Many have noted the Trump inability to find anyone supportive of the weekend surprise--even the Vietnam War is thought "Totally Harmless," only 55,000 deaths compared to 130,000--in the short time-frame(?). The basis is probably the five or more draft deferments that Trump actually got when he was sane. For now, he is connected to events or he is not. Psychopathic killers, serial killers, are even known to hide in plain sight!
www.nytimes.com
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No matter how you define harmless, most public health experts and respected coronavirus disease models would flatly contradict Mr. Trump’s assessment.
Calculating the toll of a rapidly moving pandemic while it is still raging is a Sisyphean feat, with outbreaks popping up in different parts of the country, even as improvements in care and new therapies curb mortality rates.
Experts say the president appears to have seized only on a death rate estimate of 1 percent or less that does not capture the entire impact of the disease, and excludes a multitude of thousands who have spent weeks in the hospital or weeks at home with mild to moderate symptoms that still caused debilitating health problems.
That death rate is narrowly focused on the number of people who die as a percentage of the total number of people affected — including those who are asymptomatic and do not experience any illness, and those with mild cases, who experience fleeting symptoms.
A crude calculation of the U.S. death rate, based on the total number of deaths officially attributed to the virus and the number of cases diagnosed through testing, suggests the mortality rate is higher, with 4.5 percent of those infected dying. But many experts agree that this rate is very likely inflated, because the denominator at this point in time has missed so many cases, including those who were never diagnosed because of testing shortages as well as those who were asymptomatic.
And some experts pointed out that even those who tested positive but show no symptoms should not be considered cases that are harmless — they can unwittingly transmit the virus to others in the community who are more vulnerable and may develop an acute illness.
Studies that have calculated the death rate based on broader antibody testing that takes these silent cases into consideration suggest an infection death rate of less than 1 percent, said Dr. Ashish K. Jha, the faculty director of the Harvard Global Health Institute.
“It’s always tricky to do this in the midst of a pandemic,” Dr. Jha said. “There are a lot of factors that go into it. But let’s say you took 1,000 Americans at random who were all infected. Our best guess is that between six and 10 would likely die of the virus.”
And the death rate does not capture all of the harm caused by the disease. As many as 15 to 20 percent of known Covid-19 patients may require hospitalization, and of the group admitted, 15 to 20 percent are transferred into intensive care, according to some estimates.
In addition to hospitalization, another consideration that would complicate what defines harmlessness is the long-term implication for so many who have recovered or are still struggling to regain their pre-Covid lives.
Patients fortunate enough to survive a lengthy hospitalization and weeks in an intensive care unit or on a ventilator face a long road to recovery. Many will suffer debilitating long-term effects, including impaired lung function, neurological problems and cognitive deficits, and some may require lifelong care and not regain full independence.
Some patients have prolonged courses of illness, with fevers and weakness that lasts for weeks on end; the disease has also been linked to strokes that can be disabling, and much about how the disease affects the immune system long term is still unknown. Residual symptoms such as continuing shortness of breath, muscle weakness, flashbacks and mental fogginess can persist for some time
"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Joining in prayer for Matthew 25: 14-30(?)!)
Trump Falsely Claims ‘99 Percent’ of Virus Cases Are ‘Totally Harmless’ (Published 2020)
The president dismissed the severity of the pandemic, downplaying the effect of the disease even as infections surge across the Sunbelt and rebound in California.
No matter how you define harmless, most public health experts and respected coronavirus disease models would flatly contradict Mr. Trump’s assessment.
Calculating the toll of a rapidly moving pandemic while it is still raging is a Sisyphean feat, with outbreaks popping up in different parts of the country, even as improvements in care and new therapies curb mortality rates.
Experts say the president appears to have seized only on a death rate estimate of 1 percent or less that does not capture the entire impact of the disease, and excludes a multitude of thousands who have spent weeks in the hospital or weeks at home with mild to moderate symptoms that still caused debilitating health problems.
That death rate is narrowly focused on the number of people who die as a percentage of the total number of people affected — including those who are asymptomatic and do not experience any illness, and those with mild cases, who experience fleeting symptoms.
A crude calculation of the U.S. death rate, based on the total number of deaths officially attributed to the virus and the number of cases diagnosed through testing, suggests the mortality rate is higher, with 4.5 percent of those infected dying. But many experts agree that this rate is very likely inflated, because the denominator at this point in time has missed so many cases, including those who were never diagnosed because of testing shortages as well as those who were asymptomatic.
And some experts pointed out that even those who tested positive but show no symptoms should not be considered cases that are harmless — they can unwittingly transmit the virus to others in the community who are more vulnerable and may develop an acute illness.
Studies that have calculated the death rate based on broader antibody testing that takes these silent cases into consideration suggest an infection death rate of less than 1 percent, said Dr. Ashish K. Jha, the faculty director of the Harvard Global Health Institute.
“It’s always tricky to do this in the midst of a pandemic,” Dr. Jha said. “There are a lot of factors that go into it. But let’s say you took 1,000 Americans at random who were all infected. Our best guess is that between six and 10 would likely die of the virus.”
And the death rate does not capture all of the harm caused by the disease. As many as 15 to 20 percent of known Covid-19 patients may require hospitalization, and of the group admitted, 15 to 20 percent are transferred into intensive care, according to some estimates.
In addition to hospitalization, another consideration that would complicate what defines harmlessness is the long-term implication for so many who have recovered or are still struggling to regain their pre-Covid lives.
Patients fortunate enough to survive a lengthy hospitalization and weeks in an intensive care unit or on a ventilator face a long road to recovery. Many will suffer debilitating long-term effects, including impaired lung function, neurological problems and cognitive deficits, and some may require lifelong care and not regain full independence.
Some patients have prolonged courses of illness, with fevers and weakness that lasts for weeks on end; the disease has also been linked to strokes that can be disabling, and much about how the disease affects the immune system long term is still unknown. Residual symptoms such as continuing shortness of breath, muscle weakness, flashbacks and mental fogginess can persist for some time
"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Joining in prayer for Matthew 25: 14-30(?)!)
