1. It has become a waste of time to discuss whether or not Obama can/will win.
He is more burned than Edgar Winter on an Ecuadoran beach.
Wishful thinking. Actually, I think Obama has a pretty good chance of winning re-election, because almost all of the GOP choices suck. I've voted Republican in every presidential election since 1980, and frankly, the only one I would even consider voting for is Perry.
If you look at the five presidents who have been voted out in the last century (Taft, Hoover, Ford, Carter and Bush-41) you have a lot of elements that are missing this time. Obama will face no internal party challenger and if there is a third party challenge, it will be splitting the GOP, not his base. not to mention he'll have a billion dollars to bank and the power of the incumbancy.
2. Oscar Wilde: “There are only two tragedies in life: one is not getting what one wants, and the other is getting it.”
a. There is a very good chance the Republicans will controll the Executive, and the Legislative. Good? Are you happy with the current results of such a monopoly?
b. The two periods of fiscal responsibility in six decades were the Eisenhower and the Clinton administrations, periods during which the presidency and Congress were
controlled by different parties. William A. Niskanen, “A Case For Divided Government,”
A Case for Divided Government | William A. Niskanen | Cato Institute: Daily Commentary
The flaw in that thinking is giving credit to the political situation for the economic one. In Ike's case, he benefited from the political advantage of the huge post WWII boom where the US had the only standing industrial infrastructure. We were raking it in because we were exporting to rebuild the rest of the world. We still had huge government spending- the largest domestic building program of the Interstate highway system and huge cold war spending. But we also had a vibrant middle class (mostly unionized) making good wages and the FDR taxes on the wealthy were in place.
Same deal with Clinton. Had little to do with the Bickersons of Bill and Newt. We had a boom based on a tech bubble and a housing bubble, both of which eventually burst, with the horrific results we saw in the "Oughts".
c.
The worst spending periods were those with one party in charge: 1967 and 1968, LBJ and the Democrats, spending increased 11.6% a year.
Historical Tables | The White House (table 1.1)
Yet despite the Great Society, the Vietnam War and the Space Program, LBJ still managed to post surpluses. Again, the US Economy was a powerful enough engine to do all those things.
3. The good news? If the Republicans keep their promises, they should have at least eight years....and a couple of supreme court justices.
Again, I don't think Romney can beat Obama. But even if he does, he'll probably lose one or both houses of Congress in 2014. More to the point, would you trust any Supreme Court justice Romney appoints? Mr. "I'll be better for gays than Ted Kennedy" Romney? Yeah, maybe Scalia or Thomas might feel like retiring because there's a Republican in, but I don't see him appointing anyone that conservative.
a. "The common wisdom holds that 'both parties' have to appeal to the extremes during the primary and then move to the center for the general election. To the contrary, both parties run for office as conservatives. Once they have fooled the voters and are safely in office, Republicans sometimes double-cross the voters. Democrats always do."
Coulter, 11-27-03
4. Hope for the best, but expect the worst.
You lose credibility when you quote a bomb-thrower like Coulter.
I have no real expectations, because I think a choice between Romney and Obama is like a choice between a stick in the eye... and a stick in the eye.