The Gold and Silver Thread

[editec]

What is the underlying reason gold is climbing?

Isn't it a loss in confidence?

Now imagine what happens when/if confidence returns.

What happens to the gold market when the Glen Beck retail gold purchasing stops?

Of course, this scenario is premised on the possiblity that something happens that will restore the confidence (on Main Street) in our government and its currency.

So if you're thinking that that isn't likely anytime in the near future, I can't argue with that theory, either.

I know I do not have to remind any of you folks who are actual traders what happened to the price of gold after the big run up in the late 70s.

It could happen again, could it not?

Assuming that the economy begins to recover and the man in the street stops worrying about hyperinflation, of course.

 

[Trajan]

You're just pissed because I nailed it so well!!

Not to rub it in, but I also told you to buy the long bond in February. If you would have, you would have made at least 20% in 6 months on an essentially risk-less trade (that's before the dividends too ) ...

I like you man , yada yada- know you a long time, yada yada- but let me share this with you amigo, 3 things my grandfather god rest his soul told me and have stood the test of time; that half a point in gambling has killed more guys than ww2, never ever underestimate another persons greed and, there is no such thing as risk free....

you know I am not a day trader, I am ion this for the long haul....I am glad for you and whomever makes a buck....I got in at 998 and will sit like a hen on the golden egg, pun intended, when it hits 2k, peace out, I get up and walk away from the table.

No worries my man. You do what you feel you need to do. It's your money. But I do have a few questions...

Why $2000? Is that a magic number ?? What if it drops to $1500? Will you sell then? What if it drops to $998? What will you do? I don't care what you do, but personally, before I make any investment I establish a game plan, and then I stick with it. A lot of money has been lost due to emotional driven decisions made in the heat of the moment.

Bulls and Bears make money; Pigs get slaughtered.

Don't be a pig!

oh hell no, I have my chicken shit number and have said so, 1500.

Risk aversion and NOT being a pig says, 2K and out. A guy like me? who just dabbles in blue chips and has 'house' ( corp worker stock) and doesn't day trade etc? ...making a 100% return? dude, thats heaven, thats a killing minus a machine gun, I don't care and you'll never hear me cry if it hits say 2500....if folks have the balls to go that far, power to them. I got in on a lark, looking for a 20% pop....look at me now

Like the man says you gotta know when to hold'em and know when to fold'em and execute come what may.

 

[Toro]

Gold has gone up because there has been a loss of confidence in fiat currencies, occasional bursts of fear, a lack of supply coming onto the market, growing wealth in the developing nations and momentum.

The loss of confidence in fiat currencies is the primary reason IMHO. When confidence returns, gold will get crushed. But governments around the world continue to pursue policies which undermine confidence in fiat currencies. Thus, the bull market in gold continues.

 

[Toro]

You're just pissed because I nailed it so well!!

Not to rub it in, but I also told you to buy the long bond in February. If you would have, you would have made at least 20% in 6 months on an essentially risk-less trade (that's before the dividends too ) ...

I like you man , yada yada- know you a long time, yada yada- but let me share this with you amigo, 3 things my grandfather god rest his soul told me and have stood the test of time; that half a point in gambling has killed more guys than ww2, never ever underestimate another persons greed and, there is no such thing as risk free....

you know I am not a day trader, I am ion this for the long haul....I am glad for you and whomever makes a buck....I got in at 998 and will sit like a hen on the golden egg, pun intended, when it hits 2k, peace out, I get up and walk away from the table.

No worries my man. You do what you feel you need to do. It's your money. But I do have a few questions...

Why $2000? Is that a magic number ?? What if it drops to $1500? Will you sell then? What if it drops to $998? What will you do? I don't care what you do, but personally, before I make any investment I establish a game plan, and then I stick with it. A lot of money has been lost due to emotional driven decisions made in the heat of the moment.

Bulls and Bears make money; Pigs get slaughtered.

Don't be a pig!

I've made a lot of money being a pig!

But I wouldn't recommend others do the same.

