This Would Be Too Cool!

[Annie]

I'd watch the Convention if this happens, there are embedded links:

http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/001937.php

July 02, 2004
Deaniacs Threaten Floor Fight
Supporters of Howard Dean have launched a campaign to get their favorite candidate on the Democratic ticket as John Kerry's VP, and sent a message to the presumptive nominee -- pick our man or watch your unity festival dissolve into a floor fight:

The National Draft Dean for VP Committee has not contacted either Dean or Kerry about its efforts, but it expects to approach the former Vermont governor before Democrats gather in Boston for the convention July 26.
"Howard Dean shifts the dynamics of the race," said Michael Meurer, co-chairman of the draft committee, who argued that Dean on the ticket would stop progressives from voting for independent candidate Ralph Nader. Dean has shown up on few, if any, lists of serious contenders for the vice presidential nomination. Members of the draft committee say they believe their efforts to persuade Kerry through petitions to choose Dean will prove futile.

So they came up with the idea of forcing a vote at the convention. "We're gearing up for and we're resigned to a floor fight," Meurer said.

At least 300 delegates have to sign a petition to put such a question before the convention; organizers claim they've already got 350 firm commitments from delegates to sign on and indications of support from another 150.


Once again, the Deaniacs threaten to undo the Democrats. Howard Dean sounded a discouraging note, at least publicly. Dean said that he "trust him to pick a vice-presidential nominee that will best serve the Democratic Party and the country," and that he fully supported whoever Kerry chooses. Dean has kept a low profile since flaming out at the beginning of the primaries, trying to allow Kerry to attract as much attention as possible; in other words, he shifted from maverick outsider to team player, up to now.

However, Kerry's inability to gain traction has clearly worried some Democrats, especially those who remember the Dean days somewhat more fondly now that time has passed. The top candidates for the VP slot do not promise much more magic on the stump, either; Edwards comes closest, but he's also the least experienced and has even less executive credentials than Kerry. Gephardt and Vilsack promise even less excitement at the convention than Kerry, while Hillary probably brings too much excitement -- for Bill, and the last thing Kerry needs at the moment is to get outshined by the Big Me. Deaniacs want that excitement, that good feeling back, and if they don't get it, they may wreck the nominating party and eliminate the big bounce Kerry needs coming out of it.

The problem for Kerry is that it puts him squarely in the middle once more. In order for the Senate's most liberal member to attract the important swing voters, Kerry has to select a centrist. However, picking a centrist will, as is obvious now, alienate the Deaniacs who energized the early primaries for the Democrats. Those voters may well wind up giving Nader a very long look, and at the least will be less than fully motivated for the remainder of the campaign season.

The other danger for the Kerry campaign will arise if they start believing their own press releases and operate from the assumption that Kerry actually is a centrist. If that is the case, then Dean may wind up on the ticket -- which will combine the least effective campaigners in the party on a ticket that will skew hard left, the wrong direction entirely. A Kerry ticket that runs further to the left with Dean will bring about another Mondale or McGovern fiasco. And with the Deaniacs threatening floor fights, we may wind up seeing not just 1972 but 1968 all over again.

Maybe the networks will change their mind and cover the conventions this year. Unless, of course, Katie Couric has a croquet match on NBC instead.

Posted by Captain Ed at July 2, 2004 06:26 PM

 

[NATO AIR]

i doubt they'd do it.

i'll give dean this... he's really shown he's serious about rejuvanating the democratic party by forcing it to look to its left before it jumps to the center

hopefully this means it takes the best elements of the left with it when it moves to the center

there is no way dean will get on the ticket, and i doubt he wants it. he's happy being the maverick of the democrats, even if he is acting as a team player to get kerry elected

and there are way too many groups that were voting for bush or were strongly GOP that are looking favorable or possible to the dems, to move to dean would kill the dem's chances of getting these folks

 

[Annie]

Originally posted by NATO AIR
i doubt they'd do it.

i'll give dean this... he's really shown he's serious about rejuvanating the democratic party by forcing it to look to its left before it jumps to the center

hopefully this means it takes the best elements of the left with it when it moves to the center

there is no way dean will get on the ticket, and i doubt he wants it. he's happy being the maverick of the democrats, even if he is acting as a team player to get kerry elected

and there are way too many groups that were voting for bush or were strongly GOP that are looking favorable or possible to the dems, to move to dean would kill the dem's chances of getting these folks

