Coal-Fired Electricity Generation in the United States and Future Outlook
Coal-Fired Electricity Generation in the United States and Future Outlook Coal-fired power plants, long the mainstay of the electric generating fleet, have been retiring in record numbers over the past several years and more are planning to close in the years ahead. This is a dramatic reversal for what was once the leading source of electricity production in the country. Coal plants are generally large facilities designed to run around-the-clock and throughout the year. Their output of electricity accounted for 51 percent of total U.S. electricity generation on average from 1949 through 2005. However, since that time, coal’s share of generation has declined at a steady clip (see Figure 1). 1 In 2016, U.S. coal plants accounted for just 30 percent of total generation output, according to government figures—2016 was a year of record low natural gas prices in the U.S. contributing to the decline in coal generation. For the first time, in 2016, natural gas was the leading source of electricity generation (34 percent of total generation), reflecting an on-going trend that is reshaping the nation’s generation mix.
This issue brief details M.J. Bradley’s latest tracking of coal plant retirement announcements, including case studies of recent plant closures. The issue brief also discusses the factors that are leading companies to shutter their operations. There is no single factor that explains all the recent closures, rather it has been a combination of factors that is causing plants to close. Other generators, such as natural gas and nuclear, have also been facing similar economic pressures, suggesting that the causes are by no means unique to the coal fleet.
The issue brief also includes a discussion of the current outlook for coal generators. In the past two years (2015 and 2016), the coal sector was particularly hard hit by a combination of warm weather and record low gas prices. There have been some signs of improvement for the industry in the past several months with increased coal deliveries. However, there have also been further retirement announcements. Since January, about 10 large coal plants have announced plans to close. The brief concludes with a discussion of the potential reliability implications of coal plant retirements.
https://www.mjbradley.com/sites/default/files/MJBAcoalretirementissuebrief.pdf
Going, going, soon to be gone. Even gas and nuclear are feeling the effects of the low costs of renewables.
