems Thinking
The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the interrelationship between data science and climate studies, as well as describes how sustainability cl...
www.frontiersin.org
2022's Series of Disasters Could Be Linked to a New Ocean Record
For the fourth year in a row, the oceans are hotter than ever. "If we keep breaking records, it's kind of like a broken record," said one researcher.gizmodo.com
In 2022, the world's oceans increased their heat content by TWENTY TIMES the total energy usage of the human race over the same period.
- Thread starter
- #48
That does not say that reanalysis is modeling. That says you can run a model multiple times cycling uncertain inputs through their likely ranges and then average the results to assess their impact. That is most assuredly NOT what was done here.Here you go, chapter and verse. Problems with your models? Reanalyse using a different one. Voila. The results you wanted are merely a reanalysis away.
"• How can delays, inertia, and uncertainty in models be handled?
To quantify the impact of uncertainties inherent in climate variables, the evaluation of Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 CMIP models developed to forecast climate change (Taylor et al., 2012; Eyring et al., 2016), by using Monte Carlo simulations can be suitable (Mallick et al., 2018). The most important task ahead is the integrated development of targeted solutions for designing, evaluating and integrating simulation studies to quantify uncertainty and risk in the light of environmental and social data (Climate Change, 2014). For this reason DKRZ carried out extensive simulations with the Earth system model MPI-ESM with respect to the CMIP5 project and the IPCC AR5, presenting a selection of visualizations for different key climate variables and for the different scenarios (Klimarechenzentrum, 2021)."
Frontiers | The Applicability of Big Data in Climate Change Research: The Importance of System of Systems Thinking
The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the interrelationship between data science and climate studies, as well as describes how sustainability cl...
Except they routinely tune out natural variations and have water vapor feedback backwards.
Sunsettommy
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- Mar 19, 2018
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2022's Series of Disasters Could Be Linked to a New Ocean Record
For the fourth year in a row, the oceans are hotter than ever. "If we keep breaking records, it's kind of like a broken record," said one researcher.
In 2022, the world's oceans increased their heat content by TWENTY TIMES the total energy usage of the human race over the same period.
Notice he is focusing on a SINGLE year while there is a lot of decades long or longer DECLINING trends this warmist/alarmist whacko is ignoring:
===
Storminess has not gone up, and there’s been no increase in hurricane strength or frequency … no “emergency” there. First, the strength.
And here is the global hurricane frequency, both for all hurricanes and for the strongest hurricanes.
The 12 months from April 2021 to May 2022 have seen close to the fewest major hurricanes in more than 40 years.
And there is much longer evidence to back that up. Here are the records of all hurricanes (left) and major hurricanes (right) that came ashore in the US in the last 150 years … NO increase. SOURCE: Nature magazine.
And here are the numbers of Pacific typhoons (hurricanes) from the Japanese Meteorological Agency.
Here are landfalling typhoons (hurricanes) in China. Like the majority of the world areas, we’re seeing fewer landfalls in China.
And here are a century and a half of records of the number of landfalling hurricanes in Florida
Finally, here are the declining numbers of both strong and average cyclones in Australian waters, from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).
===
There has been no global increase in the number of wildfires … here’s the NASA satellite data.
Here’s Australia …
And here’s the data from Canada …
Plenty more in the link you keep avoiding because you are too brainwashed to handle it.
LINK
======
Then this recent revelation you will ignore since it scares you too much:
2022 Global Wide Hurricane Season Ends with Weakest Storm Levels of the Last 42 Years
LINK
- Thread starter
- #56
Your linked data make a good case for no increase in hurricane activity from global warming, but there are hurricane parameters that show an impact from increasing warmer sea surface temperatures (SST)
According to the total annual ACE Index, cyclone intensity has risen noticeably over the past 20 years, and eight of the 10 most active years since 1950 have occurred since the mid-1990s (see Figure 2). Relatively high levels of cyclone activity were also seen during the 1950s and 1960s.Aug 1, 2022
www.epa.gov
Sea surface temperature, which drives hurricane development, powering storms, has steadily risen
www.epa.gov
Notice that spike in temperature just after 1940, a point in time when atmospheric temperatures were stagnant or even falling.
Several records have been sent in rapid storm development. What would become Super Typhoon Noru, approaching the Phillipines, went from a 50 knot storm to a Category 5 (>150 kts) cyclone in less than 24 hours. Hurricane Ian, late this last September, was the deadliest storm to strike Florida since 1935 (not reflected in your graphic, of course) and produced a storm surge of 12-18 feet, devastating the low-lying Florida communities it struck. Ian's development met the NOAA criteria for "rapid intensification" its winds gaining 35mph in less than 24 hours.
Hurricane Maria (or PR fame) intensified 70 mph in 18 hours and set a record for Atlantic hurricane intensification.