 

[KissMy]

I like you man , yada yada- know you a long time, yada yada- but let me share this with you amigo, 3 things my grandfather god rest his soul told me and have stood the test of time; that half a point in gambling has killed more guys than ww2, never ever underestimate another persons greed and, there is no such thing as risk free....

you know I am not a day trader, I am ion this for the long haul....I am glad for you and whomever makes a buck....I got in at 998 and will sit like a hen on the golden egg, pun intended, when it hits 2k, peace out, I get up and walk away from the table.

No worries my man. You do what you feel you need to do. It's your money. But I do have a few questions...

Why $2000? Is that a magic number ?? What if it drops to $1500? Will you sell then? What if it drops to $998? What will you do? I don't care what you do, but personally, before I make any investment I establish a game plan, and then I stick with it. A lot of money has been lost due to emotional driven decisions made in the heat of the moment.

Bulls and Bears make money; Pigs get slaughtered.

Don't be a pig!

I've made a lot of money being a pig!

But I wouldn't recommend others do the same.

Pigs make the most money when the animal spirits cause the majority to stampede driving prices parabolic. Don't bail out until the majority of the heard are in a full on stampede. Right now only about 20% are running for the gold.

 

[Toro]

No worries my man. You do what you feel you need to do. It's your money. But I do have a few questions...

Why $2000? Is that a magic number ?? What if it drops to $1500? Will you sell then? What if it drops to $998? What will you do? I don't care what you do, but personally, before I make any investment I establish a game plan, and then I stick with it. A lot of money has been lost due to emotional driven decisions made in the heat of the moment.

Bulls and Bears make money; Pigs get slaughtered.

Don't be a pig!

I've made a lot of money being a pig!

But I wouldn't recommend others do the same.

Pigs make the most money when the animal spirits cause the majority to stampede driving prices parabolic. Don't bail out until the majority of the heard are in a full on stampede. Right now only about 20% are running for the gold.

I'll take really big positions and bail at the first site of any danger whatsoever. If I'm wrong selling, I'll buy it back at higher prices.

But to do this successfully, you have to pay very close attention and be willing to live with the volatility, which most people can't do. Sometimes I can't do it.

 

[KissMy]

I've made a lot of money being a pig!

But I wouldn't recommend others do the same.

Pigs make the most money when the animal spirits cause the majority to stampede driving prices parabolic. Don't bail out until the majority of the heard are in a full on stampede. Right now only about 20% are running for the gold.

I'll take really big positions and bail at the first site of any danger whatsoever. If I'm wrong selling, I'll buy it back at higher prices.

But to do this successfully, you have to pay very close attention and be willing to live with the volatility, which most people can't do. Sometimes I can't do it.

I can see a case for larger swings in gold going foreword. With the exchanges adjusting the reserve requirements & the central bankers buying more gold they will have more leverage to coordinate & swing the market to shake the average citizen out. They will make it hard for us to pick the market turns.

 

[Toro]

Oops! So much for that gold short! The yellow metal is at $1880 on the bad jobs number.

I still think gold looks very extended here. I like silver better, which is trading in an uptrending channel.

 

[Ernie S.]

Considering the dow is headed to tank this morning, short term gold looks good.
Do you see $1,900 today?

 

[Trajan]

I was looking thru my coins and custom jewelery yesterday, I have an 1811 Napoleonic 20 franc piece set in 24 ct. gold mounting with matching chain as a necklace....acquired it , had it made for 500 bucks 15 years ago.......my signet ring is an ancient Trajan Silver Denarius, Extra Fine, in a 24 ct. gold ring setting.....15 years ago? 260 for the coin, another 400 for the ring and mounting..... I could unload these both for 4k right now...unreal.

 

[editec]

Gold has gone up because there has been a loss of confidence in fiat currencies, occasional bursts of fear, a lack of supply coming onto the market, growing wealth in the developing nations and momentum.

The loss of confidence in fiat currencies is the primary reason IMHO. When confidence returns, gold will get crushed. But governments around the world continue to pursue policies which undermine confidence in fiat currencies. Thus, the bull market in gold continues.

Yeah that's exactly the problem in investing now, is it not?

Pricing isnt based on market fundamentals, but rather the market is now driven by what the government do or do not do.

In other words, when the Insiders elect, they can control markets by RUMORS or what they may or may not do.

