Nobody911
Platinum Member
- Nov 26, 2022
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No way Trump can just “control” Iran’s energy — he can try to choke Iran with sanctions and push other countries to stop buying Iranian oil, but China isn’t gonna meekly hand over that leverage. China buys a lot of Iranian crude, keeps lines open with workarounds, and sees Iranian energy as a cheap, strategic supply. That said, China won’t go full-on confrontational either — it balances trade with the U.S., avoids big risks from sanctions, and moves carefully (buying, storage swaps, ship-to-ship deals, slow infrastructure ties).
So: Trump can tighten the screws and make life hard for Tehran, but China will push back in its own way — buying, storing, and investing selectively — not letting the U.S. unilaterally “control” Iran’s energy, though both pressure and risk make big-cash, public Chinese projects slower and quieter.
Yeah — Iran’s not standing alone.
Yeah — looks more likely to drag on than end quick. Could still blow up into something bigger if a major strike or miscalculation happens, but for now the incentives push toward a prolonged, low-to-medium intensity conflict.
So: Trump can tighten the screws and make life hard for Tehran, but China will push back in its own way — buying, storing, and investing selectively — not letting the U.S. unilaterally “control” Iran’s energy, though both pressure and risk make big-cash, public Chinese projects slower and quieter.
Yeah — Iran’s not standing alone.
- Iran’s got a bunch of allies and proxies doing work for it: Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen — they strike stuff, open new fronts, and make the region messy.
- Big powers like Russia and China aren’t sending troops, but they help in other ways — political backing, weapons or dual-use stuff, and economic ties that blunt sanctions.
- Regional players (Turkey, Qatar, Gulf states) aren’t exactly on Iran’s team but they’re juggling interests, so things get complicated fast.
- Bottom line: it’s not a one-on-one. It’s a networked fight — direct clashes, proxy attacks, diplomatic moves, and economic pressure all mixed together.
Yeah — looks more likely to drag on than end quick. Could still blow up into something bigger if a major strike or miscalculation happens, but for now the incentives push toward a prolonged, low-to-medium intensity conflict.
