The Indexes are down strongly today (January 29th)!

[Luckyone]

I stated this past week in my newsletter last Sunday the following:

As far as the weekly closes on Friday. this past week was basically uneventful, given that with the exception of the NASDAQ (who closed minimally green), the indexes generated a minimally red week. There was a lot of movement during the week due to statements and actions by Trump, but other than establishing a new chart support base, the week did not generate any signal of any consequence.

This coming week though, it likely to be the exact opposite as it will have the Fed Rate decision on Wednesday, which will help traders decide what is likely to happen in February, and then the weekly and monthly closes on Friday, which are likely to support the January seasonal tendency (to be an up month) as well as give clues as to whether the seasonal tendency for February (which is to be a down month), will have a good or poor chance to occur.

The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged (neither raise nor lower them) and given that is what is expected, it is not likely to give any ammunition to the bulls if that happens. The weekly closes are important given that if no new all-time highs are made in either the DOW or the SPX, after the last 2 weeks of red occurring, the bears will get new ammunition with which to push downward. And then also on Friday, the monthly closes occur and if they are in the lower half of the monthly trading ranges (DOW below 48743, SPX below 6896, NASDAQ below 25559 and the RUT below 2608), it will strongly suggest that February will be a red month (as the seasonal tendency is to be). It is also important to note that the DOW has generated 9 green months in a row and has increased in value 18% during that time, meaning that a correction to the rally is way overdue and highly likely to begin to happen in February.

Adding to all of this, the US economy is showing multiple, distinct signs of cooling down and slowing from the robust, rapid growth experienced in mid-2025, according to data from late 2025 and early 2026. While a recession is not currently in effect, key indicators suggest a "low-hire, low-fire" environment is putting pressure on both consumers and businesses. Such a tangibly fundamental scenario, does suggest that selling interest will rise beginning this week.

and now this is actually happening. The indexes actually opened green today but then turned around and right now at 11:00am, the DOW is down 320 points, the SPX is down 100 points, and the NASDAQ is down 590 points.

In the newsletter I stated that the monthly closes were somewhat important, given that if the indexes closed in the lower half of the monthly trading range, the probabilities of going below January's lows in February, would be high. February is usually a seasonal down month:

Over the past 50 years February has been the second worst month of the year, with September being the worst!​

The midpoints of the indexes are as follows

DOW below 47843. Now trading at 48743
SPX below 6896. Now trading at 6871
NASDAQ below 25559. Now trading at 25474

Tomorrow is the monthly close and if the indexes all closed below those midpoints, the probability of February being a down month will increase sharply.

One other thing to mention that could be strongly indicative. A double top is usually a strong sign that an uptrend has ended, It is not 100% indicative but........

AI Overview

Double tops act as a reliable bearish reversal signal, with studies showing they precede a change in trend in approximately 65% to 75% of cases. When properly confirmed by a break below the "neckline," the pattern reaches its target price roughly 71% of the time.

What Is a Double Top?​

A double top is a bearish technical reversal pattern signaling a potential trend change after an asset hits a resistance level twice without breaking through, indicating a potential shift from an uptrend to a downtrend. This pattern, often a cue for traders to initiate short or sell positions, is confirmed when the price drops below the support level, typically marked by the lowest point between the two peaks.

The NASDAQ made a high at 26182 on October 25th and got up to 26165 yesterday (is now down 600 points from yesterday's high). If that is confirmed next week with a drop below the most recent low (neckline) at 24993, the double top will be a reality.

Just giving you the chart information and what it means to the computers, algorithms and big traders in the market.

 

[Manonthestreet]

1% oh my

 

[luiza]

I stated this past week in my newsletter

From the man whose forecasts should always be reversed to get best value .
Change your name to Unlucky Mucky and we might be a little kinder .

 

[SweetTea]

From the man whose forecasts should always be reversed to get best value .
Change your name to Unlucky Mucky and we might be a little kinder .

The strategy is that as long as he sticks to his doom and gloom he will eventually be right and then he will be here to tell us that he told us so.

 

[Luckyone]

The strategy is that as long as he sticks to his doom and gloom he will eventually be right and then he will be here to tell us that he told us so.

You are making one huge mistake. I am not in this for my gratification. For example, I have traded the stock market for 48 years and being a "trader", I have been wrong many times. My trading is not about being wrong or right but about making more money than is lost at the end of the year.

It is the same with my evaluations of the data, statistics and facts regarding Trump. It is not about being right or wrong about any one issue but about making sure that Trump does not do more harm than good to this country at the end of the year.

