Thought Experiment - What if the shooter had succeeded ?

[j-mac]

I saw a lot of middle fingers and mouthing of Fuck You directed at the media in the aftermath.

The media deserves it…

 

[Skylar]

So where's the correction? Show me.

Show me the correction.

Show me the votes coming off

Show me the corrected curve.

Guess what... there isn't one. You lose.

You claim that the totals never came back down. Show me. I've already demonstrated the reporting error and its correction, withe evidence. Both from the officials in Michigan, and Decision Desk, the originators of your image.

You've presented a picture that even the company that made it said was in error.

The burden of proof to back your Big Lie delusion is entirely on you.

And you're fighting an uphill battle, as the delayed reporting that I cited and you insisted there was 'no evidence' of, was confirmed by Wisconsin officials, who reported that ALL of Milwakee was reported at 3:30 am in one big lump.

Explicitly contradicting your imaginary fantasy.

Smiling....is your demand that I disprove your imagination an acknowledgement that you can't prove Trump won? Maybe you can make up some more stats?

 

[JackOfNoTrades]

You're not very smart either.

You know what a statistical moment is?

You know what a Poisson process is?

The courts are forbidden from accepting statistical evidence, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

The odds of this happening are about one in 10 million.

View attachment 977713

The odds of it happening in two states simultaneously are right up there with the number of stars in the universe.

View attachment 977714



Really? How about the computers? How about the people who program the computers? How about the people who pay the people who program the computers?

Just stop. He lost Just fucking accept it and move on. You've been able to come up with nothing.

 

[Skylar]

Just stop. He lost Just fucking accept it and move on. You've been able to come up with nothing.

They can't. The beating heart of MAGA is being a victim. Someone has to be fucking them. They can't lose. They can't make mistakes. Every failure is a theft. Every loss, a crime.

Its one of the most subby, most cucky political philosophies in existence. As its predicated on fetishizing failure.

 

[JackOfNoTrades]

You're not very good with statistics.

We do analysis FIRST, before we look at causes.

Pretend the red and blue lines are stock tickers. You see a consistent TREND, which is quantified by statistical moments. Then you see a discontinuity. So now you can hypothesize about "factors" that may have caused it. Those factors can be quantified too. The standard tests are t tests, f tests, anovas, and so on.

The problem with your theory is, none of the factors account for the change in moments. You could for example, look at numbers of registered voters, or polling numbers, or a wide range of other factors.

In Michigan, the miracle of the morning vote dump is that Trump's curve didn't change AT ALL. The chart indicates that 96.3 % of the votes in your alleged dump had to go to Biden, to see what you're seeing. There is NO combination of factors that can account for that. There are not 96.3% registered Democrats in Wayne county, not even close. The polling numbers aren't close either.

So you tell me, how 96% of a vote tally could go to one candidate. That has never happened in ANY presidential election in the entire history of the United States. EVER.

We care about votes cast and counted. Not the number of registered voters and your fudged statistics.

Get lost with the Big Lie. He lost. Deal with it and move the fuck on.

 

[gtopa1]

De Santis is Great Value Trump. And its not the policies that folks like about Trump. Its a cult of personality.

Take Trump's policy on inflation, a major campaign issue. Um....what is it? Seriously, what's Trump's 'policy' to reduce inflation?

Its literally nothing. He has proposed absolutely nothing to reduce inflation. That's how little his supporters care about 'policy'. They're loyal to the man. And De Santis is a half assed version of Trump.

Less spending overall. Deregulate and more competition. Drill baby drill!!! Axe the renewables waste of money!! Etc etc etc!!!

Greg

 

[Skylar]

We care about votes cast and counted. Not the number of registered voters and your fudged statistics.

Get lost with the Big Lie. He lost. Deal with it and move the fuck on.

My favorite was when he insisted that there was zero evidence of reporting delays, despite Wisconsin officials explicitly describing them with ALL of Milkwakee's votes reported in one big lump.

Scruffy's response? To ignore it all and cling hopelessly to his little fantasy.

You can't fix stupid.

 

[Skylar]

Less spending overall. Deregulate and more competition. Drill baby drill!!! Axe the renewables waste of money!! Etc etc etc!!!

Greg

So deregulation results in lower inflation? Explain how that works. Specifically.

 

[JackOfNoTrades]

Less spending overall. Deregulate and more competition. Drill baby drill!!! Axe the renewables waste of money!! Etc etc etc!!!

Greg

All of which do nothing to reduce inflation.

 

[rightwinger]

Any statistician would shoot you for saying something that stupid.

Every statistician knows that you don't draw conclusions before you do the analysis.




