Nearly 60 percent of the historians and political scientists in a 2006 Siena College survey rated Bush's presidency a failure and two-thirds said he did not have a realistic chance of improving his standing.
A 2010 Siena ranking of presidential scholars rated Bush as one of the nation's five worst presidents. A similar 2009 C-SPAN ranking put Bush in the bottom eight.
It is certainly possible that years of reflection and a reinterpretation of his presidency could end up putting Bush in a more positive light, but there's no avoiding the reality that his decision to go to war in Iraq and policies of fiscal recklessness led to huge problems for the country. These are problems the country may still be reeling from as historians give Bush their second look
A lot of these same historians said that Reagan would be disregarded, and he really has a pretty good rep today.
There are four things Bush should be judged on.
9-11
Iraq
Katrina
The Great Recession
9/11, he provided strong leadership, and history will look at him kindly on that, despite what the Bush Derangement Crowd says.
Iraq is more dubious, because he was the guy left holding the bag on that one. (Democrats like to forget they all voted for the war resolution and some of them had been banging the war drum for a decade.) I think how relevent it will be is if there is another war in the future that is bloodier, then Iraq won't seem like such a big deal. (Just like Gulf War I isn't seen as a big deal now.) It also depends on how the Iraqi government acts in the future. there is not going to be a "helicopter on the rooftop" moment in Iraq.
Katrina pretty much did in his presidency in real time. Even his own aides admit that no one was interested in anything the President had to say after Katrina. However, Katrina has largely faded from memory today, and I think no one will remember it in a decade.
That leaves the Great Recession. I think this is where Bush will be treated kindly, because he didn't listen to the idealogues on this one. He took quick action to prop up the banking industry (although some dubious actions were involved) and probably prevented the Great Recession from becoming the Greater Depression. Also because most of the pain of the Great Recession occurred on Obama's watch, Obama owns as much of it as Bush does.
Overall- a President's greatness is based on how he handled crisis in real time, and which presidents bookended him.
Lincoln is the greatest president by most estimations, because he handled our worst crisis (the only one that threated to END the United States) and because he was bookended by the two worst presidents (One who allowed a civil war and one who was impeached).
What Bush's greatest out in history is going to be is that he was bookended by Clinton and Obama, neither of whom are anything to write home about.