And who would these be, praytell?

best elements of the left

and these?

way too many groups that were voting for bush or were strongly GOP that are looking favorable or possible to the dems

 

[NATO AIR]

the progressive christian movement (folks led by john podesta), a religious movement to help enact social change and social justice...
they have a few bad ideas like everybody, but by and by, they're good for the country and good for the dems to help prove the christian right ain't the majority

the sensible environmentalists... these are folks who realize there are some battles not to be fought, some species can't be saved, some land can't stay development free... they are the best the environmental movement in this country has, and the reflection of the majority of american's views on the environment

liberal scientists in god knows how many fields... these are folks who press on for further and further development in science, reminding us all that science is important... it helps this crowd has increasingly become more vocal about keeping america competitive in the field of science.

liberal internationalists... these are the liberals who privately backed bush on the war, and sometimes publicly. they came of age especially during the bosnia debacle, seeing that non-violence and war only in defense of America was not all that America should have as options in dealing with genocidal dictators in the world.

there are a few more, but they beat out:

conspiracy theorists

anti-war (all the time) folks

anti-globalization (anti-everything, angst ridden folks)

communists/socialists

 

[NATO AIR]

rural voters, Arabs, Latinos (especially Cubans in s. florida and those in Arizona), social conservatives with centrist/liberal international viewpoints, Asians, young people, business owners (the tech industry, once staunchly pro-bush in 2000, looks very pro-kerry or at least anti-bush in 2004)

there are a few others i believe also

 

[Annie]

In response to your last 2 posts, I don't see John Podesta as left wing of the democratic party, more centrist than most. The others too, are not left, so I'm unsure what you mean. Lord knows as far as enviormentalist groups go, I'm sure you don't mean the eco-terrorists? If that is whom you're referring to, the dems are in worse shape than I thought.


I don't think Bush ever had the tech vote, don't know where you'd get that idea. Perhaps because of Microsoft case, but Gates certainly didn't want Bush elected, he's all about 'global'. The types of people that tech attracted are not you're normal entrepreurs, who would tend to GOP.

Arabs too insignificant, TG to make a difference. Cubans have been dicey for awhile now, but they are going to want to know what Kerry would do and he's been friendly with Castro, so I wouldn't be too sure on that one.

Asians don't 'block vote' proven over and over, so again, I'm unsure where you get that.

 

[NATO AIR]

well podesta has taken up a leadership mantle with the left progressive movement

the environmentalists i'm talking about are the ones who make sense, they often have liberal views in addition to the "liberal views" they're castigated for having by their opponents, despite their common sense environmental causes

arabs are what, 3 to 4 million people if not more, they voted for bush in 2000, they're voting for kerry more than likely in 2004 and they're almost all in key battleground states like pennsylvania, michigan, ohio and florida

asians don't bloc vote, but they can help kerry in places like washington, oregon, arizona if he gets more votes from them

cubans are unhappy with jeb and george, not only on castro but an increasing number of the younger cubans are going democratic anyway.

business vote in general is going to lean more towards kerry (perhaps not a majority but more than gore) this year, because of the economy and unhappiness with bush (especially in battleground states)

 

[Annie]

Originally posted by NATO AIR
well podesta has taken up a leadership mantle with the left progressive movement

the environmentalists i'm talking about are the ones who make sense, they often have liberal views in addition to the "liberal views" they're castigated for having by their opponents, despite their common sense environmental causes

arabs are what, 3 to 4 million people if not more, they voted for bush in 2000, they're voting for kerry more than likely in 2004 and they're almost all in key battleground states like pennsylvania, michigan, ohio and florida

asians don't bloc vote, but they can help kerry in places like washington, oregon, arizona if he gets more votes from them

cubans are unhappy with jeb and george, not only on castro but an increasing number of the younger cubans are going democratic anyway.

business vote in general is going to lean more towards kerry (perhaps not a majority but more than gore) this year, because of the economy and unhappiness with bush (especially in battleground states)

So you think Kerry will win. As a given, what do you see him doing? Teach me.

