The Recovery Thread

[Old Rocks]

Worms eye view again. Our steel mill payed out another small profit sharing check to all employees. And we are adding jobs now, two or three a week.

Of course, we are a Russian owned company, and they are doing dumb things like giving us some really nice bennies to keep their work force stable, I guess we don't count.

 

[Old Rocks]

Yes the recovery is in full swing 6 months after Obama & Bernanke said the recession is over.

The U.S. government owns nearly 80 percent of AIG after its $182.3 billion rescue. AIG just reported another quarterly loss of $8.9 billion.

January new-home sales lowest in nearly 50 years.

National Association of Realtors said Friday that Sales of existing homes unexpectedly fell 7.2 percent.

Hows that stimulus working out for you? How about that jobs summit last month? While Obama is busy throwing lavish White House parties & campaigning for socialism, America lost over 4.1 million jobs in the year of 2009. Obama Presides Over Most Jobs Lost Since 1940.

Nearly 20 percent of the U.S. workforce lacked adequate employment in January and struggled to make ends meet with reduced resources and bleak job prospects, according to a Gallup poll released on Tuesday.

And none of this had anything at all to do with the actions of the administration that was in power from 2001 until 2009?

 

[Neubarth]

And none of this had anything at all to do with the actions of the administration that was in power from 2001 until 2009?

Actually ALL of this had to do with POLITICS AS USUAL for the past twenty years.

It is now time to undo all of that damage. Unfortunately, we do not have a president who will lead us in that direction. He just wants more of the same.

We need a complete makeover in our political system.

 

[Toro]

The recovery will be anemic and choppy.

This is a very different type of recession than the recessions that were prevalent from WWII to the end of the century. Prior recessions were based upon inventory cycles and changes in demand. This is a balance sheet recession whereby the economy must expunge the debt from its system after an enormous asset bubble. There have been many of these types of recessions elsewhere, and they all play out pretty similarly. The contraction bottoms, and rather than a sharp recovery typical of inventory and demand recessions, demand remains anemic for a long while as it takes time to clear out the bad debt in the system. Growth is below trend and unemployment remains high. This is what is going to happen to the US economy over the next few years. Growth will be slow, data will be choppy, and there is a greater than usual chance of slipping back into recession.

 

[Neubarth]

The recovery will be anemic and choppy.

This is a very different type of recession than the recessions that were prevalent from WWII to the end of the century. Prior recessions were based upon inventory cycles and changes in demand. This is a balance sheet recession whereby the economy must expunge the debt from its system after an enormous asset bubble. There have been many of these types of recessions elsewhere, and they all play out pretty similarly. The contraction bottoms, and rather than a sharp recovery typical of inventory and demand recessions, demand remains anemic for a long while as it takes time to clear out the bad debt in the system. Growth is below trend and unemployment remains high. This is what is going to happen to the US economy over the next few years. Growth will be slow, data will be choppy, and there is a greater than usual chance of slipping back into recession.

Slipping back? We are in a DEPRESSION. We have not seen any substantive data to suggest otherwise. Government purchased GDP numbers do not show that the service sector that fuels 70 percent of our economy has stopped collapsing. The surest indicator of what is happening in the service sector is the weekly unadulterated Unemployment Insurance Claims numbers. Any number above 350K tells you that unemployment is increasing and that means people are being laid off from their service sector jobs. With actual unemployment at Depression era levels, we can not claim that this is a recession. It is far worse than that.

The unemployment surveys supposedly conducted by the government are just a ruse to hide the actual unemployment problem. None of that data is reliable because it is usually fiction. The Universities around the country know the actual unemployment numbers and it is frightening. The common average is that 33 million Americans who used to have jobs are now not working. For most of them, there are no jobs where they live or are capable of commuting to. If there are no jobs and they have not applied to any jobs because there are no jobs, the DOL says they are no long looking for work and thus they are not in the Labor Force. That is totally bogus. In farm towns in the California Central Valley where the unemployment rate is fifty percent, the DOL says most of those unemployed are no longer in the Labor Force, thus they no longer count as unemployed. With tricks like that, the DOL can say that fifty percent unemployment is really only seven percent unemployment. Thus, we really do not have a serious problem.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Neubarth, no, we are not in a Depression. The only depression around here is the state of your mind and the one at the back of your head. But you are fun to read.

 

[Neubarth]

Neubarth, no, we are not in a Depression. The only depression around here is the state of your mind and the one at the back of your head. But you are fun to read.

