Ukraine Preparing to Target Russia's Black Sea Fleet.

[Donald H]

Ukraine Preparing to Target Russian Black Sea Fleet With Western Weapons - News From Antiwar.com

Ukraine's in talks on where it can use Western arms

news.antiwar.com

This is in the negotiation stage right now, for the purpose of gaining permission from the countries providing the missiles. It's also being considered by Russia on whether it's an allowable escalation of the war.

Each escalation now appears to be met with counter escalations once agreement is reached on what can be permitted by both sides.

What a strange stage managed war this has become, due to the MAD deterrent!

Opinions? Predictions?

 

[Bleipriester]

Russia could be forced to mobilize the military.

 

[ZZ PUPPS]

The West won't authorize it. They fear an energy supply cutoff as a predictable response.

 

[Donald H]

Russia could be forced to mobilize the military.

Is that likely? It seems that this war's events aren't predictable and a large military force could be vulnerable in ways that are not historic.

In fact, both sides appear to have the ability to wreak unlimited destruction on the other side with impunity.

The only thing preventing that is mutually agreed upon limitations of the war.

Mutually agreed upon by Russia and who? Ukraine is expressing wishes for there to be no limitations.

 

[Bleipriester]

Is that likely? It seems that this war's events aren't predictable and a large military force could be vulnerable in ways that are not historic.

In fact, both sides appear to have the ability to wreak unlimited destruction on the other side with impunity.

The only thing preventing that is mutually agreed upon limitations of the war.

Mutually agreed upon by Russia and who? Ukraine is expressing wishes for there to be no limitations.

I don´t think that Ukraine is acting on its own. Attacking the Crimea or the Black Sea fleet holds no military benefits for Ukraine, will only provoke more Russian war efforts.
It could be because attacking land forces with their inferior artillery doesn´t yield adequate results or because Ukraine´s masters want more escalation. They want Russia to fight in a war of attrition, Ukraine doesn´t count.

 

[Toro]

 

[Toro]

Russia has moved its fleet to Sevastapol.

 

[Bleipriester]

That post will turn the tide. For sure...

 

[para bellum]

Russia has moved its fleet to Sevastapol.

I think you mean from Sevastapol? The phibs were moved to Novorossiysk.

3 SSK's and 3 FFG's remain in Sevastapol along with various smaller vessels.

They've added a bunch of defenses around the Kerch Bridge, which is out of reach for Ukraine at the moment.

The pumping stations for the Crimea canal are not out of reach though. Taking them out would wreak havoc on Russian logistics because it would force them to supply water to Crimea by truck and rail. Every truck and railcar moving water to Crimea is one that isn't moving war materiel to the Donbas...

 

[ESay]

Ukraine may attack Russian Black Sea targets as a retaliation measure if Russia continues to carry out the attacks as were in Kremenchuk and Vinnitsia.

 

[para bellum]

Ukraine may attack Russian Black Sea targets as a retaliation measure if Russia continues to carry out the attacks as were in Kremenchuk and Vinnitsia.

I would add that Ukraine is free to attack Black Sea targets (and have done so many times), whether retaliatory or otherwise.

Ukraine has a fundamental right to self-defense. The B.S.F. is participating in the conflict and that makes the fleet and it's bases legitimate military targets.

 

[ESay]

I would add that Ukraine is free to attack Black Sea targets (and have done so many times), whether retaliatory or otherwise.

Ukraine has a fundamental right to self-defense. The B.S.F. is participating in the conflict and that makes the fleet and it's bases legitimate military targets.

Without a doubt it is a legitimate target. But along with that, two questions arise - is Ukraine really capable to reach bases in Sevastopol and what steps will Russia make if Ukraine really does it.

 

[para bellum]

Without a doubt it is a legitimate target. But along with that, two questions arise - is Ukraine really capable to reach bases in Sevastopol and what steps will Russia make if Ukraine really does it.

Ukraine has nothing to hit Sevastopol or the Kerch Bridge at the moment, and the harbor is protected from divers by dolphins, so an underwater attack would be difficult.

But the pumping stations for the Crimea canal are within easy reach and not well defended. Without water diverted from the Dnipro, Crimea is just an arid peninsula surrounded by salt water.

Ukraine could take out the pumps and force Russia to supply water overland. That would be a major logistical undertaking that would take away from the weapons, ammunition, and fuel going to the front.

That's the plum target for Ukraine right now, I don't know what's holding them back.

 

[ESay]

Ukraine has nothing to hit Sevastopol or the Kerch Bridge at the moment, and the harbor is protected from divers by dolphins, so an underwater attack would be difficult.

But the pumping stations for the Crimea canal are within easy reach and not well defended. Without water diverted from the Dnipro, Crimea is just an arid peninsula surrounded by salt water.

Ukraine could take out the pumps and force Russia to supply water overland. That would be a major logistical undertaking that would take away from the weapons, ammunition, and fuel going to the front.

That's the plum target for Ukraine right now, I don't know what's holding them back.

Ukraine didn't supply water to Crimea since 2016 (if I remember correctly). It significantly hurted their agricultural sector and caused some water shortages in utility services, but I have never heard the Russians had to supply water overland.

 

[Baron]

Opinions? Predictions?

