US GDP grows at 3% Trump wins againGDP is growing at 3%

[Marener]

You get that 2025 ain't over yet. FFS, give credit where credit is due instead of whining about your failed POTUS and his keepers.

Doesn't change the fact that consumer spending growth is a lot lower now than under the "failed" POTUS.

 

[Independent thinker]

GDP is growing at 3% inflation is down tariffs are a good thing

But but but but but, orange man bad.

 

[Winston]

You get that 2025 ain't over yet. FFS, give credit where credit is due instead of whining about your failed POTUS and his keepers.

Damn Skippy it ain't over yet. I mean who is to know about the tariffs with TACO Trump. But I see inflation heating up. Companies are going to forestall price increases as long as they can, Q1 and Q2, inventory purchases, clearly indicates as much. But by Q4, the holiday shopping season, prices are going to start reflecting both tariffs and inventory control. Supply is going to be an issue. What will be your excuse then?

 

[Meathead]

Damn Skippy it ain't over yet. I mean who is to know about the tariffs with TACO Trump. But I see inflation heating up. Companies are going to forestall price increases as long as they can, Q1 and Q2, inventory purchases, clearly indicates as much. But by Q4, the holiday shopping season, prices are going to start reflecting both tariffs and inventory control. Supply is going to be an issue. What will be your excuse then?

Sorry if I don't take some hack on USMB seriously. Nothing personal.

 

[Hafar1014]

Damn Skippy it ain't over yet. I mean who is to know about the tariffs with TACO Trump. But I see inflation heating up. Companies are going to forestall price increases as long as they can, Q1 and Q2, inventory purchases, clearly indicates as much. But by Q4, the holiday shopping season, prices are going to start reflecting both tariffs and inventory control. Supply is going to be an issue. What will be your excuse then?

Its over democrats just dont know it yet because they cant face reality. 4th quarter is sale time. Discounts competition move the inventory. It will be even better. One wonders why democrats hope for America to suffer

 

[SeaMajor7]

Damn Skippy it ain't over yet. I mean who is to know about the tariffs with TACO Trump. But I see inflation heating up. Companies are going to forestall price increases as long as they can, Q1 and Q2, inventory purchases, clearly indicates as much. But by Q4, the holiday shopping season, prices are going to start reflecting both tariffs and inventory control. Supply is going to be an issue. What will be your excuse then?

Your TACO narrative is completely FAKE, Mr. Smith.

 

[Marener]

Its over democrats just dont know it yet because they cant face reality. 4th quarter is sale time. Discounts competition move the inventory. It will be even better. One wonders why democrats hope for America to suffer

The data is seasonally adjusted genius.

 

[Nostra]

Your TACO narrative is completely FAKE, Mr. Smith.

Trump should break out a Taco and start eating it after every WIN he announces.

 

[Rawley]

Damn Skippy it ain't over yet. I mean who is to know about the tariffs with TACO Trump. But I see inflation heating up. Companies are going to forestall price increases as long as they can, Q1 and Q2, inventory purchases, clearly indicates as much. But by Q4, the holiday shopping season, prices are going to start reflecting both tariffs and inventory control. Supply is going to be an issue. What will be your excuse then?

Let's talk Q1 '26, OK?

 

[Winston]

Its over democrats just dont know it yet because they cant face reality. 4th quarter is sale time. Discounts competition move the inventory. It will be even better. One wonders why democrats hope for America to suffer

Look, when you have millions of dollars under management you really can't afford to live in La La Land. What ******* inventory dumbass? I mean from the report, companies front loaded the inventory in anticipation of tariffs. They cut way back in Q2. I mean it is right there, in the numbers. What do you think Q3 is going to look like? Sure, consumer spending will probably be up, it is vacation time. Already, even in Q2, entertainment was the primary driver, outside of health care spending and insurance. And both of those ought to tell you something.

I figure we roll in to Q4 with inventory levels at historical lows. There goes your discounts. I think consumers are going to be faced with shortages, not discounts, and that will all be on Trump. What will be your excuse then? I really figure shit is not going to hit the fan until Q2 of 2026, right before the midterms, and it will be ugly. Long the market now, short it then, make a flippin fortune.