If you actually evaluate every single post I have ever put up on this board, you will notice that 99% of the time, I include a video, an article, data, statistics, and facts about what Trump has said and done. This is NOT about "sticking to my gloom and doom and when I am right, I will tell you that I told you so" but about making everyone aware of the actions he takes and the benefits and consequences they will or (could) bring, so that you can take actions to prevent it.

My ego is not involved in this at all.

Do you understand that?

 

[Mac-7]

Luckyone

Jan 29 - DOW below 47843. Now trading at 48743


Today, Fed 10 the DOW is over 50,000

So now what do you say?

 

[Luckyone]

Luckyone

Jan 29 - DOW below 47843. Now trading at 48743


Today, Fed 10 the DOW is over 50,000

So now what do you say?

I stated over 4 weeks ago that the 50,000 level, and up to 50,300 - which is the top of what I call the demilitarized zone (300 points above a psychological level as 50k is) would be a magnet. These numbers are all based on the WEEKLY CLOSES, meaning Friday's. Again, I said that over 4 weeks ago in my newsletter when the DOW was first above 49,000). As such, I will take a new look on Friday to see where it closes.

Tomorrow, the always catalytical Jobs report comes out, as well as the CPI report (inflation number) and I do expect the market WILL react to them.

 

[SweetTea]

It is the same with my evaluations of the data, statistics and facts regarding Trump. It is not about being right or wrong about any one issue but about making sure that Trump does not do more harm than good to this country at the end of the year.

If you actually evaluate every single post I have ever put up on this board, you will notice that 99% of the time, I include a video, an article, data, statistics, and facts about what Trump has said and done. This is NOT about "sticking to my gloom and doom and when I am right, I will tell you that I told you so" but about making everyone aware of the actions he takes and the benefits and consequences they will or (could) bring, so that you can take actions to prevent it.

My ego is not involved in this at all.

Do you understand that?

I think you sincerely believe that your dislike of Trump(the man) doesn't influence your analysis and decisions. That doesn't make it so. Don't feel bad, many analysts have the same problem.

Trump's policies are not going to wreck the economy, in fact, if Democrats can manage to stay out of the way, our economy and the stock market will flourish. AI is a huge unknown and will likely negatively affect job numbers. Tariffs aren't having a large impact on inflation, but then again, some of us knew that was going to be the case.

 

[Papageorgio]

You are making one huge mistake. I am not in this for my gratification. For example, I have traded the stock market for 48 years and being a "trader", I have been wrong many times. My trading is not about being wrong or right but about making more money than is lost at the end of the year.

It is the same with my evaluations of the data, statistics and facts regarding Trump. It is not about being right or wrong about any one issue but about making sure that Trump does not do more harm than good to this country at the end of the year.

If you actually evaluate every single post I have ever put up on this board, you will notice that 99% of the time, I include a video, an article, data, statistics, and facts about what Trump has said and done. This is NOT about "sticking to my gloom and doom and when I am right, I will tell you that I told you so" but about making everyone aware of the actions he takes and the benefits and consequences they will or (could) bring, so that you can take actions to prevent it.

My ego is not involved in this at all.

Do you understand that?

The only reason you are init is your gratification, your ego is huge and this is the ninth or tenth thread claiming doom and gloom and one day you may or may not be right but like with zlab, your gift to us, it was another huge dud. Face it you know no more or less than anyone else on the subject.

Sorry, you have looked stupid many times over the last couple of years.

Your hate has you by the balls.

 

[Papageorgio]

I stated over 4 weeks ago that the 50,000 level, and up to 50,300 - which is the top of what I call the demilitarized zone (300 points above a psychological level as 50k is) would be a magnet. These numbers are all based on the WEEKLY CLOSES, meaning Friday's. Again, I said that over 4 weeks ago in my newsletter when the DOW was first above 49,000). As such, I will take a new look on Friday to see where it closes.

Tomorrow, the always catalytical Jobs report comes out, as well as the CPI report (inflation number) and I do expect the market WILL react to them.

And your examination of data led you to be.ieve Harris would win by a landslide and it wasn’t. Your examination of data led you to gift us ZLAB which never occurred and if anyone actually listened to you, would have lost money. Over the past several months you have forecasted the stock market to drop significantly and it has not.

Were your forecasts this much doom and gloom under Biden? Probably not. Face it you are very political and biased when you analyze your data. Until you get that figured out, your tips and forecasts are worthless to anyone with a brain.

