The rapid rise of Hurricane Matthew

[Crick]

Some short while back there were some exchanges about what's important in the development of a hurricane. Deniers FCT and Billy Bob put great emphasis on shear and humidity. I argued heated surface waters were critical. So, we now have a hurricane that's been sitting off the northern coast of South America where it was facing wind shear and dry air coming off the continent. The only factor seemingly present was abnormally hot surface water. What did it do? It went from a CAT1 to a CAT5 in less than 24 hours..

Please explain.

 

[gipper]

Its warn on the Earth's equator....who knew?

 

[Crick]

Everyone.

 

[gipper]

Anyone?

 

[ScienceRocks]

It is the first cat5 in 9 years since Hurricane Felix of 2007...The longest drought in the satellite age. I'd argue hurricane Igor was probably a cat5 but it didn't have any recon flown into it. The record within the historical record going back to 1851 is 1938 hurricane to 1953.

Matthew developed a upper level anti-cyclone(high pressure area) that protected it from the shear. The shear from the ULL(Upper level low) sitting northwest of the cyclone created a outflow jet at the upper levels. Outflow jet move air away from center of the cyclone allowing for pressure to lower and convection to intensify as a upper level anti-cyclone is divergence at the upper levels and convergent a the lower levels..

Yes, warm water is very important, but the caribbean was just as hot in 2013, 2014 and 2015. Lastly, being that the dew points are probably in the mid 70's to mid 80's in topical northern-southern America means it probably doesn't have the same "dry air" effect as a tropical cyclone moving towards the east coast of the United states or gulf coast would. I'd worry more about SAL(Saharan dry air) that helps cap the tropics, which is a huge factor in the inability of tropical cyclone formation within the mdr the last few years.

Many of the sheared systems this season didn't stack the anti-cyclone on top of the lower levels(circulation), which either sheared the cyclones convection away from the low level circulations or the ull(most MDR systems the past few years below 20)/trough(Colin, t.d 8) did it. You do make a ok case as the high oceanic temperatures of the caribbean do allow for the process to take off quite fast and this is why most cat5's in the history of the Atlantic ocean have formed in the caribbean! Once you have a cyclone of respectable strength It just gets stronger as it has a lot of fuel to tap if it isn't over powered by a trough or a ull.

Both of you are right as shear, dew point and sst's are all important.

 

[skookerasbil]

Oh Gawd...........for the first time, I see Crick post up a thread thinking I can come in and agree with him on what is looming as a real threat for the eastern seaboard and what does he do?

He pulls a full-on k00k presentation and relates it to global warming despite no hurricanes hitting the US in over 4,000 days!!

s0n......you've spent far too long out on boats in the middle of nowhere. The setting screws are fucked at this point but given my experience, OCD is almost certainly at the "disorder level". Swear to God.....pharmacological aids are wonderful things and can dramatically impact somebody's life. Works at fixing the levels of serotonin uptake effectively short circuiting the rumination of thoughts. PS s0n.....if you have a history of depression on either side of the family, THAT is the marker. OCD screws the thought processing......has nothing at all to do with intelligence......which is why I never refer to these people in here as morons or idiots. Its a mental disorder......tens of millions of Americans are afflicted by it. Not your fault dude.........

 

[Crick]

With regards to global warming and its intensification of hurricanes, please explain how striking the US coastline matters.

 

[Book of Jeremiah]

Some short while back there were some exchanges about what's important in the development of a hurricane. Deniers FCT and Billy Bob put great emphasis on shear and humidity. I argued heated surface waters were critical. So, we now have a hurricane that's been sitting off the northern coast of South America where it was facing wind shear and dry air coming off the continent. The only factor seemingly present was abnormally hot surface water. What did it do? It went from a CAT1 to a CAT5 in less than 24 hours..

Please explain.

Considering what just happened in Jerusalem last month. I'm surprised it would need any explaining at all. The judgment of God is in these floods, storms, earthquakes but some do not see it. What the Vatican is doing (with the full assistance of the US and famous Ministers who have sold out to the "Unity Faith" (otherwise known as "interfaithism" - the NWO One World Religion) is an abomination unto God. The Vatican is in their final move to seize Jerusalem (eastern Jerusalem and the Temple Mount) and what America can expect out of this betrayal and all of her sins - is major earthquakes (such as this generation has not witnessed before) major hurricanes / tornadoes, floods and more... The world will call it global warming while those who know the LORD call it the judgment of God.