 

[Hafar1014]

Look, when you have millions of dollars under management you really can't afford to live in La La Land. What ******* inventory dumbass? I mean from the report, companies front loaded the inventory in anticipation of tariffs. They cut way back in Q2. I mean it is right there, in the numbers. What do you think Q3 is going to look like? Sure, consumer spending will probably be up, it is vacation time. Already, even in Q2, entertainment was the primary driver, outside of health care spending and insurance. And both of those ought to tell you something.

I figure we roll in to Q4 with inventory levels at historical lows. There goes your discounts. I think consumers are going to be faced with shortages, not discounts, and that will all be on Trump. What will be your excuse then? I really figure shit is not going to hit the fan until Q2 of 2026, right before the midterms, and it will be ugly. Long the market now, short it then, make a flippin fortune.

Why do you want America to fail

 

[Winston]

Let's talk Q1 '26, OK?

No problem. Business investment down, consumer spending still climbing. Inventory levels at historical lows. Inflation beginning to spike, over three percent. Fed rate cut, not going to happen. It might happen before then, but that will just throw more gas on the fire. Energy prices, gas prices, holy shit, not going to be pretty. For energy, like power, look for at least a 15% increase. It is all in the big,beautiful bill. And gas, you won't see a two as the first number anymore. All that is going to put a hit on disposable income.

Like I said in my previous post, Q2 2026 is when the rubber is going to hit the road. And you can take that with a grain of salt, that is fine. But I have a track record that spans three decades. And my experience monitoring and predicting the markets goes back more than fifty years. Yes, I am a weirdo. Eight years old, graphing stock prices, evaluating stocks with EPS and Dividend Yield. Going to Economic camp, not band camp. Working for the OMB under Reagan. An early adopter, Econometrics. That is me.

 

[kyzr]

Didn't stop him from starting a trade war on February 1st.

So what? Until the inventory was sold down and new items made the new pricing wouldn't have hit until the April dip.
NFW the 1st quarter was on Trump.
Trump wasn't sworn in until late January, so the 1st quarter is Biden's.

 

[Captain Caveman]

Yes, inflation is indeed coming down in the US, but prices remain high. The annual inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has cooled from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 2.7% in June 2025, according to Bankrate. This means that while prices are still increasing, they are doing so at a slower pace than before. However, it's important to note that prices, overall, remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels. Google

And a GDP link

Edit - doesn't matter, someone else provided it.

 

[Marener]

So what? Until the inventory was sold down and new items made the new pricing wouldn't have hit until the April dip.
NFW the 1st quarter was on Trump.

Not talking about pricing. We are talking about heavy investments in inventory with imported goods before the tariffs hit, which sunk the GDP that quarter.

Claiming he didn’t affect Q1 is absurd.

 

[IM2]

Given the fact that Trump inherited a record economy, he cannot be credited for this. This is just like his last presidency. Talk about this next year at this time.

 

[AntonToo]

Damn Skippy it ain't over yet. I mean who is to know about the tariffs with TACO Trump. But I see inflation heating up. Companies are going to forestall price increases as long as they can, Q1 and Q2, inventory purchases, clearly indicates as much. But by Q4, the holiday shopping season, prices are going to start reflecting both tariffs and inventory control. Supply is going to be an issue. What will be your excuse then?

Yep all this bias confirming musing is mostly pointless, our vast economy simply doesn't move that fast.

 

[kyzr]

Not talking about pricing. We are talking about heavy investments in inventory with imported goods before the tariffs hit, which sunk the GDP that quarter. Claiming he didn’t affect Q1 is absurd.

That argument makes no sense.
The US economy is 70% merchandising, so buying more stuff has to add to the GDP, not hurt it.
Claiming Bidenomics didn't affect the 1st quarter is also absurd.

 

[Marener]

That argument makes no sense.
The US economy is 70% merchandising, so buying more stuff has to add to the GDP, not hurt it.

Imports don’t add to the GDP since they’re not made here. They subtract from it.

 

[Mac1958]

The best and most accomplished economists can't tell you where the economy will be in three months, once the tariffs have fully worked their way through the system. But hardcore partisan ideologues can.



We might be fine. Guesses are just guesses.