The next elections of January, 2014: FL-13


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Nov 21, 2013
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deep within the statistical brain!!
will be for a vacant US- House seat in FL-13. Actually, if I read this all correctly, this is a DOUBLE primary:

Florida's 13th congressional district:

Florida's 13th congressional district - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Is now entirely Pinellas County, a swing county in a very large and important swing state.

Republican Bill Young, who served in the US House of Representatives from 1973 until late in 2013 (in the 6th, 8th, 10th and then in the 13th district), died on October 18th, 2013 and Governor Rick Scott set January 14th, 2014 as the election date.

Here is Bill Young's bio:

Bill Young - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

He served most of his career on the House Appropriations Committee and was best known for tons of earmarks for Pinellas County. He was no fan of Ronald Reagan: in 1976, he endorsed Ford. And in 1980, he endorsed Bush 41.

In 2012, Young won over his Democratic opponent with almost 58% of the vote. But at the same time, President Obama (D), won Pinellas County with 52% and a slightly more than 5% margin. So, the county is really "swingy" and full of voters willing to to split-ticket voting.

The famous Cook PVI listing lists this CD as "R+1", which means extremely competitive.

Katherine Harris, who was the FL SOS at the time of the Bush/Gore recount fiasco of 2000, was once a Representative from this district. So was Vern Buchanan.

Pinellas County is a very upscale county. Lots of rich people live there.

You can see who is on the ballot here:

Florida 2014 General Election

Primary 1 (closed):

For the SPECIAL ELECTION, that will take place in March, the primary will be on January 14th:

Alex Sink, a Democrat with lots of name recognition, is the only DEM who applied, so there will be no DEM primary.

Lucas Overby, a Libertarian, is the only name on the Libertarian ballot.

Michael Levinson is a write-in.

There are three GOP candidates, and that will be the race to watch:

Mark Bircher
David Jolly
Kathleen Peters

Primary 2 (closed), for the November general election for 2014-2016:

Jessica Ehrlich (D) is on the ballot, and she was Young's opponent last time. It looks like she is running unopposed for the nomination, although another name is listed (there is no FEC listing for his name).

Three Republicans are on the primary ballot. Five applied, but two, John-Michael Fleig and Frederick Preston Thomson, did not qualify.

There is also a Libertarian on the primary ballot and one unaffiliated. Since this is not a jungle primary, it means that the Democrat, the Libertarian and the Unaffiliated candidates are sure to win their primaries, so the real race here is among Republicans.

Now, I am no expert on FL-13, but this looks more like a two man race between Atty. and current Fl. state Representative Larry Crow and State Representative Kathleen Peters. The third candidate, Nick Zoller, is too young to run.


Is there anyone from Florida who can confirm this?

Sure looks like a primary for two different elections to me.

At any rate, I will be reporting the results on the 15th.
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