Trajan
conscientia mille testes
aside from Bernbanks speech the Bureau of Econ Analysis will release their adjustment to the Q2 gdp number....any bets?
I say...sub 1%
will Bernbank show any garter ala QE3?
Last edited:
The Gold and Silver Thread
- Thread starter Toro
- Start date
aside from Bernbanks speech the Bureau of Econ Analysis will release their adjustment to the Q2 gdp number....any bets?
I say...sub 1%
will Bernbank show any garter ala QE3?
Toro
Diamond Member
- Thread starter
- #603
Thanks. Much appreciated.
Of course, I am often wrong. And I could be here too. The trick to surviving is to be able to recognize when you are wrong and getting out once you realize it. If there is just one thing I can emphasize as strongly as possible, it is this - if you are wrong about a trade or an investment, sell it, don't rationalize keeping it for other reasons, even if you are selling at a loss. You can always buy it back if you realize you were right in the first place. But if you are right about being wrong and you sell it, you will most likely save yourself a lot of money and stress.
The caveat to what I just wrote - well, one of the many caveats - is that a time will come, I believe, when gold goes parabolic, and stops acting to the rhythms and patterns it has acted in the past.
If you study the Tech bubble of 1999-2000, you find that there were a few scary double-digit declines that occurred over a few days during the final ramp up, only for the market to turn and go straight back up to new highs. That time may be coming soon.
Gold $3,000? - Portfolio Insights by Brett Arends - MarketWatch
There is a lot in this article in which I agree, particularly the part about ownership. Despite the noise, not many people own gold, and few institutional portfolio managers own gold. When I talk to other money managers, most still don't have either gold or gold stocks in their portfolios.
Last edited:
KissMy
Free Breast Exam
What do you think gold will do if Bernanke does not ease any more & leaves the jobs situation to congress?
Toro
Diamond Member
- Thread starter
- #607
I am a bull on gold. However, the gold bull market will end like all bull markets - badly. I'm just not sure when.
Gold bottomed in 1998. Thus, we are 13 years into the gold bull market, and probably in the final third. I think that there will be an ultimate blow off top in gold, and it might happen within the next few years.
Most people do not own gold, I believe. However, the sentiment on gold is certainly changing. In a recent poll, when asked, more people believe that gold is the best long-term investment than anything else. As a gold bull, that scares me, and I take it seriously. I do think we have some more to run, but we now have to start planning for the ultimate end to the gold bull market.
The Scariest Gold Data Point I Have Seen | Kid Dynamite's World
"Stocks" was the top pick at the end of the Tech bubble. "Real estate" was the top pick at the end of the housing bubble. "Gold" will be the top pick at the end of the gold bubble.
Gold bottomed in 1998. Thus, we are 13 years into the gold bull market, and probably in the final third. I think that there will be an ultimate blow off top in gold, and it might happen within the next few years.
Most people do not own gold, I believe. However, the sentiment on gold is certainly changing. In a recent poll, when asked, more people believe that gold is the best long-term investment than anything else. As a gold bull, that scares me, and I take it seriously. I do think we have some more to run, but we now have to start planning for the ultimate end to the gold bull market.
The Scariest Gold Data Point I Have Seen | Kid Dynamite's World
"Stocks" was the top pick at the end of the Tech bubble. "Real estate" was the top pick at the end of the housing bubble. "Gold" will be the top pick at the end of the gold bubble.
Last edited:
Toro
Diamond Member
- Thread starter
- #608
Gold hit $1840 on Friday after bottoming at $1704 on Thursday. That is an 8% return, right on target with the 5%-8% bounce after the initial sell-offs of the past two ramps in the price of gold. Today it reversed downward fairly hard.
If the pattern continues to hold, we would expect an 11% to 17% decline from $1840, or downside price targets of $1640 for an 11% decline and $1530 for a 17% decline.
If the pattern continues to hold, we would expect an 11% to 17% decline from $1840, or downside price targets of $1640 for an 11% decline and $1530 for a 17% decline.
Zander
Platinum Member
I am staying short...for now.
Trajan
conscientia mille testes
I am wearing my shorts....for now..;O)
Zander
Platinum Member
You're just pissed because I nailed it so well!!
Not to rub it in, but I also told you to buy the long bond in February. If you would have, you would have made at least 20% in 6 months on an essentially risk-less trade (that's before the dividends too
) ...
KissMy
Free Breast Exam
I went short to hedge my physical gold. Major head & shoulders pattern has formed so I feel gold is at least going through the 50 day moving average & near the 200 day moving average.
The Fed is not going to accelerate the printing press for now, they will maintain the low for longtime interest rate cruising speed for now. Gold will also have to back off the accelerator & return to it's 100-200 day average cruising speed.
The Fed is not going to accelerate the printing press for now, they will maintain the low for longtime interest rate cruising speed for now. Gold will also have to back off the accelerator & return to it's 100-200 day average cruising speed.
Toro
Diamond Member
- Thread starter
- #613
I think a garden-variety correction is ahead for gold.