You can lie all you want, but 33 million unemployed people are a reality. INSANE Clowns like you who think it is funny that all of these people are destitute and out of work. You are beneath contempt and worthy of only one thing, being turned into fertilizer.

Now, if you do not see the ravages of the economic collapse, where do you live?

 

[Neubarth]

It is time for a revolution. I have got my guns and am prepared to go to war. Are you?

 

[Toro]

It is time for a revolution. I have got my guns and am prepared to go to war. Are you?

When are you starting?

There are at least a few others here at USMB who will join you.

I won't, but please let me know when the first attack starts so I can position myself accordingly.

 

[Neubarth]

My war will be defensive, Toro. I have been involved in self defense and national defense for many a year. I have no problem with filling the street in front of my house with bodies. The riots will start soon. Are you prepared to defend that which is yours? Will you die to defend your wife and children? Or are you a sacrificial lamb?

 

[Toro]

When this war begins, myself and my family are outta here.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Neubarth, no, we are not in a Depression. The only depression around here is the state of your mind and the one at the back of your head. But you are fun to read.

You can lie all you want, but 33 million unemployed people are a reality. INSANE Clowns like you who think it is funny that all of these people are destitute and out of work need to be disposed of. You are beneath contempt and worthy of only one thing, being turned into fertilizer. Where do you live?

You are spreading your own manure in USMB, neubarth, so you don't need me to help you. The insanities of the far left and far right are simply that, insanity.

 

[Neubarth]

Neubarth, no, we are not in a Depression. The only depression around here is the state of your mind and the one at the back of your head. But you are fun to read.

You can lie all you want, but 33 million unemployed people are a reality. INSANE Clowns like you who think it is funny that all of these people are destitute and out of work need to be disposed of. You are beneath contempt and worthy of only one thing, being turned into fertilizer. Where do you live?

You are spreading your own manure in USMB, neubarth, so you don't need me to help you. The insanities of the far left and far right are simply that, insanity.

Your rantings are so much childish nonsense from a very, very low IQ buffoon. I am a centrist and always have been. Show me some valid data to support your position that this is not a depression. I will not accept the nonsense of the United States government as the data are all contrived and totally corrupt.......

 

[Neubarth]

When this war begins, myself and my family are outta here.

Detroit will be the key indicator of how out of control the cities of the US can be. Watch the riots in Detroit and then head back to your native land and the sanity among the farmers of central Canada. You will welcome the safety and security of your native country to the mass mayhem of the United States in the coming months.

 

[Toro]

When this war begins, myself and my family are outta here.

Detroit will be the key indicator of how out of control the cities of the US can be. Watch the riots in Detroit and then head back to your native land and the sanity among the farmers of central Canada. You will welcome the safety and security of your native country to the mass mayhem of the United States in the coming months.

Thanks, I appreciate that.

Just let me know when its about to start.

 

[Toro]

ISM Services Manufacturing index came in at 53, more than expected. A reading above 50 means there is expansion in the services economy.

U.S. Economy: Services Expand More Than Anticipated (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

 

[mayya555]

My war will be defensive, Toro. I have been involved in self defense and national defense for many a year. I have no problem with filling the street in front of my house with bodies. The riots will start soon. Are you prepared to defend that which is yours? Will you die to defend your wife and children? Or are you a sacrificial lamb?

This sounds at least...SCARY.

 

[Toro]

Retail sales for February rose 0.3%, 0.8% excluding autos, which was probably affected by the Toyota issue. And this was in a month which saw record snowfalls in the northeast. Electronics led the way, rising 3.7%.

Retail sales rose 4.2% from a year ago.

Econoday Report: Retail Sales March 12, 2010

 

[Neubarth]

Retail sales for February rose 0.3%, 0.8% excluding autos, which was probably affected by the Toyota issue. And this was in a month which saw record snowfalls in the northeast. Electronics led the way, rising 3.7%.

Retail sales rose 4.2% from a year ago.

Econoday Report: Retail Sales*March*12,*2010

this is proof positive that Obama's positive attitude can rally America to rebuild our service sector economy that the Republicans almost ruined. Let's make Obama President for Life. (Presidente por Vida!)

 

[Toro]

Rail freight is improving, with volumes rising nearly 4% compared to last year.

CARPE DIEM: Rail Freight Continues to Show Signs of Recovery

Rail freight is a good real-time indicator of the economy since it measures demand being shipped around the nation.