The Phantom's Polling Analysis Thread

[BluePhantom]

A friend--I would encourager her to identify herself if she so wishes--just made me aware of an interesting situation.

To wit:

FACT: In January 2012, Scytl acquired U.S.-based SOE Software. SOE writes "election management" programs that assist officials with everything from "Internet voting to election night reporting and online poll worker training."
RealClearPolitics - Scytl: Voter Fraud Facts and Fiction

And who owns SCYTL? None other than George Soros.

I mention this as a heads up that we really need to pay attention to sources and methodology when we evaluate these polls. Most especially those that don't give us a lot of information on how they were done.

Edit: The friend gave me permission to name her. PoliticalChic, who is also following this thread, had mentioned SCYTL and the potention for at least allegations for scandal inherent in that.

I saw that.......I am going to research that a bit and see what I can find out.

 

[PoliticalChic]

A friend--I would encourager her to identify herself if she so wishes--just made me aware of an interesting situation.

To wit:

FACT: In January 2012, Scytl acquired U.S.-based SOE Software. SOE writes "election management" programs that assist officials with everything from "Internet voting to election night reporting and online poll worker training."
RealClearPolitics - Scytl: Voter Fraud Facts and Fiction

And who owns SCYTL? None other than George Soros.

I mention this as a heads up that we really need to pay attention to sources and methodology when we evaluate these polls. Most especially those that don't give us a lot of information on how they were done.

Edit: The friend gave me permission to name her. PoliticalChic, who is also following this thread, had mentioned SCYTL and the potention for at least allegations for scandal inherent in that.

I saw that.......I am going to research that a bit and see what I can find out.

"FICTION: Chain e-mails about Scytl claim that George Soros owns, operates or controls Scytl. In reality, the company's investors are Nauta Capital, Balderton Capital and Spinnaker SCR. Soros doesn't "own" any of these international venture capital firms -- and as far as my research shows, he has no involvement whatsoever with any of them. Moreover, Scytl's board of directors doesn't include anyone with Soros financial or management ties."
Scytl: Voter Fraud Facts and Fiction - Michelle Malkin - Townhall Conservative Columnists

 

[Foxfyre]

You're right PC, and my bad. I somehow read Soros into that paragraph that I quoted and didn't read far enough down into my own source to see that SCYTL is not a George Soros enterprise or plot.

I try really hard not to do that, but. . . .feet of clay and all that. . . .

So we can file this one in the 'possible mitigating factors' file. It is a reminder, however, how polling data can be manipulated and compromised to appear to be something entirely different than what actually exists.

 

[PoliticalChic]

You're right PC, and my bad. I somehow read Soros into that paragraph that I quoted and didn't read far enough down into my own source to see that SCYTL is not a George Soros enterprise or plot.

I try really hard not to do that, but. . . .feet of clay and all that. . . .

So we can file this one in the 'possible mitigating factors' file. It is a reminder, however, how polling data can be manipulated and compromised to appear to be something entirely different than what actually exists.

Seems to me we worked on this together...

both uneasy about other than American group counting our votes....

But we got to the bottom of it....
...jointly!

F & P, Private Eyes.

 

[saveliberty]

Your research also pointed out that the software was hackable, on multiple occassions. The spector of a stolen election has arisen already. The local election officials here are mostly 70+ year olds with little knowledge of computers. A four percent shift would have major effects if done on a wide spread basis.

 

[swizzlee]

Regarding swing states.........

Just before Obama announced his gay evolution, it seems he and Mitt were only about a point apart in FL. I felt at the time that the gay issue would have a strong impact on senior voters in FL who do not adapt as well to major changes in social issues.

Today Rasmussen's FL poll now shows Mitt 6 points ahead of the O. Hmmmmm....!

I personally feel this stat may not change much running up to the election thus throwing this swing state into the red column.

 

[saveliberty]

Several of the swing states are in the south and midwest. The economy and social issues will have the most play there.

 

[BluePhantom]

Regarding swing states.........

Just before Obama announced his gay evolution, it seems he and Mitt were only about a point apart in FL. I felt at the time that the gay issue would have a strong impact on senior voters in FL who do not adapt as well to major changes in social issues.

Today Rasmussen's FL poll now shows Mitt 6 points ahead of the O. Hmmmmm....!