 

[Luckyone]

I think you sincerely believe that your dislike of Trump(the man) doesn't influence your analysis and decisions. That doesn't make it so. Don't feel bad, many analysts have the same problem.

Trump's policies are not going to wreck the economy, in fact, if Democrats can manage to stay out of the way, our economy and the stock market will flourish. AI is a huge unknown and will likely negatively affect job numbers. Tariffs aren't having a large impact on inflation, but then again, some of us knew that was going to be the case.

My dislike of Trump was created by Trump himself.

All my life, my guidelines for behavior have followed the idea that a person needs to have morals, ethics, principles and humanity based on human rights (you do not want to do unto others what you do not want them to do unto you).

Most people have at least ONE of those guidelines in their personality, if not more or all. As such, they may be dislikable to a certain degree with the degree being what they do that is right, compared to what they do that is wrong. For example, Lying is against what morals stand for, but "sometimes lying is necessary to accomplish other goals that are worthy-to-all (such as accomplishing humanity for those that need it)", meaning that it is not all bad.

When I realized that Trump has zero of them (guidelines), my dislike/hate became tangible and strong. I am 100% against the kind of person Trump is.

When you can prove that I am wrong in that evaluation of Trump, I will pay attention to your posts.

This means that if you can show me anything that Trump has ever done UNSELFISHLY (without gaining some benefit for himself), I will acknowledge that I am wrong.

By the way, this is NOT about "analyzing" anything, but about what certain human actions always cause. For example, if you hate someone, he is likely to hate you back. It is normal for humans to react that way and that is not about analysis but about knowledge of what humans do (by nature of being human).

It is certainly possible for some actions to do good (for example, Trump being adamant about deporting illegal aliens, especially the criminals), is a good thing. The problem that HE has created (because he is who he is) is that the way he is doing it (by attacking or arresting anyone that LOOKS illegal) is causing problems that are bad and negative. In simple words, his actions do not need to be analyzed to know that he is bringing harm to Americans simply because of the tactics he is using to accomplish the goal.

Simply stated "the end does not justify the means used"

When are you going to wake up and simply realize that Trump is a bad person and also an incompetent person that will bring more harm than good to this nation, SIMPLY BECAUSE of the person he is?

 

[SweetTea]

My dislike of Trump was created by Trump himself.

All my life, my guidelines for behavior have followed the idea that a person needs to have morals, ethics, principles and humanity based on human rights (you do not want to do unto others what you do not want them to do unto you).

Most people have at least ONE of those guidelines in their personality, if not more or all. As such, they may be dislikable to a certain degree with the degree being what they do that is right, compared to what they do that is wrong. For example, Lying is against what morals stand for, but "sometimes lying is necessary to accomplish other goals that are worthy-to-all (such as accomplishing humanity for those that need it)", meaning that it is not all bad.

When I realized that Trump has zero of them, my dislike/hate became tangible and strong. I am 100% against the kind of person Trump is.

When you can prove that I am wrong in that evaluation of Trump, I will pay attention to your posts.

This means that if you can show me anything that Trump has ever done UNSELFISHLY (without gaining some benefit for himself), I will acknowledge that I am wrong.

By the way, this is NOT about "analyzing" anything, but about what certain human actions always cause. For example, if you hate someone, he is likely to hate you back. It is normal for humans to react that way and that is not about analysis but about knowledge of what humans do (by nature of being human).

It is certainly possible for some actions to do good (for example, Trump being adamant about deporting illegal aliens, especially the criminals), is a good thing. The problem that HE has created (because he is who he is) is that the way he is doing it (by attacking or arresting anyone that LOOKS illegal) is causing problems that are bad and negative. In simple words, his actions do not need to be analyzed to know that he is bringing harm to Americans simply because of the tactics he is using to accomplish the goal.

Simply stated "the end does not justify the means used"

When are you going to wake up and simply realize that Trump is a bad person and also an incompetent person that will bring more harm than good to this nation, SIMPLY BECAUSE of the person he is?

Like I said, your hatred of Trump, the man skews your analysis of his policies.

I personally don't care if my heart surgeon is a jerk if he is good at what he does. Trump gets things done instead and isn't scared to tell it like it is. That hurts the feelings of the emotional crowd(liberals) but I couldnt care less. He can be a jerk for sure and he wouldn't likely be my work lunch buddy, but again, I don't care because he actually gets things done and he puts our country first.

 

[Luckyone]

Like I said, your hatred of Trump, the man skews your analysis of his policies.

