Unprecedented Climate? Really?

[code1211]

Now Code, you just explain that to Swiss Re and Munich Re. And, yes, they do factor in inflation and population increase. Were you ever to bother to read what they have to say you would know that. Not that you would ever admit to it. You have your political agenda, and it does not yield to reality.

Alrighty. So your thesis is that there is not a whole bunch more expensive stuff on the coast lines? That the area around Pearl harbor is just as built up today as it was in 1850? San Francisco? Atlantic City? Houston? Indonisia? Japan? Philipines? Miami Beach?

If your answer to any of those is that the build up is not occurring and accelerating up to the recent world wide recession, you're delusional.

The natives in the Philipines probably did not insure their grass huts in the hills, but the Hotel and resort owners who build on the beach probably do.

Do you never subject anything to the "what else must be true for that to be true" test? If you would, it would answer many questions for you rather than just parroting the disjointed drivel of the experts who operate in their own little vacuum.

 

[Old Rocks]

Turbulent times ahead in Europe | Swiss Re - Leading Global Reinsurer

Turbulent times ahead in Europe - Climate change will lead to more frequent winter storms Global warming and winter storms in Europe, repercussions for reinsurance and what Swiss Re is doing to address the problem (pricing storm risk and building resilience)
Climate change will lead not only to more frequent but also to more violent winter storms in Europe, especially Northern Europe, over the long term. The result will be higher economic losses. Along the North Sea coast, average annual losses from surge events are expected to more than quadruple from 0.6 billion to 2.6 billion EUR toward the end of this century. At least part of this loss burden will be borne by the (re)insurance industry, according to a study conducted by Swiss Re in cooperation with the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurich. The findings underscore the benefit of transparent in-house models developed by reinsurers such as Swiss Re when it comes to pricing storm risk and managing expected losses from future storm events.
(Re)insurers use probabilistic models to quantify the impact of storms: these models allow us to determine premiums and loss expectations for events where historical data are scarce. The use of our models combined with climate models helps us understand how the changing climate will influence the financial impact of similar events in the future, giving us the basis to adjust pricing if necessary.
Swiss Re started modelling winter storm risk about 20 years ago and we have been improving our models ever since. Our winter storm model can run thousands of probabilistic storms, storm scenarios that are artificial but based on historical data and climatology, across a client’s insurance portfolio and quantify the amount and the frequency of the losses incurred.
The study of Swiss Re and ETH showed a clear trend: in addition to intensifying storms, the storm paths will shift further northwards, resulting in a higher storm frequency and higher losses in the regions affected. For the period 1975-2085, for instance, we expect losses from winter storms to increase in real terms by 16 to 68 percent, depending on the region.

 

[Old Rocks]

Munich Re - Focus topics climate change

2. December 2008

Munich Re to sign and adopt "the climate principles"Munich Re has joined with the Climate Group and other financial institutions to launch a new initiative that will be the first comprehensive framework to the financial sector’s response to climate change. The new code titled The Climate Principles aims to point out the vital role financial organisations have to play – as lender, investor, insurer and reinsurer – in the move to a low carbon economy. The signatories aim to express commitment both to manage their own operational climate impact as well as to embed climate change considerations into their business strategy in order to understand and manage the risks, opportunities and adaption needs relating to climate change.

The Climate Principles were developed by the Climate Group, a non-profit organization, in dialogue with more than 20 financial corporations. Beside Munich Re further signatories and adopters are Credit Agricole, HSBC, Standard Chartered and Swiss Re.

"Munich Re has been concerning itself with the consequences of climate change for more than three decades. As a global reinsurer we consequently promote solutions, both in our own business operations and products as well as in the international debate. Therefore we welcome the climate principles as a significant framework for the financial industry", says Professor Peter Höppe, Head of Geo Risks Research at Munich Re. "Apart from risk management, we see large opportunities for us in addressing the substantial demand for insurance-based solutions stemming from the very different strategies necessary to mitigate and adapt to climate change and the ensuing challenges."

 

[Old Rocks]

Of course the denialists will dispute all that Swiss Re and Munich Re state, even that their data has anything to do with reality. However, the graphs in Munich Re's paper on this come from many sources, and agree with the scientific data that the climatologists have presented.

http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/26/10/38155568.pdf

 

[daveman]

Why it seems that severe weather is “getting worse” when the data shows otherwise – a historical perspective | Watts Up With That?