I personally feel this stat may not change much running up to the election thus throwing this swing state into the red column.

I tend to agree with you. I think this will be particularly evident in the south (I have said ever since that announcement that Obama handed North Carolina to Romney on a silver platter and the trends suggest that is happening) but it will have an effect in traditional blue states as well. Despite the stereotypes liberal voters have contributed strongly to bans on gay marriage in Michigan, California, Oregon, etc so there's a lot of Democratic voters who do not favor gay marriage. Now I don't think Obama's stance on gay marriage alone will be enough to swing Oregon to Romney or something like that, but if it's close it just might have an effect.

I was really shocked that he came out in support of it frankly. Strategically speaking it's a huge gamble and one that I don't think will pay off for him.

 

[Foxfyre]

Regarding swing states.........

Just before Obama announced his gay evolution, it seems he and Mitt were only about a point apart in FL. I felt at the time that the gay issue would have a strong impact on senior voters in FL who do not adapt as well to major changes in social issues.

Today Rasmussen's FL poll now shows Mitt 6 points ahead of the O. Hmmmmm....!

I personally feel this stat may not change much running up to the election thus throwing this swing state into the red column.

I hope you're right Swizzlee. I also hope you are finding USMB to be a good experience.

Unfortunately, I have too often hoped too much that this issue or that issue would swing an election. But alas, the electorate has a very short memory and too often can be swung in a different election by a carefully orchestrated event intended to affect the vote. We still have five months to go. That's huge in the life of a campaign.

 

[BluePhantom]

Regarding swing states.........

Just before Obama announced his gay evolution, it seems he and Mitt were only about a point apart in FL. I felt at the time that the gay issue would have a strong impact on senior voters in FL who do not adapt as well to major changes in social issues.

Today Rasmussen's FL poll now shows Mitt 6 points ahead of the O. Hmmmmm....!

I personally feel this stat may not change much running up to the election thus throwing this swing state into the red column.

I hope you're right Swizzlee. I also hope you are finding USMB to be a good experience.

Unfortunately, I have too often hoped too much that this issue or that issue would swing an election. But alas, the electorate has a very short memory and too often can be swung in a different election by a carefully orchestrated event intended to affect the vote. We still have five months to go. That's huge in the life of a campaign.

Agreed, but I think the results of the Likely Voter Report is particularly telling. I can assure you that Obama's campaign has done something very similar and i can guarantee you that they don't like what they see

 

[Foxfyre]

Regarding swing states.........

Just before Obama announced his gay evolution, it seems he and Mitt were only about a point apart in FL. I felt at the time that the gay issue would have a strong impact on senior voters in FL who do not adapt as well to major changes in social issues.

Today Rasmussen's FL poll now shows Mitt 6 points ahead of the O. Hmmmmm....!

I personally feel this stat may not change much running up to the election thus throwing this swing state into the red column.

I hope you're right Swizzlee. I also hope you are finding USMB to be a good experience.

Unfortunately, I have too often hoped too much that this issue or that issue would swing an election. But alas, the electorate has a very short memory and too often can be swung in a different election by a carefully orchestrated event intended to affect the vote. We still have five months to go. That's huge in the life of a campaign.

Agreed, but I think the results of the Likely Voter Report is particularly telling. I can assure you that Obama's campaign has done something very similar and i can guarantee you that they don't like what they see

Which is no doubt why they aren't posting their numbers. And why we are seeing a whole cast of villains to blame trotted out, one by one:
George W. Bush
The Republicans
Wallstreet
The 1 percenters
The corporate jet owners
Romney's business experience
Romney's busines experience is useless to qualify one for President
and most recently, the Tea Party.

It must be really frustrating for the Obama people to not get the poll numbers to move as each new villain is displayed.

 

[swizzlee]

I was really shocked that he came out in support of it frankly. Strategically speaking it's a huge gamble and one that I don't think will pay off for him.

I don't believe he really had a choice after Bumbling Biden opened the door and the media started another feeding frenzy du jour. When he didn't make it a political issue but tried to present it as just his personal opinion, one analyst described this tactic as "I'm not going to piss off my hetero base but I'll give a wink and a nod to my gay base to let them know I'm really with them and hope to hell they'll still open their wallets because we really, really need the money."