 

[NATO AIR]

i don't think he'll win

i just think he'll get these votes and more

i just don't think his strategy of lay-low will work, because i think iraq is going to get better and i think bush will somehow start winning points in other places

i'm just saying, i hope the democratic party continues to move to the center after this election (instead of to the left like michael moore and dean would love, even though dean was a fairly centrist governor in vermont) and that it takes these parts of the left with it to the center... that way it doesn't lose its soul and it doesn't lose some of its best ideas and arguments

i thought edwards was a better idea for dems, simply because his message works better than kerry's. i've seen him in action while i was on leave and my god, he had a GOP audience eating out of his hands, he was scoring points off Bush in all the right places, without resorting to excessive demonization or conspiracy theories... he would have kept the dems from straying to the left and brought them to the center. edwards was also not so excessively negative or brooding, he was hopeful and optimistic, in his eyes, america was good but could be better, our place in the world was in trouble but we would figure a way out, we had the power to make the change, etc etc

kerry's like the media right now, all negative and a bit of fake, strained positivity.

 

[Annie]

Well I'm glad to hear he won't win! LOL :

You have more faith than I that the dems will move to the center. I'd say you'd have a better chance at getting Republicans a bit more green. (although I don't know many who aren't on things like paying for river and lake cleanup, recycling, keeping open land, etc.) Just not for saving a snail dart that never existed, by refusing permits to build on private property.

 

[NATO AIR]

i think they can either swing to the left or swing to the center...

they can't do what they're doing now, which is in a state of constant friction between opposing forces

if they can win the election somehow, i think you'll see kerry lead them to the center, mainly because he probably would realize that is the only way he could gain reelection and the democrats have a hope of winning the senate.

i think the overall future of the dems lies in four people: john edwards, that senate candidate in illinois, ford from tennesee (the black rep.) and zell miller.

edwards because he is optimistic and represents the wing of the dems that believes in progress and change without constant class warfare and raising taxes every time there's a problem.

the senate candidate (his name keeps escaping me) because he is just hitting on everything the dems have been missing for so long: a guy who doesn't waffle, holds his ground and does so with conviction and pride.

ford.... the rise of the new black leadership lies in this man's hands... he's made surprising inroads with latino leaders around the nation (remember he almost got house whip from pelosi because she faced an insurgency from latino and black legislators), even some republicans and his viewpoints are fair and honest, without being too pandering.

zell miller... a lot of dems are sick and tired of their party either blindly following the left or just opposing pres. bush because he's pres. bush... they want independence and free thought, and may the best idea win. zell miller is the best democrat out there right now because he pretty much got fed up with the left's onslaught on bush and is saying "y'all out of control, i'm going to the republicans" he may not be right but he proves a point many dems would be foolish to ignore

 

[Annie]

Obama is the IL candidate, he is smart. I'll probably be voting for him, while working on the GOP candidate's campaign, it's what I do. LOL Still, Obama is going to win and the GOP will be token for the ballot. Thompson, Edgar, and Topinka all refused to take Ryan's spot-they don't lose.

Personally, there are not enough centrist democrats, Kerry is left of left, just not sounding like it, actually not sounding at all lately. Big campaign news: I'm emailing my vp choice! Wow, that's informative.

Zell Miller is a republican, he just can't abandon his 'party' though he should now that he is speaking at GOP convention. But he's retiring, so I guess that's what he'll do. I guess in a way it's like my voting for Obama, not first time I go dem. for local or even national. It's the candidate and practicality. Just glad they have someone that I can HOPE will be decent, since Durbin it flotsam.

 

[NATO AIR]

i think some of them are retired or lost their elections, but are still highly influential... i'll give hilary this, she's one of the remaining ones, i know folks can't stand her and don't trust her, but her voting record and what she's said has been fairly centrist or close to the centre of left-centre politician

bob kerrey, max cleeland, sam nunn, wes clark, joe lieberman, joe biden, john (??) breaux, bob graham, etc etc guys like that are fairly centrist aside from maybe a few points.... cleeland should never have lost election, but that was political dirty tricks at its usual, and that was a shame, georgia let a good man go on that one...

there are some, and you see more of them in places like florida, ohio, virginia, maryland, etc

i do think arnold is forcing a lot of dems to rethink their politics in california, and that is for the good. he's done great so far, with basically a centrist democrat agenda.