The judgment that is coming that many do not see is famine. There is a famine coming to America. What is happening right now is leading up to it.

 

[PredFan]

Some short while back there were some exchanges about what's important in the development of a hurricane. Deniers FCT and Billy Bob put great emphasis on shear and humidity. I argued heated surface waters were critical. So, we now have a hurricane that's been sitting off the northern coast of South America where it was facing wind shear and dry air coming off the continent. The only factor seemingly present was abnormally hot surface water. What did it do? It went from a CAT1 to a CAT5 in less than 24 hours..

Please explain.

It's summer stupid.

 

[PredFan]

With regards to global warming and its intensification of hurricanes, please explain how striking the US coastline matters.

Except that we have not seen intensification of hurricanes. Your post dies right there.

Cherry picked AGW data in 5....4....3....2....

 

[Crick]

As oceans warm, it is unavoidable that there will be an increase in storm numbers, duration and/or intensity. That is, after all, where storms get most of their energy.

 

[PredFan]

As oceans warm, it is unavoidable that there will be an increase in storm numbers, duration and/or intensity. That is, after all, where storms get most of their energy.

So we name more storms than we used to. Meh.

 

[Crick]

One step above simply claiming its all made up.

 

[Pogo]

Some short while back there were some exchanges about what's important in the development of a hurricane. Deniers FCT and Billy Bob put great emphasis on shear and humidity. I argued heated surface waters were critical. So, we now have a hurricane that's been sitting off the northern coast of South America where it was facing wind shear and dry air coming off the continent. The only factor seemingly present was abnormally hot surface water. What did it do? It went from a CAT1 to a CAT5 in less than 24 hours..

Please explain.

It's summer stupid.

Summer's over, Rip van Wrinkle.

 

[Moonglow]

Some short while back there were some exchanges about what's important in the development of a hurricane. Deniers FCT and Billy Bob put great emphasis on shear and humidity. I argued heated surface waters were critical. So, we now have a hurricane that's been sitting off the northern coast of South America where it was facing wind shear and dry air coming off the continent. The only factor seemingly present was abnormally hot surface water. What did it do? It went from a CAT1 to a CAT5 in less than 24 hours..

Please explain.

It's summer stupid.

Hardly so, as summer left on Thursday...

 

[Pogo]

Summer in October. What'll they think of next.

 

[Billy_Bob]

As oceans warm, it is unavoidable that there will be an increase in storm numbers, duration and/or intensity. That is, after all, where storms get most of their energy.

IN 1992 we change storm naming metrics because the number of storms was waning and going in the direction of less storms, which did not fare well in the global warming alarmist camp.

if you used the same metrics as were used prior to 1992 we would be at an all time low.. Funny that you proved you will post garbage by not posting the clarification that goes with that graph stating the change... Deception is it?

 

[Billy_Bob]

One step above simply claiming its all made up.

HE was being kind.. It is all made up..

 

[Billy_Bob]

Some short while back there were some exchanges about what's important in the development of a hurricane. Deniers FCT and Billy Bob put great emphasis on shear and humidity. I argued heated surface waters were critical. So, we now have a hurricane that's been sitting off the northern coast of South America where it was facing wind shear and dry air coming off the continent. The only factor seemingly present was abnormally hot surface water. What did it do? It went from a CAT1 to a CAT5 in less than 24 hours..

Please explain.

Simple....

Dry air on one side, Wet warm air on the other and the convergence of two jet streams creating an eddy in the atmosphere without upper level wind shear to tear it apart. This storm will soon meet upper level wind shears.. watch what happens..

5 hours ago it was down graded to Cat 4, just one hour ago it was down graded to Cat 3, It has meet with the wind shear. I expect this storm to go down one more level in the next few hours before being torn apart in 24-48 hours.

 

[Billy_Bob]

http://48095362.r.msn.com/?ld=d3pNRJBa5elgXDJVkgzSCrDzVUCUzF8tAADARJIGbqhVOygvOULuN2DkRlDRgy8EddGxxLbsqnJPxYPtnLdw_5etLlyRGqexuoszO6kjmGiELKD5UygiMyvmiGvFjwBWB_r9mW88PVqvTkgHc_TbalStSgG_V6z9BavmEPOqPaUMIXtShT&u=https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-storm-hurricane-matthew-caribbean-us-forecast?cm_ven=PS_BI_Matthew_9282016_1&par=MK_BI

The cone of uncertainty is huge just 24 hours out.. Modeling of this storm shows they doesnt have a clue where its going or if it will last 24 hours..