I'm a bit more familiar with the various groups in FL than I am with states like OR. Sometimes these issues have a much stronger impact in some states while having very little on others.

I have this bizarre comedy routine going thru my mind where Biden is intentionally creating problems for Obama with his loose lips, just praying he will F-up once too often and Obama will yell "Out, damn Biden, out I say!"

 

[BluePhantom]

Which is no doubt why they aren't posting their numbers. And why we are seeing a whole cast of villains to blame trotted out, one by one:
George W. Bush
The Republicans
Wallstreet
The 1 percenters
The corporate jet owners
Romney's business experience
Romney's busines experience is useless to qualify one for President
and most recently, the Tea Party.

It must be really frustrating for the Obama people to not get the poll numbers to move as each new villain is displayed.

Well as I noted there is some movement but it's not going to Obama. It's all going from both of them to "undecided". Why is anyone's guess and I imagine those things contribute to some degree, but so does the crappy economy. But you know...this is going to be a very dirty election on both sides. No one is going to play nice on this one.

 

[BluePhantom]

I was really shocked that he came out in support of it frankly. Strategically speaking it's a huge gamble and one that I don't think will pay off for him.

I don't believe he really had a choice after Bumbling Biden opened the door and the media started another feeding frenzy du jour. When he didn't make it a political issue but tried to present it as just his personal opinion, one analyst described this tactic as "I'm not going to piss off my hetero base but I'll give a wink and a nod to my gay base to let them know I'm really with them and hope to hell they'll still open their wallets because we really, really need the money."

I'm a bit more familiar with the various groups in FL than I am with states like OR. Sometimes these issues have a much stronger impact in some states while having very little on others.

I have this bizarre comedy routine going thru my mind where Biden is intentionally creating problems for Obama with his loose lips, just praying he will F-up once too often and Obama will yell "Out, damn Biden, out I say!"

And there's probably a lot of truth to that. Obama said he supported gay marriage but felt it was a states rights issue. In other words: "I support it but don't hold your breath waiting for me to actually do something about it." Pretty pussy move if you ask me. Basically, he's trying to have it both ways

 

[Foxfyre]

Which is no doubt why they aren't posting their numbers. And why we are seeing a whole cast of villains to blame trotted out, one by one:
George W. Bush
The Republicans
Wallstreet
The 1 percenters
The corporate jet owners
Romney's business experience
Romney's busines experience is useless to qualify one for President
and most recently, the Tea Party.

It must be really frustrating for the Obama people to not get the poll numbers to move as each new villain is displayed.

Well as I noted there is some movement but it's not going to Obama. It's all going from both of them to "undecided". Why is anyone's guess and I imagine those things contribute to some degree, but so does the crappy economy. But you know...this is going to be a very dirty election on both sides. No one is going to play nice on this one.

And here you may be onto something. (And I left the "war on women" off that list. That one is a biggie too. ) Could it be that the Obama administration is sort of shooting itself in the foot by trotting out all this assortment of villains and it is actually beginning to look like the 'blame game' that it is to people who once supported him but actually still have sort of a clue? And it is that which isn't playing well in Peoria?

Obama's record is way too vulnerable to use to his benefit with any other than hardcore supporters who would vote for him if they found out he was still having dog for lunch and was burying survivors in the back yard at the White House. They don't care whether he does good or does evil. They only care that he is the candidate with the D after his name.

Certainly Obama's dirt hunters are scouring the universe looking for ANYTHING they can use to damn Romney. But maybe, just maybe, the polls are beginning to reflect a distaste for the nonstop attack machine? And people are finally beginning to stop and actually think?

 

[swizzlee]

FF, I know what you mean by "hoping" but I'm not trying to apply this issue to all states.

To be honest, just because FL has now swung to Romney doesn't mean it's entirely because of his stand on the gay issue.

Many of these swing states have not been polled in a long time. We could end up being surprised by many of them once a new poll is finally taken. Frankly, I was surprised by the size of the swing in FL. This race may not be nearly as close as many in the media thinks it is..............

