The stock market - 10/17/08

[DavidS]

Today is going to be ugly.

So ugly, Bush is set to speak before the market even opens. Every day Bush has spoken about the economy, the stock market plunged.

Expect some profit taking from yesterday and Monday PLUS we get the September housing data today. Combined with the news that mortgage rates are extremely high right now and the volatility index was at an all-time high and we could see our first 1000 point drop. The past few days have seen massive above 600 swings in either direction, so it's going to be a bumpy ride today.

It's also the end of the week and Hedge Funds are going to need to cover their liquidty, so expect a late day sell off.

 

[DavidS]

Home

BREAKING NEWS: Housing Starts Fall More than Expected, Down 6.3% to 817,000; Permits Fall 8.3% to 786,000 (story developing)

This is not good.

 

[NOBama]

Good chance we’ll see an intra-day rally today, although as I mentioned in another post yesterday, Housing Starts/Building Permits economic reports may offset yesterday’s positive news. Bush speaking hasn’t helped in the past and it probably won’t today, unless he has actionable news to report.

In any event going flat by EOD or when/if mass selling starts this afternoon would be a wise decision. The prefect storm may be brewing for a Black Monday, so caution should be the order of the day.

Get In. Get Out. Make CASH. That may be easier said than done today.

 

[DavidS]

Huge tip: Google beat advertising expectations and the stock is cheap ($350/share) right now. Google is going to SURGE today.

 

[editec]

Two positions rational investors take in this kind of market: cash and fetal.

Sure, the market will eventually recover.

All one need do is know WHEN it will recover.

 

[DavidS]

Wow, Google is already surging in futures. I'm dumping all of my Morgan Stanley and going right into Google. If anyone here has Scottrade, or Etrade, or works with a broker, I suggest you do this before the NASDAQ opens. It's already up 7% before the bell.

 

[NOBama]

Two positions rational investors take in this kind of market: cash and fetal.

Sure, the market will eventually recover.

All one need do is know WHEN it will recover.

I understand where you’re coming from and rigid logic like that, based on economic conditions, is driving this market for investors right now. Obviously, this is not an investors market, it’s a traders market and I’m one of those people who believes there’s always a bull market somewhere. ETF’s like QID, EEV, SKF, DUG, and their counter parts have been like gifts from the equity gods lately. I didn’t choose the current market conditions and I decided that sitting out of the game wasn’t an option for me.

My opinion is that our government put the lipstick on this pig and I’m going to ‘take advantage’ of it, until it goes out of heat or I run out of Viagra - while cash sits on the sideline looking for a bottom. At my age, I’m not concerned about that; I’ll invest when true recovery trends kick in and be happy with the price I can get in at.

 

[strollingbones]

Home

BREAKING NEWS: Housing Starts Fall More than Expected, Down 6.3% to 817,000; Permits Fall 8.3% to 786,000 (story developing)

This is not good.

both candidate are ignoring the housing crisis. until we get that straight we dont stand a chance of recovery.

 

[dilloduck]

Wow, Google is already surging in futures. I'm dumping all of my Morgan Stanley and going right into Google. If anyone here has Scottrade, or Etrade, or works with a broker, I suggest you do this before the NASDAQ opens. It's already up 7% before the bell.

Gamblers like you fuck up the market. You treat it as if it were a casino.

 

[editec]

I understand where you’re coming from and rigid logic like that, based on economic conditions, is driving this market for investors right now. Obviously, this is not an investors market, it’s a traders market and I’m one of those people who believes there’s always a bull market somewhere. ETF’s like QID, EEV, SKF, DUG, and their counter parts have been like gifts from the equity gods lately. I didn’t choose the current market conditions and I decided that sitting out of the game wasn’t an option for me.

My opinion is that our government put the lipstick on this pig and I’m going to ‘take advantage’ of it, until it goes out of heat or I run out of Viagra - while cash sits on the sideline looking for a bottom. At my age, I’m not concerned about that; I’ll invest when true recovery trends kick in and be happy with the price I can get in at.

Understood, NO.

If one understand the finer points of day trading, and is very smart (or very lucky) on can make a fortune no matter where the market is headed.

But most people are playing the stock game they've been indictrinated to believe is the right way to play...they buy em and hold em for the long term.

In other words, they're the sheep who get fleeced every decade or so.

The fundamentals of this nation's economy are sick, possibly terminal.

Bad times are times of tremendous opportunity for those who understand market mechanics.

Good luck!

 

[NOBama]

Dillo, the market is a casino right now, no doubt.

I'm guilty of playing this crap shoot and I’m not the least bit ashamed of it.

What infuriates me is that a lot of the companies that contributed to current market conditions are also the companies that were treating the markets as casino’s which got us here in the first place.

 

[editec]

Gamblers like you fuck up the market. You treat it as if it were a casino.

No they serve a purpose, most of them.

They are trading against people who are hedging their long positions.

Now I do not doubt that in aggregate the day traders are creating their own effect on the market, but they provide liquidity to the markets that long range investors need, too.

These day traders didn't invent the game, they just got real good at playing it (some of them, the rest don't last long)

I wish I'd learned the game back when I had a grown up income to be honest.

 

[dilloduck]

Understood, NO.

If one understand the finer points of day trading, and is very smart (or very lucky) on can make a fortune no matter where the market is headed.

But most people are playing the stock game they've been indictrinated to believe is the right way to play...they buy em and hold em for the long term.

In other words, they're the sheep who get fleeced every decade or so.

The fundamentals of this nation's economy are sick, possibly terminal.

Bad times are times of tremendous opportunity for those who understand market mechanics.

Good luck!

I'm not so suure of that anymore. I think day traders and speculators are increasing in numbers and give an skewed view of what stocks are really worth.

 

[NOBama]

Obviously, this is not an investors market, it’s a traders market and I’m one of those people who believes there’s always a bull market somewhere. ETF’s like QID, EEV, SKF, DUG, and their counter parts have been like gifts from the equity gods lately.

Follow the market indicators. Get in. Get Out. Make CASH. Works for me.

End of story.

Have a great day.

 

[editec]

I'm not so suure of that anymore. I think day traders and speculators are increasing in numbers and give an skewed view of what stocks are really worth.

I think the real problem is that banks are playing these high risk games.

Time was they couldn't gamble with people's money, but the last two decades of banking deregulation made all that possible, eh?

 

[dilloduck]

I think the real problem is that banks are playing these high risk games.

Time was they couldn't gamble with people's money, but the last two decades of banking deregulation made all that possible, eh?

It certainly didn't force them to do it either but considering the nature of the money industry it probably wasn't a wise move to give them an inch.

 

[DavidS]

Gamblers like you fuck up the market. You treat it as if it were a casino.

It IS a casino. 90% of all trades are short term trades. I was in Morgan Stanley for a week, it went up 100% and then fell down 20% and with economic news looking bleak, there was little to no chance of MS regaining enough money. So I took my money elsewhere and put it in Google, which is up almost $30 today. I bought 100 shares of Google at $353. $35,300. It's up to $381.16. I've made about $3000 so far today. Not the surge I was looking for, though.

It's all paper money. If I cash it, I have to pay comissions, plus fees plus capital gains tax on my profits.