I personally don't care if my heart surgeon is a jerk if he is good at what he does. Trump gets things done instead and isn't scared to tell it like it is. That hurts the feelings of the emotional crowd(liberals) but I couldnt care less. He can be a jerk for sure and he wouldn't likely be my work lunch buddy, but again, I don't care because he actually gets things done and he puts our country first.

You truly are a cult member as you dismiss everything that you are shown that you do not like.

Let me ask you a simple question, using this response given. "If you are going to have a heart transplant, do you ever ask the doctor that you have chosen, what his track record with heart transplants is? or do you simply believe him when he says "I can do it!"

I am 80 years old and I have had quite a few important and potentially life-changing operations in recent years, and though I generally trust the doctors at the VA, I have always checked fully their track records with the operation that they are going to do with me, before I allow them to do it.

This is in something I have done in spite of the fact that I know that doctors at the VA are not in it for their personal gain/pocketbook.

You used the heart-transplant doctor as an example of being competent in doing his job, then why do you not use the same ideology with Trump? After all and throughout his life he has failed a lot more times than being successful:

If your heart transplant doctor had failed more times than succeeded, would you look for another doctor? Or trust this doctor because he said. "I can do it!"

 

[Luckyone]

I think you sincerely believe that your dislike of Trump(the man) doesn't influence your analysis and decisions. That doesn't make it so. Don't feel bad, many analysts have the same problem.

Trump's policies are not going to wreck the economy, in fact, if Democrats can manage to stay out of the way, our economy and the stock market will flourish. AI is a huge unknown and will likely negatively affect job numbers. Tariffs aren't having a large impact on inflation, but then again, some of us knew that was going to be the case.

Ever hear of the renowned Republican president named Ronald Reagan?

 

[Papageorgio]

My dislike of Trump was created by Trump himself.

All my life, my guidelines for behavior have followed the idea that a person needs to have morals, ethics, principles and humanity based on human rights (you do not want to do unto others what you do not want them to do unto you).

Most people have at least ONE of those guidelines in their personality, if not more or all. As such, they may be dislikable to a certain degree with the degree being what they do that is right, compared to what they do that is wrong. For example, Lying is against what morals stand for, but "sometimes lying is necessary to accomplish other goals that are worthy-to-all (such as accomplishing humanity for those that need it)", meaning that it is not all bad.

When I realized that Trump has zero of them (guidelines), my dislike/hate became tangible and strong. I am 100% against the kind of person Trump is.

When you can prove that I am wrong in that evaluation of Trump, I will pay attention to your posts.

This means that if you can show me anything that Trump has ever done UNSELFISHLY (without gaining some benefit for himself), I will acknowledge that I am wrong.

By the way, this is NOT about "analyzing" anything, but about what certain human actions always cause. For example, if you hate someone, he is likely to hate you back. It is normal for humans to react that way and that is not about analysis but about knowledge of what humans do (by nature of being human).

It is certainly possible for some actions to do good (for example, Trump being adamant about deporting illegal aliens, especially the criminals), is a good thing. The problem that HE has created (because he is who he is) is that the way he is doing it (by attacking or arresting anyone that LOOKS illegal) is causing problems that are bad and negative. In simple words, his actions do not need to be analyzed to know that he is bringing harm to Americans simply because of the tactics he is using to accomplish the goal.

Simply stated "the end does not justify the means used"

When are you going to wake up and simply realize that Trump is a bad person and also an incompetent person that will bring more harm than good to this nation, SIMPLY BECAUSE of the person he is?

Another cop out thread, others can’t make you do anything unless you are weak minded, your dislike for Trump is on you not Trump, just like I don’t like Trumps Big Beautiful Bill, Trump didn’t make me dislike it, I dislike it because I don’t like excessive spending.

I dislike many of your predictions, your arrogance, bigotry and trying to sucker people into investing in loser stocks. You had nothing to do with me disliking you, I tend to dislike arrogant assholes, which you are one, you never admit mistakes you instead justify your mistakes, that is of low character.

When are you going to wake up and take responsibility for your actions. This liberal cop out is just plain stupid.

 

[Papageorgio]

Ever hear of the renowned Republican president named Ronald Reagan?

I am all for strategic tariffs it helps even the playing field and Reagan wanted that as well. He didn’t like the way Japan was tariffing and so Reagan imposed them on Japan to get them to get back into free trade.

 

[Papageorgio]

You truly are a cult member as you dismiss everything that you are shown that you do not like.

