Trump is crashing on the betting sites

[Rawley]

Trump had a significant leads on the election betting sites. His numbers have started plummeting in the past couple of days. The Madison Square Garden rally is going to go down as Trump’s black swan moment. That was when it all unraveled.

Kalshi - Election Forecast

Live odds from the only legal election market.

kalshi.com

Presidential Election Winner 2024

Polymarket | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The r...

polymarket.com

PredictIt

www.predictit.org

LOL Trump is at 60%, your cult leader is at 40%

 

[eagle1462010]

True. Still. . . I do wonder if he does win, if they will even allow the will of the people to be done.

Scoop: Some top Dems won't commit to certifying a Trump win​

https://www.axios.com/2024/10/11/house-democrats-jan-6-election-trump-raskin

Democrats are hinting they’ll object to a Trump victory​

Democrats are hinting they’ll object to a Trump victory - Washington Examiner

If former President Donald Trump wins the election next month, there is a high likelihood that Democrats will object to his victory in Congress in a bid to delegitimize him.

www.washingtonexaminer.com

​

They have objected before. Maybe its their turn to be prosecuted like Trump was over it?

Oh. But they play by a different set of rules. I forgot. They are all junior little Dictators who believe they RULE EVERYONE.

 

[Toro]

STFU commie .. like it or not .. and though there is no guarantee ,Trump has a very very good chance of a substantial EC victory .. but then again he may lose .. if he loses I will be disappointed but it wont cause me to have an emotional meltdown .. however if Harris loses you and fellow effeminate emotionally driven comrades will completely meltdown ! that's a fact .. 4 days left comrade ! just 4 short days !

STFU fascist.

You were posting the exact same bullshit four years ago!

 

[Toro]

It's now even on PredictIt

Betting markets - if you believe them - are picking up Harris's momentum surge in the last week of the election.

 

[eagle1462010]

STFU fascist.

You were posting the exact same bullshit four years ago!

Its still true 4 years later.

Leftards dont change. Unless its one of their 64 genders.

 

[Toro]

Its still true 4 years later.

Leftards dont change. Unless its one of their 64 genders.

You lost in 2020, cultist.

And FTR, there are two genders.

 

[eagle1462010]

You lost in 2020, cultist.

And FTR, there are two genders.

BS. You fuckers Harvested votes


1/2 this nation still thinks you stole it.

This time you are counting on illegals vote.

 

[Toro]

BS. You fuckers Harvested votes


1/2 this nation still thinks you stole it.

This time you are counting on illegals vote.

You're in a cult.

Keep clinging to the lies of your Orange God, old man.

 

[Toro]

Trump and Epstein were besties lol

 

[para bellum]

It's now even on PredictIt

Betting markets - if you believe them - are picking up Harris's momentum surge in the last week of the election.

Well Harris's "surge" certainly isn't reflected in polling averages.

The X poster's assumption: "I don’t know what is causing this rapid shift by my guess is: actual experts (so not engagement farmers on Twitter) are looking at the early voting data and concluding it looks good for Kamala."

Most "actual experts" will tell you that predictions based on early results are notoriously inaccurate...

Decision Desk HQ are the election analytics people that call the elections for the networks on election night. They are looking at county level data.

They are still saying Trump is looking strong.

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

Trump had a significant leads on the election betting sites. His numbers have started plummeting in the past couple of days. The Madison Square Garden rally is going to go down as Trump’s black swan moment. That was when it all unraveled.

Kalshi - Election Forecast

Live odds from the only legal election market.

kalshi.com

Presidential Election Winner 2024

Polymarket | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The r...

polymarket.com

PredictIt

www.predictit.org

Maybe...but Trump was going to lose regardless. The early voting totals among women made that abundantly clear.

 

[para bellum]

Toro

So you are putting your money on the the guy on X, and not the professionals?

 

[Toro]

Toro

So you are putting your money on the the guy on X, and not the professionals?

para bellum

I am a professional.

I'm not putting money on it one way or the other.

 

[para bellum]

para bellum

I am a professional.

I'm not putting money on it one way or the other.

Are you an election analytics professional?

You are dismissing Decision Desk HQ in favor of a guy on X, that is why I ask.

 

[para bellum]

Maybe...but Trump was going to lose regardless. The early voting totals among women made that abundantly clear.

Oh yeah, just look at that big shift from 2020!

Pay no mind to the 800K drop in turnout, lol...

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

Oh yeah, just look at that big shift from 2020!

Pay no mind to the 800K drop in turnout, lol...


View attachment 1035101

And who won in 2020? Biden

And who has lost support among women in the past 4 years? Trump

 

[Toro]

Are you an election analytics professional?

You are dismissing Decision Desk HQ in favor of a guy on X, that is why I ask.

para bellum

I'm a markets professional. I understand markets. I understand that thinly traded markets like election betting markets are easily manipulable. I've seen stocks with deeper liquidity being manipulated.

That doesn't mean that these markets are wrong. What it means is that you should have a deep skepticism of the information in these markets.

I look at election betting markets with mild interest as a gauge for general sentiment, but nothing else. They might be right, or they might not. Many things affect markets, not all of them rational.

 

[Dekster]

Trump had a significant leads on the election betting sites. His numbers have started plummeting in the past couple of days. The Madison Square Garden rally is going to go down as Trump’s black swan moment. That was when it all unraveled.

Kalshi - Election Forecast

Live odds from the only legal election market.

kalshi.com

Presidential Election Winner 2024

Polymarket | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The r...

polymarket.com

PredictIt

www.predictit.org

The betting sites are notorious for not being an accurate predictor of the winner of the US Presidency

 

[para bellum]

And who won in 2020? Biden

And who has lost support among women in the past 4 years? Trump

Lol you said:

Maybe...but Trump was going to lose regardless. The early voting totals among women made that abundantly clear.

I want to know what it was about the early voting totals among women that makes it abundantly clear to you.

You've been spouting that nonsense for several days now, and I have shown you that the early voting patterns are exactly the same...

 

[para bellum]

para bellum

I'm a markets professional. I understand markets. I understand that thinly traded markets like election betting markets are easily manipulable. I've seen stocks with deeper liquidity being manipulated.

That doesn't mean that these markets are wrong. What it means is that you should have a deep skepticism of the information in these markets.

I look at election betting markets with mild interest as a gauge for general sentiment, but nothing else. They might be right, or they might not. Many things affect markets, not all of them rational.

I don't pay attention to betting sites at all. I think the best early analytics are coming from Ralston in NV (a dem) and DDHQ. They have the tools to look at the data in a realistic way, and understand the patterns and trends.

You laughed at the DDHQ analysis, that's why I ask the question.

Those professionals also know what they don't see. They don't know what the election day turnout will be, they don't know which way independent voters will go.

Any pollster worth his salt will tell you that the early returns are not representative of the electorate. At least the polls make the attempt to represent the electorate...

I can look at the raw numbers in the early returns, but all I see is a much lower early turnout relative to 2020, and a shift to the older voters as a percentage of returns. Younger voters (so far anyway) are not showing up in large numbers relative to 2020...