As long USA is run by a senile idiot anything is possible
Russians can send unstoppable nukes to Yellowstone and USA is gone

 

[Bleipriester]

Ukraine may attack Russian Black Sea targets as a retaliation measure if Russia continues to carry out the attacks as were in Kremenchuk and Vinnitsia.

Your nazi ***** have killed enough civilians now. Time to step down.

 

[para bellum]

Ukraine didn't supply water to Crimea since 2016 (if I remember correctly). It significantly hurted their agricultural sector and caused some water shortages in utility services, but I have never heard the Russians had to supply water overland.

They said Crimea gets 85% of the fresh water from the canal, so damming it took the irrigation water away from the agricultural segment and created shortages all across the spectrum, including drinking water that had to be trucked into some towns in eastern Crimea.

The dam was a major target for Putin, and restoring the water to Crimea was one of his promises to the people in Crimea. They blew up the dam on the second day of the war- that tells you what kind of importance it has to Putin.

The reason Mariupol and Mykolaiv have no water is because Russia controls the pumping stations and pipelines. Russia is willing to use water as a weapon, so should Ukraine.

At the very least it would force Russia to make some decisions between trucking ammunition to the front, or trucking water to Crimea. Crimea went without that water for 6 years, yes- but there was no full-scale invasion going on. Since trucks and rail logistics are Russia's weak spot, and water to Crimea is politically important to Putin, that makes those pumps a good target on both counts.

 

[ESay]

They said Crimea gets 85% of the fresh water from the canal, so damming it took the irrigation water away from the agricultural segment and created shortages all across the spectrum, including drinking water that had to be trucked into some towns in eastern Crimea.

The dam was a major target for Putin, and restoring the water to Crimea was one of his promises to the people in Crimea. They blew up the dam on the second day of the war- that tells you what kind of importance it has to Putin.

The reason Mariupol and Mykolaiv have no water is because Russia controls the pumping stations and pipelines. Russia is willing to use water as a weapon, so should Ukraine.

At the very least it would force Russia to make some decisions between trucking ammunition to the front, or trucking water to Crimea. Crimea went without that water for 6 years, yes- but there was no full-scale invasion going on. Since trucks and rail logistics are Russia's weak spot, and water to Crimea is politically important to Putin, that makes those pumps a good target on both counts.

Well, I don't exclude that Ukraine may attack pumping stations of North-Crimea canal. But I doubt that is anywhere near prime targets now.

The main priority is Dnipro west bank in Kherson and their military and logistics infrastructure there.

Also Kharkiv, especially Russian positions to the north of the city.

 

[para bellum]

Well, I don't exclude that Ukraine may attack pumping stations of North-Crimea canal. But I doubt that is anywhere near prime targets now.

Well they did hit did targets at the hydro plant at Nova Khakovka again yesterday, but I don't know what was destroyed. That's twice in two days.

The main priority is Dnipro west bank in Kherson and their military and logistics infrastructure there.

The Antovosky Bridge at Kherson has been under fire for two days also, and is reportedly shut down for repairs. It doesn't look that heavily damaged, but repairing it will be a tense job, lol.

That should at least temporarily force resupply from Crimea to go to Nova Khakovka and cross the Dnipro there, and then back down to Kherson on the west bank. A much longer trip with a lot of exposure for the trucks.

If Ukraine takes out the Khakovka bridge, Kherson will be completely cut off and the Russian positions on that side will have their front to the AFU, and their backs to the Dnipro.

Also Kharkiv, especially Russian positions to the north of the city.

Kharkiv has been off my radar the last few days. I've been watching the fighting around the Lysychansk refinery and the Siversk-Bilohorivka area, and the Nova Khakovka-to-Kherson area.

related but unrelated:

Another shakeup in Russian command, the Western Military District commander Aleksandr Zhuravlyov and his chief of staff Aleksey Zavizion are both out, Zhuravlyov is replaced by Lieutenant General Andrey Sychevoy, ex-commander of the 8th Army.

The game of musical chairs with Russian generals continues...

 

[ESay]

Well they did hit did targets at the hydro plant at Nova Khakovka again yesterday, but I don't know what was destroyed. That's twice in two days.

The Antovosky Bridge at Kherson has been under fire for two days also, and is reportedly shut down for repairs. It doesn't look that heavily damaged, but repairing it will be a tense job, lol.

That should at least temporarily force resupply from Crimea to go to Nova Khakovka and cross the Dnipro there, and then back down to Kherson on the west bank. A much longer trip with a lot of exposure for the trucks.

If Ukraine takes out the Khakovka bridge, Kherson will be completely cut off and the Russian positions on that side will have their front to the AFU, and their backs to the Dnipro.

Kharkiv has been off my radar the last few days. I've been watching the fighting around the Lysychansk refinery and the Siversk-Bilohorivka area, and the Nova Khakovka-to-Kherson area.

related but unrelated:

Another shakeup in Russian command, the Western Military District commander Aleksandr Zhuravlyov and his chief of staff Aleksey Zavizion are both out, Zhuravlyov is replaced by Lieutenant General Andrey Sychevoy, ex-commander of the 8th Army.

The game of musical chairs with Russian generals continues...

Yes, the Antonovsky bridge will require a series of strikes to become unoperational. And without a doubt the Russians are readying for that.

The crossing near Nova Kahovka isn't a bridge. It is a dam of Kahovka hydro power station.