Let me ask you a simple question, using this response given. "If you are going to have a heart transplant, do you ever ask the doctor that you have chosen, what his track record with heart transplants is? or do you simply believe him when he says "I can do it!"

I am 80 years old and I have had quite a few important and potentially life-changing operations in recent years, and though I generally trust the doctors at the VA, I have always checked fully their track records with the operation that they are going to do with me, before I allow them to do it.

This is in something I have done in spite of the fact that I know that doctors at the VA are not in it for their personal gain/pocketbook.

You used the heart-transplant doctor as an example of being competent in doing his job, then why do you not use the same ideology with Trump? After all and throughout his life he has failed a lot more times than being successful:

View attachment 1217495

If your heart transplant doctor had failed more times than succeeded, would you look for another doctor? Or trust this doctor because he said. "I can do it!"

And yet with all his failures he is more accomplished than you. You give out advice that is simply untrue and wrong then instead of admitting you made a mistake you double down. Very dishonest, arrogant and you are just a grifter.

 

[SweetTea]

You truly are a cult member as you dismiss everything that you are shown that you do not like.

Let me ask you a simple question, using this response given. "If you are going to have a heart transplant, do you ever ask the doctor that you have chosen, what his track record with heart transplants is? or do you simply believe him when he says "I can do it!"

I am 80 years old and I have had quite a few important and potentially life-changing operations in recent years, and though I generally trust the doctors at the VA, I have always checked fully their track records with the operation that they are going to do with me, before I allow them to do it.

This is in something I have done in spite of the fact that I know that doctors at the VA are not in it for their personal gain/pocketbook.

You used the heart-transplant doctor as an example of being competent in doing his job, then why do you not use the same ideology with Trump? After all and throughout his life he has failed a lot more times than being successful:

View attachment 1217495

If your heart transplant doctor had failed more times than succeeded, would you look for another doctor? Or trust this doctor because he said. "I can do it!"

For starters, it is very diffcult to say that Trump was not successful. He net worth increased dramatically over the years. Sure, he had some failures, but by all accounts he has been successful.

Secondly, you missed my point. My point was that many anti-Trumpers don't like him because of his personality. They don't care about results, his personality "trumps" anything he does. That is a very idealistic way of looking at things. I know that I was doing much better under Trump during his first term pre-COVID. I know that I am doing better now than I was under Biden. I don't care if Trump hurts people's feelings or not. The proof is in the pudding. If we didn't have so many child-like minded, idealistic people in this country and around the world, particularly in Western Europe, this wouldn't be an issue.

 

[SweetTea]

Ever hear of the renowned Republican president named Ronald Reagan?

Yes, and I disagree with his take on tariffs. He was wrong. It happens.

 

[Bitterhook]

My dislike of Trump was created by Trump himself.

All my life, my guidelines for behavior have followed the idea that a person needs to have morals, ethics, principles and humanity based on human rights (you do not want to do unto others what you do not want them to do unto you).

Most people have at least ONE of those guidelines in their personality, if not more or all. As such, they may be dislikable to a certain degree with the degree being what they do that is right, compared to what they do that is wrong. For example, Lying is against what morals stand for, but "sometimes lying is necessary to accomplish other goals that are worthy-to-all (such as accomplishing humanity for those that need it)", meaning that it is not all bad.

When I realized that Trump has zero of them (guidelines), my dislike/hate became tangible and strong. I am 100% against the kind of person Trump is.

When you can prove that I am wrong in that evaluation of Trump, I will pay attention to your posts.

This means that if you can show me anything that Trump has ever done UNSELFISHLY (without gaining some benefit for himself), I will acknowledge that I am wrong.

By the way, this is NOT about "analyzing" anything, but about what certain human actions always cause. For example, if you hate someone, he is likely to hate you back. It is normal for humans to react that way and that is not about analysis but about knowledge of what humans do (by nature of being human).

It is certainly possible for some actions to do good (for example, Trump being adamant about deporting illegal aliens, especially the criminals), is a good thing. The problem that HE has created (because he is who he is) is that the way he is doing it (by attacking or arresting anyone that LOOKS illegal) is causing problems that are bad and negative. In simple words, his actions do not need to be analyzed to know that he is bringing harm to Americans simply because of the tactics he is using to accomplish the goal.

Simply stated "the end does not justify the means used"

When are you going to wake up and simply realize that Trump is a bad person and also an incompetent person that will bring more harm than good to this nation, SIMPLY BECAUSE of the person he is?

Thanks for diving all the way off into your politics and I doubt the market will suffer your absence of discussion.