 

[Annie]

Originally posted by NATO AIR
i think some of them are retired or lost their elections, but are still highly influential... i'll give hilary this, she's one of the remaining ones, i know folks can't stand her and don't trust her, but her voting record and what she's said has been fairly centrist or close to the centre of left-centre politician

bob kerrey, max cleeland, sam nunn, wes clark, joe lieberman, joe biden, john (??) breaux, bob graham, etc etc guys like that are fairly centrist aside from maybe a few points.... cleeland should never have lost election, but that was political dirty tricks at its usual, and that was a shame, georgia let a good man go on that one...

there are some, and you see more of them in places like florida, ohio, virginia, maryland, etc

i do think arnold is forcing a lot of dems to rethink their politics in california, and that is for the good. he's done great so far, with basically a centrist democrat agenda.

With the exception of Hillary who is positioning right now, I agree with you. Key is they are retired, retiring, or lost their elections.

 

[NATO AIR]

do you see the same effects of arnold that i do from looking at california politics?

i swear, it seems like a baptism of fire for some of those democrats... not just positioning but a reckoning that has changed their stance on some issues literally overnight for good...

 

[Annie]

Originally posted by NATO AIR
do you see the same effects of arnold that i do from looking at california politics?

i swear, it seems like a baptism of fire for some of those democrats... not just positioning but a reckoning that has changed their stance on some issues literally overnight for good...

But overnight and positioning are not to be mistaken for convictions and they will change their stripes as soon as they figure they can.

 

[NATO AIR]

i don't think they can ever change their stripes back to that mode, except maybe in san fran or oakland...

arnie is governor of the decade right now, i have never seen anyone else tear into a state's problems and make progress like this before... we need him in Florida

 

[Annie]

Originally posted by NATO AIR
i don't think they can ever change their stripes back to that mode, except maybe in san fran or oakland...

arnie is governor of the decade right now, i have never seen anyone else tear into a state's problems and make progress like this before... we need him in Florida

Just watch...the people are watching now, they probably won't be in another 6 months or so....

 

[NATO AIR]

we'll see... i still think the liberal/conservative era is over in Cali, as it is in NY. to win after arnold, candidates will have to follow something close to his policies, or an improvement of.

 

[Comrade]

You two pretty much cleaned up on this topic but I’d like to address the whole premise of this push for Dean as the VP.


Being so anti-Bush, wouldn’t Dean and his followers prefer to join forces with Nader, the Clintonians, the Green Party, etc... simply so the entire left could oust the “Bush regime” and ensure at least Kerry wins the election?

Even generous polls show Kerry no more likely to win in November than Bush. But those polls do not include Nader as a third party, which seals a Bush victory.


Naders' role as a swing vote in November gives him significant clout in demanding some insider concession to withdraw and back the Democrats. Nader can suck drain perhaps 3% of Kerry’s vote, if recent history is still applicable.

On top of that a Kerry-Dean ticket doesn't do anything but further damage the Democratic candidate.

At least a few percent of Kerry-leaning moderates will be scared off by Dean, and vote for Bush instead. Dean as VP still makes Bush voters vote for Bush, right?


So lose a few percent of electoral votes from Kerry to Nader.

Then shift several points from Kerry to Bush, and that’s a clear Bush victory, given expectations today.


If we do see a Kerry-Dean ticket, the Democrats have given up the idea of a coalition, and instead seem to be positioning themselves for a say in the next challenge against the Republicans.

Given a hopeless Kerry ticket it's quite rational for Dean and Nader supporters to put their candidates back on the map for the next challenge.


And if there happens to be an event (ie. large-scale US terrorist event) which propels Kerry to the presidency Dean will be in place for a future presidency.


But if the left were serious about defeating Bush at all costs, they'd have already cut a deal with Nader and abandoned Dean for a more moderate VP ticket with Kerry, to maximize his odds against defeating Bush. The infighting proves they are simply anything but.

Dean and Nader personally made the right move for their careers either way. They keep their name in the political arena for the next round, and lose nothing out of the bargain.


The interesting aspect will be if Bush edges out Kerry in November and it's clear Nader and/or Dean cost Kerry the election.