Here's the problem with this analysis.
For the GOP to win control of the Senate, they have to win 6 seats without losing any of their own.
The only way their own become vulnerable is if the Tea Party ousts an establishment candidate and puts someone crazy in KY, GA, or SC.
Now, the GOP will probably pick up the three competitive vacancies - MT, SD, and WV.
But they won't pick up NJ, IA or MI.
So they have to topple at least three incumbant democrats. Most likely are LA, AR and AK.
But the Republicans have knocked off all of 4 incumbant Democrats in the last 10 years. So it actually is a tall order.
Yes, I mentioned two the three D-retirement seats that are extremely likely to go R, and with a double digit margin. I did not mention Montana yet, for Montana is more blue-collar Democrat than people realize.
But it is not yet an analysis of this - yet - I even wrote in the OP that another thread will go up specifically over this.
But it is a matter of very simple strategema: the DEMs have to protect much more turf than the GOP. Yes, if the GOP again nominated Todd Akin-like types, then they hurt their chances of taking the Senate, but at the current time, they definitely have the better cards in their hand.
But actually, it means nothing. The GOP would not have a filibuster-proof Senate, and unless the GOP decides to go nuclear on everything, it won't help much.
Either way, whether D or R majority, we are looking at gridlock in 2015-2016.
Thanks for contributing.