 

[code1211]

Turbulent times ahead in Europe | Swiss Re - Leading Global Reinsurer

Turbulent times ahead in Europe - Climate change will lead to more frequent winter storms Global warming and winter storms in Europe, repercussions for reinsurance and what Swiss Re is doing to address the problem (pricing storm risk and building resilience)
Climate change will lead not only to more frequent but also to more violent winter storms in Europe, especially Northern Europe, over the long term. The result will be higher economic losses. Along the North Sea coast, average annual losses from surge events are expected to more than quadruple from 0.6 billion to 2.6 billion EUR toward the end of this century. At least part of this loss burden will be borne by the (re)insurance industry, according to a study conducted by Swiss Re in cooperation with the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurich. The findings underscore the benefit of transparent in-house models developed by reinsurers such as Swiss Re when it comes to pricing storm risk and managing expected losses from future storm events.
(Re)insurers use probabilistic models to quantify the impact of storms: these models allow us to determine premiums and loss expectations for events where historical data are scarce. The use of our models combined with climate models helps us understand how the changing climate will influence the financial impact of similar events in the future, giving us the basis to adjust pricing if necessary.Swiss Re started modelling winter storm risk about 20 years ago and we have been improving our models ever since. Our winter storm model can run thousands of probabilistic storms, storm scenarios that are artificial but based on historical data and climatology, across a client’s insurance portfolio and quantify the amount and the frequency of the losses incurred.
The study of Swiss Re and ETH showed a clear trend: in addition to intensifying storms, the storm paths will shift further northwards, resulting in a higher storm frequency and higher losses in the regions affected. For the period 1975-2085, for instance, we expect losses from winter storms to increase in real terms by 16 to 68 percent, depending on the region.

For those who don't understand the difference between actual events and imagined scenarios, I've highlighted in red the words that reveal that none of this has actually happened in the real world.

Is there a motivation for this delusional forecast of events? Maybe the increase of the premiums?

 

[code1211]

Of course the denialists will dispute all that Swiss Re and Munich Re state, even that their data has anything to do with reality. However, the graphs in Munich Re's paper on this come from many sources, and agree with the scientific data that the climatologists have presented.

http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/26/10/38155568.pdf

You are saying that that the reinsurance folks are concerned that they will have to pay out more if things get worse.

In other words, you are saying that things have not gotten worse.

You are calling a group of people that are witnessing nothing happening denialists because the cannot see what is not there.

What do your imaginary friends say about this?

 

[Old Rocks]

Put it any way you want, Code. Northeastern Australia, Texas, Mississippi and Missouri rivers, Russia, Thailand, Central America, and many more weather related disasters in just the last 24 months. Not an artifact of reporting, nor something that the reinsurance people can ignore.

And, had you bothered to read their articles, you would have found that they are paying out, right now, a great deal of money for these disasters. In fact, enough money that they and the whole insurance industry are going to re-structure how the deal with weather disaster insurance.

 

[wirebender]

Put it any way you want, Code. Northeastern Australia, Texas, Mississippi and Missouri rivers, Russia, Thailand, Central America, and many more weather related disasters in just the last 24 months. Not an artifact of reporting, nor something that the reinsurance people can ignore.

And, had you bothered to read their articles, you would have found that they are paying out, right now, a great deal of money for these disasters. In fact, enough money that they and the whole insurance industry are going to re-structure how the deal with weather disaster insurance.

They are paying out more because more people are affected, not because more disasters are happening. Back in the good old days, people had enough sense not to build homes, much less communities, on flood plains, or on fault lines and losing beachfront property to erosion is nothing new.

 

[Old Rocks]

So you say that, and they state differantly. Oh, who to believe?

And every other year, the Missouri and Mississippi rivers are in flood for the whole of the summer, also?

You dumb asses would deny what anyone can see with their own eyes.

 

[wirebender]

So you say that, and they state differantly. Oh, who to believe?

Believe the census figures for any particular area rocks. Do you really believe that no more people live on coastal areas now than in the past? Do you believe that there are no communities built on flood plains today that were not there in the past?

You are so bent on looking for disaster that you simply make it up when you can't actually find it.

 

[code1211]

So you say that, and they state differantly. Oh, who to believe?And every other year, the Missouri and Mississippi rivers are in flood for the whole of the summer, also?

You dumb asses would deny what anyone can see with their own eyes.

You don't seem to have a basic understanding of the language. He said that there are more people building in more risky areas.

You say that the insurance companies disagree with this and yet what they are saying is the exact same thing.