 

[BluePhantom]

And here you may be onto something. (And I left the "war on women" off that list. That one is a biggie too. ) Could it be that the Obama administration is sort of shooting itself in the foot by trotting out all this assortment of villains and it is actually beginning to look like the 'blame game' that it is to people who once supported him but actually still have sort of a clue? And it is that which isn't playing well in Peoria?

It's very possible. Most polls that I have looked at seem to indicate that when it comes to all these side issues most people really don't give a damn and those that do seem to cancel each other out for the most part. But the economy is still #1 on every list of what matters to the voters. So I think it's quite possible that people are looking at this laundry list of attacks on Romney and perhaps it's swaying a few people but it seems that just as many might be saying "don't try to distract from the lousy economy with a bunch of bullshit that I don't give a rats ass about". That would probably result in lower voter turnout and that favors Romney.

Obama's record is way too vulnerable to use to his benefit with any other than hardcore supporters who would vote for him if they found out he was still having dog for lunch and was burying survivors in the back yard at the White House. They don't care whether he does good or does evil. They only care that he is the candidate with the D after his name.

I would tend to agree. I would say that the reverse is true as well: that there are those who will disregard anything positive about Obama simply because there is a D after his name, but...well...first there has to be something positive for him to point to and while a case can be made for a small issue here or there there is simply no case he can make in regards to the economy which is #1.

 

[BluePhantom]

FF, I know what you mean by "hoping" but I'm not trying to apply this issue to all states.

To be honest, just because FL has now swung to Romney doesn't mean it's entirely because of his stand on the gay issue.

Many of these swing states have not been polled in a long time. We could end up being surprised by many of them once a new poll is finally taken. Frankly, I was surprised by the size of the swing in FL. This race may not be nearly as close as many in the media thinks it is..............

Oh I still think it will be real close. I don't think that Florida's hard shift to Romney recently is that much of a shock. It stands to reason that Obama is not going to do any better this year than he did in 2008. On election day 2008 Obama's popularity was soaring, the market had just crashed and people were irate with the GOP because they were hemorrhaging money, their retirement accounts and 401ks were taking a nose dive, etc. The Democrats, to their credit, did an excellent job of blaming the GOP and the result was a massacre.

Well...look....things have changed. The economy hasn't improved. Obama's popularity is nowhere near where it was four years ago. People are pissed about the ACA and record levels of debt. So to suggest that Obama will come close to matching his performance in 2008 is completely unrealistic.

Well you know....despite all the things going in Obama's favor in 2008 he still only took Florida with 51%, Virginia with 53%, North Carolina with 50%, Ohio with only 52%....so we look at the EV count and say "wow what a slam dunk in 2008" but those swing states went to Obama by some pretty slim margins even with a lot of things going very strongly in his favor.

He does not have those advantages this time so for Florida to start swinging hard toward Romney is really no shock and frankly I would expect the others to follow suit

 

[swizzlee]

Ah, but I wasn't shocked that FL swung to Romney. It was the size of the swing. I had failed to remember that these states hadn't been polled in a long time. So as I told FF, we could be seeing a number of these "big" swings in the near future.

I don't think it'll be as close as you. I tend to think Romney will be getting basically the same percentages as Obama did in '08 - 51, 52, 53.

 

[BluePhantom]

Ah, but I wasn't shocked that FL swung to Romney. It was the size of the swing. I had failed to remember that these states hadn't been polled in a long time. So as I told FF, we could be seeing a number of these "big" swings in the near future.

I don't think it'll be as close as you. I tend to think Romney will be getting basically the same percentages as Obama did in '08 - 51, 52, 53.

I would certainly love to see a Romney massacre. I am a pretty strict "numbers guy" though when it comes to stuff like this and unfortunately some of these critical swing states just are not getting enough polling for me to feel terribly confident about the direction they are heading and the polls that are available are a lot of PPP polls, which I personally don't have a lot of faith in right now for reasons I have made pretty clear already.

As far as the dramatic swing in Florida. I really don't think it was that dramatic. Three weeks ago the average was Romney +1 and now it's Romney +6. Well a five point swing in three weeks really isn't all that incredible assuming things continue to proceed according to the trends. I understand there was the Suffolk/Channel 7 News poll last week that had Obama up by a point but I think we can safely say that was a bullshit poll even though I have to include it in the calculations and pay it a little lip service....I mean....I don't think many people really took that poll very seriously.