They can set up the buying public like bowling pins by touting one rumor, and when they elect, they can crush a bull or bear market by doing or implying they will do something else!

FROTH MARKETS, folks.

Unless you have an INSIDERS perspective, unless you have POLITICAL INSIDER information, you are powerless to make any kind of rational decision about future pricing.

I do NOT believe that these markets are on the level.

 

[Toro]

Considering the dow is headed to tank this morning, short term gold looks good.
Do you see $1,900 today?

Unlikely.

A contrarian with cahones would short it here. I'm not that guy!

I would like to see gold consolidate for awhile, then make an assault on new highs.

 

[Trajan]

Considering the dow is headed to tank this morning, short term gold looks good.
Do you see $1,900 today?

Unlikely.

A contrarian with cahones would short it here. I'm not that guy!

I would like to see gold consolidate for awhile, then make an assault on new highs.

no worries Toro, I've made a few calls, we'll stumble around within a $75 range till Obamas speech..then, zoom.

 

[Toro]

Elections in Germany were bad for Merkel this weekend. The bailouts were an issue. Stocks are Europe are getting hammered and gold is pushing $1900. Silver is off. Italian bonds are down for the 11th day in a row.

For me, it is around here were gold must stop going up. If gold busts through the highs, I will cover my small short position and look to go long.

 

[Ernie S.]

Considering the dow is headed to tank this morning, short term gold looks good.
Do you see $1,900 today?

Unlikely.

A contrarian with cahones would short it here. I'm not that guy!

I would like to see gold consolidate for awhile, then make an assault on new highs.

OK couple days late, but I just saw $1,900. The market is down 250. (Friday)
I'll admit I'm no expert, but a year ago, I predicted $1,800 in mid August and 2 grand by Christmas.
My thought is that gold will level off around 2,200 by next June and fall, corresponding to a stock market recovery as it becomes clearer that there will be a change in leadership.

 

[Trajan]

Elections in Germany were bad for Merkel this weekend. The bailouts were an issue. Stocks are Europe are getting hammered and gold is pushing $1900. Silver is off. Italian bonds are down for the 11th day in a row.

For me, it is around here were gold must stop going up. If gold busts through the highs, I will cover my small short position and look to go long.

yes they did, she dropped 5.5% in her home state. The SPD looks posied to drop the CDU Merkel and build their own colation.

The rubes have woken up in full. the bailout appetite in Germany can only sink lower. *shrugs*

 

[Toro]

Elections in Germany were bad for Merkel this weekend. The bailouts were an issue. Stocks are Europe are getting hammered and gold is pushing $1900. Silver is off. Italian bonds are down for the 11th day in a row.

For me, it is around here were gold must stop going up. If gold busts through the highs, I will cover my small short position and look to go long.

yes they did, she dropped 5.5% in her home state. The SPD looks posied to drop the CDU Merkel and build their own colation.

The rubes have woken up in full. the bailout appetite in Germany can only sink lower. *shrugs*

Probably.

If so, it means lower stocks and probably higher gold prices.

European stocks are at support. Gold is at resistance. Something has got to give.

Also, the index of coincident and leading indicators I have referenced in the past and has been remarkably prescient is now saying the economy is back in mild expansion after being negative for a few months.

 

[Paulie]

Gold has gone up because there has been a loss of confidence in fiat currencies, occasional bursts of fear, a lack of supply coming onto the market, growing wealth in the developing nations and momentum.

The loss of confidence in fiat currencies is the primary reason IMHO. When confidence returns, gold will get crushed. But governments around the world continue to pursue policies which undermine confidence in fiat currencies. Thus, the bull market in gold continues.

Yeah that's exactly the problem in investing now, is it not?

Pricing isnt based on market fundamentals, but rather the market is now driven by what the government do or do not do.

It's still based on market fundamentals, it's just that governments are doing as much as possible to affect those fundamentals.

 

[Toro]

CNBC World just flashed Greek 1 year bonds were yielding 82%.

That's ridiculous.

 

[Toro]

Gold hit an all-time high overnight at $1921. It then promptly plunged $60.

A pullback would be healthy.