Having said that, it may happen faster than in the past, or it may not happen at all. Absolutely nothing has changed over the past week to think that the gold bull market is over, except maybe the realization that we aren't going into a recession. But a recession isn't an underpinning of the gold bull market. Nothing has changed in Europe. Two Greek banks merging solves nothing. We were just dramatically overbought in gold and there was too much fear in the world. I don't like the fear trade for gold because it is too ephemeral. I like the debasing-currencies-indefinitely trade, because the structural foundations are much more solid.
Having said that, it may happen faster than in the past, or it may not happen at all. Absolutely nothing has changed over the past week to think that the gold bull market is over, except maybe the realization that we aren't going into a recession. But a recession isn't an underpinning of the gold bull market. Nothing has changed in Europe. Two Greek banks merging solves nothing. We were just dramatically overbought in gold and there was too much fear in the world. I don't like the fear trade for gold because it is too ephemeral. I like the debasing-currencies-indefinitely trade, because the structural foundations are much more solid.
KissMy
Free Breast Exam
From Toro's link: The Scariest Gold Data Point I Have Seen
34% 0f 59% = 20% likely own gold. That was about 5% at the beginning of the year. This is a 4 fold increase but is it enough to bust a bubble yet? After-all 68.4% of families owned homes in the housing bubble. There may likely be one more even stronger parabolic blast higher in gold ahead if the Fed hints at QE3.
The survey did not ask the question “do you currently own gold or have gold-related exposure as a part of your investment portfolio?” That would have been more straightforward, and an even better indicator. The survey did, however, ask if respondents had money invested in the stock market (59% said “yes”– and the bullishness on gold was consistent amongst those who were stock owners (34% answered that they were most bullish on gold as a long term investment amongst both the entire national survey, and those who were stock owners).
34% 0f 59% = 20% likely own gold. That was about 5% at the beginning of the year. This is a 4 fold increase but is it enough to bust a bubble yet? After-all 68.4% of families owned homes in the housing bubble. There may likely be one more even stronger parabolic blast higher in gold ahead if the Fed hints at QE3.
Toro
Diamond Member
- Thread starter
- #615
Gold popped this morning on the Chicago Fed Pres talking on CNBC this morning. The high this morning sits below yesterday's high. This could be a near term shorting opportunity. However, gold is in a powerful bull market and all shorts are near term trades.
Silver remains in an uptrending channel.
Silver remains in an uptrending channel.
KissMy
Free Breast Exam
Another Fed decenter Minneapolis Kocherlakota is now turning dovish. Not just Chicago Charles Evans.
We are now to 2 descending fed votes. QE3 is more likely.
Greece is in negotiated default to Euro banks.
Euro banks may require bailout / recapitalization.
Greece bonds are not marked to market but are marked to fictional model.
More currency must be printed.
We are now to 2 descending fed votes. QE3 is more likely.
Greece is in negotiated default to Euro banks.
Euro banks may require bailout / recapitalization.
Greece bonds are not marked to market but are marked to fictional model.
More currency must be printed.
Last edited:
Trajan
conscientia mille testes
yea I said as much 2 weeks ago on the Euro thread. read the Jackson Hole speeches, especially Lagarde's....
I said so 3 weeks ago and stand but this too, there will be another TARP here in the US.
And one in Europe, they won't call it that but they will 'enact ' one...( they have been half stepping it so far ).
Trajan
conscientia mille testes
You're just pissed because I nailed it so well!!
Not to rub it in, but I also told you to buy the long bond in February. If you would have, you would have made at least 20% in 6 months on an essentially risk-less trade (that's before the dividends too
I like you man , yada yada- know you a long time, yada yada- but let me share this with you amigo, 3 things my grandfather god rest his soul told me and have stood the test of time; that half a point in gambling has killed more guys than ww2, never ever underestimate another persons greed and, there is no such thing as risk free....
you know I am not a day trader, I am ion this for the long haul....I am glad for you and whomever makes a buck....I got in at 998 and will sit like a hen on the golden egg, pun intended, when it hits 2k, peace out, I get up and walk away from the table.
Zander
Platinum Member
No worries my man. You do what you feel you need to do. It's your money. But I do have a few questions...
You're just pissed because I nailed it so well!!
Not to rub it in, but I also told you to buy the long bond in February. If you would have, you would have made at least 20% in 6 months on an essentially risk-less trade (that's before the dividends too
I like you man , yada yada- know you a long time, yada yada- but let me share this with you amigo, 3 things my grandfather god rest his soul told me and have stood the test of time; that half a point in gambling has killed more guys than ww2, never ever underestimate another persons greed and, there is no such thing as risk free....
you know I am not a day trader, I am ion this for the long haul....I am glad for you and whomever makes a buck....I got in at 998 and will sit like a hen on the golden egg, pun intended, when it hits 2k, peace out, I get up and walk away from the table.
Why $2000? Is that a magic number ?? What if it drops to $1500? Will you sell then? What if it drops to $998? What will you do? I don't care what you do, but personally, before I make any investment I establish a game plan, and then I stick with it. A lot of money has been lost due to emotional driven decisions made in the heat of the moment.
Bulls and Bears make money; Pigs get slaughtered.
Don't be a pig!
Similar threads
