The Republicans are the one's who really caved.

[MagicMike]

And poor inner city minorities who are increasingly turning to the GOP. This may finally turn the so-called Blue Wall states (which in 2024 were neither blue nor a wall) permanently red.

Florida is no longer a swing state. Not even close. Neither is Ohio. They used to be, but not anymore. Texas may flip in the future, but Hispanics are not a monolithic block, so don't count on that anytime soon.


The GOP may well lose the house in 2026. Don't pretend this is a seismic shift in national sentiment. The party in power ALWAYS loses seats in the midterms.

The fact remains that the Obamacare TEMPORARY Covid extended subsidies affect a tiny proportion of the populace.

I guess we'll just have to see how it affects the midterm results. So far it AIN'T looking good for Republicans.

 

[Eman623]

I guess we'll just have to see how it affects the midterm results. So far it AIN'T looking good for Republicans.

How exactly can you measure how much the loss of the Covid subsidies will affect the midterms?

The GOP will likely lose the house but retain the senate. The Dems will spend the next 2 years after that in an obstructionist impeachment-fest that accomplishes nothing.

 

[MagicMike]

How exactly can you measure how much the loss of the Covid subsidies will affect the midterms?

The GOP will likely lose the house but retain the senate. The Dems will spend the next 2 years after that in an obstructionist impeachment-fest that accomplishes nothing.

With all 535 seats in the House up for election and 33 Senate seats it should be fairly easy to determine whether it is simply a routine, midterm flip or a full on voter rebellion and a rejection of Donald Trump's Republican approved policies. Also public support surveys, pre election polling, and of course exit polling will help tell the story.
Actually these things are already beginning to tell the story but MAGAts don't seem to want to aknowlege it. There is a good chance that even the day after the election next November they will still be in denial just like in 2020.

 

[Eman623]

With all 535 seats in the House up for election and 33 Senate seats it should be fairly easy to determine whether it is simply a routine, midterm flip or a full on voter rebellion and a rejection of Donald Trump's Republican approved policies. Also public support surveys, pre election polling, and of course exit polling will help tell the story.
Actually these things are already beginning to tell the story but MAGAts don't seem to want to aknowlege it. There is a good chance that even the day after the election next November they will still be in denial just like in 2020.

There's 435 seats in the House, not 535.

"Fairly easy" is easy to say. Not easy to do.

Issue polling is one tool, but easily manipulated and subject to push-polling. But I guarantee that in Nov 2026, the number of people who say the expiration of the Covid enhanced subsidies affected their votes will be miniscule. People's memories are not that good. Without looking it up, what was the big issue one year ago today? Take a guess.

If the GOP is in denial about 2026, the Dems are in DEEP denial about the long term in 2025. In 2030, the Census is going to transfer 14 electoral votes (and House seats) from blue states to red ones. That's an effective 28 seat switch in the zero-sum game of politics. The 2030's are going to be tough for Dems.

BTW, the big news story in Dec 2024 was the LA fires. If you got that right, then you're the rare exceptional political wonk and I salute you!