- Feb 22, 2017
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We knew the contagion rate was in the 10-15% region for three months now.. Only the hype from CNN and MSDNC was claiming it was higher.Here is some very encouraging news: The cases of two cruise ships prove that COVID-19 is not even close to being 100% contagious. In other words, if you come into contact with an infected person, this does *not* mean you will automatically catch the virus. The cruise ships were the Diamond Princess and the Grand Princess. Well below 50% of the people on those ships caught the virus, even though they were exposed to the virus in a relatively small, confined area.
In the case of the Diamond Princess, 712 out of 3,711 people in the confined environment of the cruise ship caught the virus. That means that only 19.2% of the people who came into contact with the virus caught the virus.
But, let's assume, just for the sake of argument, that half of the Diamond Princess passengers somehow never had contact with any infected persons. That would mean that 712 out of 1850 passengers who were exposed to the virus caught the virus. That would still be a contraction rate of well below 50% (38.5%, to be exact).
Also, among the 712 passengers who caught the virus, 331, or 46.5%, had experienced no symptoms as of the time they were tested. Furthermore, only 9.7% of those who experienced symptoms required intensive care.
As for deaths among the 712 Diamond Princess passengers who caught the virus, some sources say that 8 people died. The CDC says that 9 people died. 8 deaths out of 712 is a death rate of 1.125%, or a 98.875% survival rate. If 9 people died, 9 deaths out of 712 cases is death rate of 1.3%, or a 98.7% survival rate.
In the case of the Grand Princess, there were 1,179 people on board (1,111 passengers and 68 crew members). As far as the CDC can determine, 119 people on the Grand Princess caught the virus. If 119 of the 1,179 people on the Grand Princess caught the virus, that means that only 10.1% of the people who were exposed to the virus caught the virus.
Even if we assume that 70% of the people on the Grand Princess somehow never came into contact with any infected persons, that would still mean that only 119 out of 825 people who were exposed to the virus caught the virus, which would be a contraction rate of only 14.5%.
As for deaths on the Grand Princess, as far as the CDC can determine, only 1 of the 119 people who caught the virus died from it. 1 death out of 119 cases is a death rate of 0.842%, or less than 1%, or a 99.158% survival rate.
Here is the CDC report on the Diamond Princess and Grand Princess cases:
Public Health Responses to COVID-19 Outbreaks on Cruise Ships...
More than 800 cases of laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 cases occurred during outbreaks on three cruise ship voyages, and cases linked to several additional cruises have been reported...www.cdc.gov
Has anyone ever claimed it was 100% contagious?
I never watch those, so do you have some links of them claiming it was higher?