Highly Unusual Upward Trends in Rapidly Intensifying Atlantic Hurricanes Blamed on Global Warming Read this
According to the total annual ACE Index, cyclone intensity has risen noticeably over the past 20 years, and eight of the 10 most active years since 1950 have occurred since the mid-1990s (see Figure 2). Relatively high levels of cyclone activity were also seen during the 1950s and 1960s.Aug 1, 2022
Climate Change Indicators: Tropical Cyclone Activity | US EPA
This indicator examines the frequency, intensity, and duration of hurricanes and other tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico.
www.epa.gov
Sea surface temperature, which drives hurricane development, powering storms, has steadily risen
Climate Change Indicators: Sea Surface Temperature | US EPA
This indicator describes global trends in sea surface temperature.
www.epa.gov
Several records have been sent in rapid storm development. What would become Super Typhoon Noru, approaching the Phillipines, went from a 50 knot storm to a Category 5 (>150 kts) cyclone in less than 24 hours. Hurricane Ian, late this last September, was the deadliest storm to strike Florida since 1935 (not reflected in your graphic, of course) and produced a storm surge of 12-18 feet, devastating the low-lying Florida communities it struck. Ian's development met the NOAA criteria for "rapid intensification" its winds gaining 35mph in less than 24 hours.
Hurricane Maria (or PR fame) intensified 70 mph in 18 hours and set a record for Atlantic hurricane intensification.
Highly Unusual Upward Trends in Rapidly Intensifying Atlantic Hurricanes Blamed on Global Warming Read this
|
| Figure 1. VIIRS image of Super Typhoon Haiyan at 1619 UTC November 7, 2013. At the time, Haiyan was about to make landfall near Tacloban in the Philippines as the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone in world recorded history, with 190 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA. |
- Banned
- #57
You stupid shit.2022's Series of Disasters Could Be Linked to a New Ocean Record
For the fourth year in a row, the oceans are hotter than ever. "If we keep breaking records, it's kind of like a broken record," said one researcher.
In 2022, the world's oceans increased their heat content by TWENTY TIMES the total energy usage of the human race over the same period.
You uneducated Moon Bat idiots think that if anything bad happens it is a cause of that Man Made Global Climate Change that you religiously believe in.
However, if it gets cold then that is just normal weather.
We have had three years in a row of la Nina and that is because of cooler than normal Pacific ocean temperatures. Three years in a row is very unusual.
You are a fucking idiot.
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- Banned
- #58
You idiot.Your linked data make a good case for no increase in hurricane activity from global warming, but there are hurricane parameters that show an impact from increasing warmer sea surface temperatures (SST)
According to the total annual ACE Index, cyclone intensity has risen noticeably over the past 20 years, and eight of the 10 most active years since 1950 have occurred since the mid-1990s (see Figure 2). Relatively high levels of cyclone activity were also seen during the 1950s and 1960s.Aug 1, 2022
Climate Change Indicators: Tropical Cyclone Activity | US EPA
This indicator examines the frequency, intensity, and duration of hurricanes and other tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico.
Sea surface temperature, which drives hurricane development, powering storms, has steadily risen
Notice that spike in temperature just after 1940, a point in time when atmospheric temperatures were stagnant or even falling.Climate Change Indicators: Sea Surface Temperature | US EPA
This indicator describes global trends in sea surface temperature.
Several records have been sent in rapid storm development. What would become Super Typhoon Noru, approaching the Phillipines, went from a 50 knot storm to a Category 5 (>150 kts) cyclone in less than 24 hours. Hurricane Ian, late this last September, was the deadliest storm to strike Florida since 1935 (not reflected in your graphic, of course) and produced a storm surge of 12-18 feet, devastating the low-lying Florida communities it struck. Ian's development met the NOAA criteria for "rapid intensification" its winds gaining 35mph in less than 24 hours.
Hurricane Maria (or PR fame) intensified 70 mph in 18 hours and set a record for Atlantic hurricane intensification.
Highly Unusual Upward Trends in Rapidly Intensifying Atlantic Hurricanes Blamed on Global Warming Read this
Figure 1. VIIRS image of Super Typhoon Haiyan at 1619 UTC November 7, 2013. At the time, Haiyan was about to make
landfall near Tacloban in the Philippines as the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone in world recorded history, with
190 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.
Hurricanes and typhoons happens somewhere every year, you moron. Sometimes they are Cat 1 and other times Cat 5. There is no idication that hurricanes are more intense now than they been in the past. Your silly AGW religion have you believing bullshit fake science.
The worst hurricane to ever hit Tampa Florida was when James Buchanan was President of the US.
The worst one to hit Miami was in the 1920s, almost 100 years ago.
- Thread starter
- #59
I bet if we had good data going back a million years, we'd find there were some humdingers.
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