Courts are forbidden from considering statistical evidence

My "ilk" happens to know a whole lot about statistics. Especially the branch of it called "causal analysis". Which deals with things like the Granger method, transfer entropy, and Renyi causality.

You're way out of your league.

Your statistics amounts to cherry picking explainable anomalies in the data and spreading misinformation

 

[scruffy]

You claim that the totals never came back down. Show me. I've already demonstrated the reporting error and its correction, withe evidence. Both from the officials in Michigan, and Decision Desk, the originators of your image.
?

I asked you first.

Show us the corrected chart that you CLAIM exists.

I claim you're full of shit and no such chart exists.

I did my part, now you do yours.

Or is it you can't?

 

[Skylar]

I asked you first.

Show us the corrected chart that you CLAIM exists.

I claim you're full of shit and no such chart exists.

I did my part, now you do yours.

Or is it you can't?

I've already demonstrated the reporting error and its correction, with evidence. Michigan election officials and the organization that made your chart both confirming the error and the correction.

YOU say it never came down.

Show me. You're the one that has imagined this elaborate conspiracy. Prove it.

 

[scruffy]

I've already demonstrated the reporting error and its correction, with evidence. Michigan election officials and the organization that made your chart both confirming the error and the correction.

YOU say it never came down.

Show me. You're the one that has imagined this elaborate conspiracy. Prove it.

SHOW US THE CHART, moron.

If they corrected it, they surely created a corrected chart.

You're fucking clueless. You have no idea how these things work.

You can't show us the chart, because there isn't one. You've been played. You're a gullible sheeple.

 

[Skylar]

SHOW US THE CHART, moron.

If they corrected it, they surely created a corrected chart.

You're fucking clueless. You have no idea how these things work.

You can't show us the chart, because there isn't one. You've been played. You're a gullible sheeple.

Show us the chart AFTER the correction confirmed by both Michigan officials AND the very people that made your chart.....with Biden keeping the votes despite the correction.

You can't. There's no such chart. You're showing us the pre-correction chart, and then insisting that its 'statistically impossible.'

While IGNORING the Michigan election officials AND the very folks that made your chart that confirm the reporting error that they later corrected.

You'll need to show us the evidence that the Michigan officials are wrong. And you can't.

Your willful ignorance isn't a standard of evidence. Which is why your record of failure in every court....is perfect.

 

[Skylar]

Oh, and scruffy....you've never provided a verifiable source for your 'chart'. So you don't even have that.

Try again, champ.

 

[Kondor3]

If the shooter had succeeded, Nikki Haley would be the candidate.

 

[Skylar]

Oh, and scruffy ....you so liked the National Academy of Sciences, even when they in no way backed your Big Lie fantasy.

Welp, time for you to give me an awkward, snivelling reason why you're going to ignore your own source!

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2103619118

So no evidence of voter fraud. And the 'anomalies' that you insist every statistician would agree exist.......didn't actually exist. Says who? Your own source and ACTUAL statisticians.

Time to make up some more bullshit stats, champ!

 

[Skylar]

If the shooter had succeeded, Nikki Haley would be the candidate.

Maybe. She's solid, but never really garnered that much support. She'd be a strong candidate. Way stronger than De Santis. No one wanted that guy.

 

[Cellblock2429]

I have to wonder:

Would things have calmed down ?

Would there have been clashes ? It was reported that shortley afterwards, some of the crowd started menacing the press box until cooler heads prevailed ?

What would the GOP have done ?

Would the election have been delayed to give the GOP time to chose a new candidate (and of course, the same question comes up....what if Joe Biden dies of a heart attack on September 1st ?).

I am voting for Trump and I want him to win.

But I don't want a civil war.

I also can't think of who would take his place. It forces to me to really wonder what it is that DJT can do that nobody else can do.

Just wondering.

/-----/ "Would the election have been delayed? "
Well, wonder no more.
In general, a combination of state or congressional actions could delay elections but not postpone the selection of a president and vice president. The only hard deadline spelled out in the Constitution is the end of a president’s term and a vice president’s term on January 20 of the year following a general election. (That same deadline applies regardless of term limits imposed on the president under the 22nd Amendment.)

The Constitution’s text requires that a group of electors, commonly called the Electoral College, chooses the next president. If a majority of electors fails to agree on a winner, Congress picks the winner in continent elections held within Congress under the terms of the 12th Amendment.

Does the Constitution allow for a delayed presidential election? | Constitution Center

As America battles the COVID-19 virus, speculation has started that a prolonged public health crisis could delay or even postpone this year’s presidential election. So how would the Constitution deal with such an unusual situation?

constitutioncenter.org

 

[Cellblock2429]

Do you think that could happen quickly or do you think the GOP might have asked for a delay ?

/---/ You can not delay a presidential election - ever.