Originally posted by Kathianne
Hey Comrade, here is a composit poll site that shows head-to-head and 3 way w/Nader.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls.html
Thanks for solid numbers... my own "grab ass" 50/50 split w/o Nader was totally off the cuff but not too far off.
I'm looking at the strategy behind the Democrats as if was supposed to make sense to each faction among them. Tell me if you agree as I go out on a limb here....
A Kerry-"Moderate VP" ticket is only reasonable chance of beating Bush in November, barring any major crisis for Bush's administration. Kerry will annouce his VP choice via email next week and it won't be Dean.
If the floor pushes for a Kerry-Dean ticket it means the party as a whole expects only a longshot to put Democrats in the White House. A catastrophic domestic terror attack could suffice.
Nader shows little sign of withdrawing his ballot entry and the Democrats are quite upset about it, going so far as to legally dispute his candidacy in one key state. He's holding out for a deal.
With something as hopeless as a Kerry-Dean ticket, Nader will stay in the race simply to keep his name active in politics... he'll certainly be "third" in the race and that's worth some future capital, even though all the left will lose the election horribly.
Should events unfold which boost Kerry in the polls (a maor terrorist event or loss of Iraq), I expect Nader will back out and grant his swing votes to Kerry, and some quid-pro-quo granted to him and his party, politically that is, will emerge after the election.
If the Kerry-Dean longshot is forced on the floor, it's going to made it even harder to convince Nader to retract his candidacy. Should both be on the ballot I expect Bush to win regardless of any event.
If a Kerry-Moderate ticket emerges instead, and bad things happen in America, and Nader retracts his candidacy to back Kerry, the Democrats might just be trying to win the election. and then we can worry. Until that point it's pretty clear their political infighting is an attempt to jockey for influence in the next election (2006 or 2008). Bush supporters can assume another four years.
:cof:
