The Tariffs: Enforcing an Obsolete Mindset

[multivita-man]

My guess is that Trump is trying to force the issue by going completely over the the top. Presumably the point is to force some degree of capitulation and then drop it.

Okay. I get it. It doesn’t have to be done this way, but it is what it is. And it comes with an extra price tag of destroyed relationships, so we’ll see.

It’s a shame that this is who we are now. But will it work? Yeah, maybe.

For it to 'work', we have to have a realistic end-game.

An example of an end-game would be imposing tariffs on countries that minimally process goods from China for reexport into the United States. Target specific sectors that are responsible for the trade imbalance between the US and China. Go after specific countries that do trade with China, but with specific things in mind

Throwing tariffs on all countries is like walking into a bar and picking a fight with the entire bar when your beef is with the dude at the pool table who made out with your wife.

 

[schmidlap]

My guess is that Trump is trying to force the issue by going completely over the the top. Presumably the point is to force some degree of capitulation and then drop it.

Okay. I get it. It doesn’t have to be done this way, but it is what it is. And it comes with an extra price tag of destroyed relationships, so we’ll see.

It’s a shame that this is who we are now. But will it work? Yeah, maybe.

The bottom line for the American consumer is, "Do Trump's antics raise the prices that I pay?"

Goldman Sachs Warns Trump’s Tariffs Will Drive Inflation and Economic Slowdown​

 

[schmidlap]

It goes without saying retaliation comes next and we're off to a race to the bottom.

Trump's understanding of tariffs is, not surprisingly, extremely simple-minded.

'Worst place to be' for Federal Reserve as ​

Trump tariffs boost inflation, raise recession odds​

 

[whitehall]

Wimpy Uncle Sam has been the patsy of every foreign government on the freaking globe for decades. When a patriot like Trump tries to fix it and put America first for change, the crazy angry hypocritical left calls the effort obsolete. WTF is with these people?

 

[Leo123]

For it to 'work', we have to have a realistic end-game.

An example of an end-game would be imposing tariffs on countries that minimally process goods from China for reexport into the United States. Target specific sectors that are responsible for the trade imbalance between the US and China. Go after specific countries that do trade with China, but with specific things in mind

Throwing tariffs on all countries is like walking into a bar and picking a fight with the entire bar when your beef is with the dude at the pool table who made out with your wife.

There is a 10% cap. If a country charges US 10% we charge them 10%. Countries with tariffs higher are charged more than 10% but not as high as their own tariffs on US. That seems pretty specific.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

They won't 'endure.'

You do not know that. Time will tell, and we will see.

 

[multivita-man]

There is a 10% cap.

No there isn't.

If a country charges US 10% we charge them 10%. Countries with tariffs higher are charged more than 10% but not as high as their own tariffs on US. That seems pretty specific.

These are sloppy, haphazard tariffs, written by idiots for idiots.

 

[Mac1958]

For it to 'work', we have to have a realistic end-game.

An example of an end-game would be imposing tariffs on countries that minimally process goods from China for reexport into the United States. Target specific sectors that are responsible for the trade imbalance between the US and China. Go after specific countries that do trade with China, but with specific things in mind

Throwing tariffs on all countries is like walking into a bar and picking a fight with the entire bar when your beef is with the dude at the pool table who made out with your wife.

The bottom line for the American consumer is, "Do Trump's antics raise the prices that I pay?"

Goldman Sachs Warns Trump’s Tariffs Will Drive Inflation and Economic Slowdown​

Under normal circumstances, I'd assume that taking a risk of this size involved significant, meticulous planning by level-headed people. I'm not terribly confident in this case. This is a standard Trumpian over-the-top, high drama, extra hair spray, hyperbolic extravaganza.

It also has to assume that America is the one absolutely indispensable, unreplaceable economic force on the planet. That may have been true a couple of decades ago, but I don't know for sure that it's true now.

BUT can it work? Maybe, maybe not. We need a domino effect of countries blinking and getting in line pretty quickly. What Trump is not telling America is that much of this manufacturing increase will take YEARS to come to fruition. What happens in the meantime? But yeah, it could work if the pieces fall quickly.

This is the application of full defibrilation to a heart that had only slowed, and not stopped beating. Pretty freakin' risky. BEYOND risky. This didn't have to be done this way. But we'll see. We have no choice now.

 

[g5000]

If someone has a better idea than tariffs for putting a stop to other countries ripping us off, stealing our IP, flooding our markets in unfair trade practices wrecking American jobs and industries I'm all ears. NONE have been proposed in the past 50 years.

The fact is our own government has SOLD US OUT to these foreign countries for favors, bribes and kickbacks. Our government trades away our jobs and industries to line their own pockets.

Wow. You are a letter-perfect parrot! You must have been transcribing Trump's speech today.

Incredible!

 

[g5000]

Can someone PLEASE explain to me why Trump 2.0 is seriously pissed off at the trade treaty Trump 1.0 negotiated and bragged about?

Is he schizophrenic, or what?!?

Is it treatable, or will we all have to suffer while his psychosis runs amok?

 

[g5000]

This may be the end of Harley-Davidson.

 

[Mac1958]

Can someone PLEASE explain to me why Trump 2.0 is seriously pissed off at the trade treaty Trump 1.0 negotiated and bragged about?

Is he schizophrenic, or what?!?

Is it treatable, or will we all have to suffer while his psychosis runs amok?

Ouch

He's a child with shiny objects. And this time around, he's surrounded by people who only enable him.

 

[g5000]

If you can't lift your lover up, then push everyone else down.

Putin's economy is on the verge of collapse.

Trump loves Putin with all his heart and soul.

It looks to me like Trump is doing everything he can to help his true love.

He's capitulating on Ukraine to help Putin.

Now he's attacking the economies of the West, which will help Putin.

There's a pattern here.

Maybe ending sanctions against Russia is next.

 

[Mac1958]

This may be the end of Harley-Davidson.

I notice that Trump called these tariffs "permanent".

Which is pretty funny, given the fact that he has the attention span of a two year old.

 

[TemplarKormac]

Oh dear, some people in the last few posts are mistaking my critique of Trump to mean they can engage in blatant asskissing and sack sucking.

Give it a rest.

 

[g5000]

The markets in Asia are imploding as we speak.

Dow futures are down 800 points.

God only knows what effects this will have on derivatives and swaps.

 

[Mac1958]

The markets in Asia are imploding as we speak.

Dow futures are down 800 points.

God only knows what effects this will have on derivatives and swaps.

Anyone who doesn't judiciously use stops is paying for it today.

It'll be really choppy. I doubt these tariffs are going to stay the same. He may be changing them daily for all we know.

 

[BluesLegend]

Wow. You are a letter-perfect parrot! You must have been transcribing Trump's speech today.

Incredible!

Translation, you have NOTHING in response because facts bitch slapped your dumb ass into next week.

 

[multivita-man]

It also has to assume that America is the one absolutely indispensable, unreplaceable economic force on the planet. That may have been true a couple of decades ago, but I don't know for sure that it's true now.

Good point.

And for those who argue that we are indispensable, we're attacking the very thing that makes us so at this moment in time. I think it's entirely possible to rebalance trade over time, but to end a global economic system all at once is likely going to end in a sharp economic slowdown and inflation. In other words, stagflation - at least in the next 6-12 months and likely longer than that.

Then it's just a matter of the degree to which the U.S. can transform its economies and how quickly it can do so, if it can. I think the odds favor a misfire over a positive transformation, but I am willing to wait and see.

 

[Mac1958]

Good point.

And for those who argue that we are indispensable, we're attacking the very thing that makes us so at this moment in time. I think it's entirely possible to rebalance trade over time, but to end a global economic system all at once is likely going to end in a sharp economic slowdown and inflation. In other words, stagflation - at least in the next 6-12 months and likely longer than that.

Then it's just a matter of the degree to which the U.S. can transform its economies and how quickly it can do so, if it can. I think the odds favor a misfire over a positive transformation, but I am willing to wait and see.

Assuming Trump has an exit plan here -- and I sure hope he does -- my guess is that he thinks this will shock these countries into making deals quickly. In that case, a lot of the more destructive tariffs could be lifted fairly shortly and he can declare victory.

He can't force countries and companies to move manufacturing here. A new plant takes three to five years to build. He'll get a few, but it's difficult for a company to make long term plans when things are so fluid. It will have to be companies that were already predisposed to moving something here.

The longer this lasts the more damage will be done. He thinks he has the upper hand. I guess we're going to find out.